Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Ukraine - next steps

According to news this morning the anticipated Russian spring offensive in eastern Ukraine has begun, with quick progress likely expected before the WWII victory celebrations in Moscow on May 9.

Meanwhile, resupplied and reinforced Ukrainian forces have been digging in, ready to take on the onslaught.

It is important to remember that Ukraine is a big country and has access to vast amounts of supplies from outside sources, so it will not be a pushover, by any stretch of the imagination.

The previous Russian strategy of using WWII style panzer attacks failed miserably in face of modern shoulder mounted missiles like the American Javelin that turned tanks into rolling coffins.

So, as the Russians see themselves being stalled in their intentions, they will likely turn to interrupting supply lines to Ukraine from outside sources.

And that means an escalation in the conflict over time.

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