Monday, March 2, 2026

What is the relationship between Iran's regular army and the revolutionary guards?

Iran maintains two parallel military establishments by deliberate constitutional design: the Artesh (regular army), a conventional force that defends national sovereignty and borders, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC / Sepah-e Pasdaran), an ideological force whose constitutional mandate is to protect the Islamic Revolution and its achievements. This dual structure functions as a "coup-proofing" strategy that keeps both forces in a permanent state of managed rivalry under the Supreme Leader's authority.blog.roninsgrips+3

Origins of the Split

After the 1979 revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini distrusted the existing Imperial Army as potentially loyal to the exiled Shah. The new regime brutally purged the officer corps but chose not to dissolve the army entirely; instead, Khomeini simultaneously created the IRGC from revolutionary militias as a counterweight. The clerics saw value in keeping both organizations alive — the Artesh provided conventional military capability while the IRGC guaranteed ideological loyalty, and together they served as checks and balances against each other.mei+4

Constitutional Missions

The two forces have formally distinct roles enshrined in Iran's constitution:wikipedia+2

  • Artesh: Tasked with defending Iran's territorial integrity, borders, and airspace in a traditional military capacity. It is avowedly apolitical and claims loyalty to the nation rather than to any particular regime.criticalthreats+2

  • IRGC: Mandated under Article 150 to guard "the Revolution and its achievements." It focuses on internal security, asymmetric warfare, missile forces, and extraterritorial operations through its Quds Force. It also controls the Basij paramilitary militia.politis+2

Command Structure

Both forces ultimately answer to the Supreme Leader (currently Ali Khamenei), who serves as commander-in-chief. A Joint Armed Forces General Staff nominally coordinates them, and both commanders sit on the Supreme National Security Council, but in practice the Artesh and the IRGC retain separate chains of command, separate joint staffs, and separate ground, naval, and air branches. The Supreme Leader appoints the IRGC commander directly, reinforcing the IRGC's loyalty to the clerical leadership rather than to civilian government authorities.britannica+3

Asymmetry in Power and Resources

Despite the Artesh fielding roughly 350,000 soldiers compared to the IRGC's approximately 125,000–190,000, the IRGC holds a dominant position in virtually every dimension except heavy conventional hardware.dni+1

DimensionArteshIRGC
Personnel~350,000~125,000–190,000 (plus 90,000+ Basij)
MissionTerritorial defenseRevolution defense, asymmetric warfare, foreign ops
Political accessLimited; avowedly apoliticalDirect access to Supreme Leader
BudgetSmaller, dependent on state allocationLarger; vast economic holdings beyond military budget
Prestige/RecruitmentLower priority for top recruitsAccess to best recruits, higher prestige
Heavy equipmentControls most tanks, fighter jetsMissiles, drones, naval fast-attack craft
Economic activityMinimalExtensive conglomerates, construction, oil, telecom

aei+3

The IRGC has built a massive economic empire through construction firms, import–export monopolies, and stakes in telecom and energy, giving it financial independence well beyond its official defense budget. IRGC officers (sardar) are generally more trusted, better compensated, and more politically connected than their Artesh counterparts, who have expressed discontent at their marginalization.brookings+2

Rivalry and Cooperation

The relationship is one of institutionalized rivalry punctuated by increasing operational cooperation:blog.roninsgrips+2

  • Rivalry: Overlapping responsibilities, doctrinal differences, and unequal resource allocation create persistent friction. The leadership deliberately sustains this tension to prevent either force from accumulating enough power to challenge the Supreme Leader.mei+2

  • Cooperation: In practice, the two forces have been compelled to work together in recent decades. During the campaign against ISIS in Iraq and the Syrian civil war, Artesh ground forces and transport aircraft were placed under IRGC command for deployments around Aleppo and elsewhere. Artesh special forces advisors from the 65th Airborne Brigade were sent to Syria under the auspices of the IRGC's Quds Force.washingtoninstitute+1

Proposals to merge the two forces have surfaced periodically since the Rafsanjani presidency, but Supreme Leader Khamenei has consistently blocked them, preferring to maintain the divided structure.[brookings]​

Recent Shifts

The IRGC's performance in its confrontation with Israel in 2024–25 has reportedly weakened its strategic standing, opening a window for the historically marginalized Artesh to assert greater influence. The Artesh has been reorienting itself from static border defense toward a quick-reaction and even limited expeditionary capability, redefining its constitutionally designated mission to include preemptive doctrine. Analysts suggest that the evolving balance of power between these two institutions will be pivotal to Iran's future political trajectory, particularly in any post-Khamenei succession scenario where the IRGC is expected to play the role of "kingmaker."geopoliticalfutures+3

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Latest on the battle fronts in Ukraine

Here is the latest picture of the Ukraine battlefield as of February 28, 2026:

Overall Situation

February 2026 has been described as one of the most intense months of the war, marked by massive Russian missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure, deep Ukrainian counter-strikes inside Russia, and ongoing US-mediated diplomatic talks that may shape the conflict's next phase. The front lines remain largely static, with Russia making only slow, grinding advances in select areas.[youtube]​[nytimes]​

Air War: Massive Russian Strikes

Russia launched at least four separate drone/missile barrages exceeding 400 projectiles each in February alone. On the night of February 25–26, Russian forces launched 420 drones and 39 missiles, including Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kh-101 cruise missiles, and large numbers of Shahed-type drones, primarily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Ukraine has been retaliating with its own long-range strikes, hitting Russian command posts, ammunition depots, and military assets across occupied territories and even inside Bryansk Oblast.[criticalthreats]​

Eastern Front (Donetsk)

Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia & Kherson)

  • Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated approximately 300 square kilometers of territory in an unspecified area of southern Ukraine, with President Zelensky attributing gains partly to SpaceX blocking Russian Starlink access.[criticalthreats]​

  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Oleksandrivka, liberating several villages southeast of that town.[criticalthreats]​

  • Russian forces continue limited ground assaults northeast of Kherson City toward the Antonivskyi Bridge.[criticalthreats]​

  • In the Zaporizhzhia region alone, Russian forces executed 448 assaults on 34 locations in a single day as recently as February 20.[aljazeera]​

Northern Front (Kharkiv & Sumy)

  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast (February 27) and northern Kharkiv Oblast (February 28) but made no confirmed territorial advances on either day.understandingwar+1

  • Russian drone operators from the Black Raven detachment are actively striking Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv direction.[criticalthreats]​

Diplomatic Backdrop

Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva began in mid-February alongside the fighting. Ceasefire negotiations have so far stalled, but international pressure on both sides is intensifying as the war enters its fourth year. On February 26, Russia repatriated the bodies of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers in exchange for those of 35 Russian personnel.wikipedia+1[youtube]​

War in the Middle East – February 28, 2026


Op Ed by Helge Nome


This morning, Israel and the US attacked the Islamic Republic of Iran with a stated goal of regime change

Iran responded in kind with multiple strikes across the Middle East with missiles and drones.

This moment has been a long time coming and now we in the rest of the world have to deal with the downstream implications.

As usual, predictions are that it will be over in a few weeks at most, for the great benefit of the people of Iran, but more so for the benefit of international oil and gas companies who support Donald Trump and his cohort.

I believe similar predictions are made for most wars, and Trump now claims to have killed the Iranian leader Ali Hosseini Khameneimaking observers think that the Islamic state will fold in short order.

From my perspective this is wishful thinking by people who don’t understand the nature of Islam: Fervent believers in militant Islam have no time for non-believers and this attack will likely be a call for the cause for countless thousands of people across the world against the “Zionists and their American lackeys”.

I think this attack has the potential to make the world a very unsafe pace for a lot of us, not least members of the Trump administration.

Message from Charles Aulds

80 years ago, on this date: 28 February 1946, Vietnam asked the US to support its struggle for independence against its French colonial occupier.




Ho Chi Mihn was the first Prime Minister and, later, the first President of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, founded as a constitutional republic in 1945. Able to speak fluently as well as read and write professionally in French, English, Russian, Cantonese and Mandarin as well as his mother tongue, Ho studied the US Declaration of Independence and based the constitution of his tiny new nation, seeking independence from a colonial occupier and recognition of its sovereignty on that document. In this telegram to US President Truman, he pleaded for American support for his new nation.  We know how that turned out.


Hell, he quoted the American Declaration of Independence directly (read the opening) in his own Declaration. Why? Because the United States once set a standard by which most of the world wanted to live ... a belief that there are certain natural rights that we all possess from birth.

The Vietnamese were claiming those rights and they were claiming the promise of America.
___
Charles

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Abraham Lake methane bubbles



Abraham Lake, located along the David Thompson Highway in western Alberta about 130 miles northwest of Calgary, is famous for its stunning display of frozen methane bubbles trapped beneath its winter ice.[1]

How the Bubbles Form

The phenomenon is rooted in simple biology. Bacteria on the lake bed feed on decomposing organic matter — submerged plants, tree limbs, and other debris — and expel methane gas as a byproduct. As the gas rises through the water and hits the freezing surface, the bubbles become trapped and suspended in the ice. Because Abraham Lake is an artificial reservoir, there is an unusually large amount of organic material on its bottom, making the concentration of methane especially high compared to natural lakes.[2][3][4]

Why Abraham Lake Stands Out

What makes Abraham Lake uniquely photogenic is the combination of abundant bubbles and remarkably clear ice. Strong winds regularly sweep across the lake, blowing away snow and polishing the ice into a smooth, glass-like surface that reveals the bubbles beneath in stunning detail. As the ice thickens through winter, successive layers of bubbles stack up, giving the lake the surreal look of a giant, frozen lava lamp. There may also be a component from natural gas seeping through the bedrock underlying the lake, which Alberta has in abundance.[3][5][1]

Best Time to Visit

The prime viewing window is typically mid-January to late February, after the lake freezes in late December and enough bubbles have accumulated in the thickening ice. Good spots to explore include Preachers Point and the area near Cline Creek, where the water is deeper and the bubbles tend to be large and clearly visible against the dark blue-green water beneath.[3][1]

Climate Implications

While spectacular, the bubbles carry a sobering environmental message. When Abraham Lake thaws each spring, the trapped methane is released directly into the atmosphere. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and this process plays out across thousands of northern lakes from Alberta to Siberia — with the greatest concentrations found in the Arctic, where bubbles can remain frozen for centuries. Scientists monitor lakes like Abraham as indicators of how warming temperatures may accelerate methane release from thawing organic matter globally.[6][7]


  • https://www.accuweather.com/en/travel/methane-bubbles-transform-canadian-lake-into-lava-lamp/1146458   
  • https://www.reddit.com/r/EarthPorn/comments/et1d57/the_spectacle_of_frozen_methane_bubbles_at/ 
  • https://adventurealberta.ca/abraham-lake-bubbles/   
  • https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/abraham-lake-north-saskatchewan-river-methane-bubbles-frozen-ice-1.5424865 
  • https://hikebiketravel.com/abraham-lake-bubbles/ 
  • https://www.bbcearth.com/news/dazzling-bubbles-with-a-deadly-core 
  • https://naturecanada.ca/news/blog/the-story-behind-this-alberta-lakes-frozen-bubbles-and-what-they-say-about-our-changing-planet/ 
  • https://abrahamlake.com/Ice-Bubbles-at-Abraham-Lake.html 
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vd4le1tuYZg 
  • https://nordeggadventures.ca/guides/winter/abraham-lake-ice-bubbles/ 
  • https://www.abrahamlake.com 
  • https://davidthompsonresort.com/activity/abraham-lake-ice-walk/ 
  • https://www.abrahamlake.com/Frozen-Methane-Bubbles-at-Abraham-Lake.html 
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33vpNPRbEqA 
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBLP6cZSW_s 

Sunday, February 22, 2026

Message from Charles Aulds

What a surprise:  to learn too late that the United States is not only a poor neighbor, but an untrustworthy ally of Canada. The US has become active antagonist to Canada. An enemy. And not for the first time.


I was surprised to learn (and we were never taught this in school) that President Abraham Lincoln's Secretary of State, William Henry Seward, was determined to take Canada, one century and a half ago. Seward was a rabid expansionist. A true believer in America's "Manifest destiny."


It was Seward who negotiated the US purchase of the Danish West Indies in 1865. Today that's known as the US Virgin Islands.


It was Seward who bought Alaska from Russia two years later, in 1867.


It was Seward who tried to buy Greenland that same year (1867) from Denmark.


Seward wanted Greenland because (he said) that Canada, sandwiched between two large American states, would then inevitably become part of Canada. Canadians would have no other choice than to submit to US annexation.


It was in 1867 that the Province of Canada (what is now Ontario and Québec) and two British North American colonies (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia) united and became a sovereign nation. The year of Confederation (1867) is significant; it was not the result of coincidental timing.


Will Americans have a second civil war? Who really cares? This MAGA shit gotta stop sometime.

___

Charles