Fun Watching for Guys : )

 

Movement of jet stream patterns seems to have stalled over arctic regions right now compared to 10 years ago?

 

Your observation is well-grounded in a rapidly evolving area of climate science. Here's what the research shows:

The Core Mechanism: Arctic Amplification

The jet stream's behaviour is fundamentally driven by the temperature contrast between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes. As the Arctic warms, that temperature gradient weakens, and with it, the jet stream loses energy. The Arctic is now warming at nearly four times the global average rate — a phenomenon confirmed in the NOAA Arctic Report Card 2025. This enhanced Arctic warming reduces the equator-to-pole temperature difference, which through a principle called thermal wind balance directly implies a weaker jet stream.^{[1][2][3][4][5]}

Stalling and "Blocking" Events

When the jet stream weakens, it becomes wavier in the north-south (meridional) direction, and critically, it can get stuck — a phenomenon called atmospheric blocking. These Rossby waves (giant planetary-scale meanders in the jet stream) slow down, stall weather systems, and produce prolonged extremes: heat domes, cold snaps, floods, and droughts. Research shows blocking occurrence over the Barents Sea sector in the Arctic has significantly increased over the last 40 winters, driving stronger poleward transport of moisture and heat.^[6][7][8][9]

What Has Changed Over 10 Years

A major 2026 study in Nature Climate Change directly relevant to your observation found that over the past 75 years, wintertime variability in North Atlantic jet latitude and tilt has declined by 18% and 14% respectively — meaning the jet stream is spending more time locked in place rather than freely shifting. Arctic sea ice hit its lowest-ever winter maximum extent in the 47-year satellite record in March 2025, at 14.33 million km² — over 1.3 million km² below the 1981–2010 average. This record loss of reflective ice removes a key driver of the temperature gradient that keeps the jet stream moving.^[10][11]

The Scientific Debate

The picture isn't fully settled. A 2025 Dartmouth study using 125-year ice core records found that jet stream waviness was just as pronounced — or even more so — during several pre-industrial periods, questioning whether today's erratic behaviour is entirely attributable to climate change. A 2025 Nature modelling study also found minimal influence of future Arctic sea ice loss specifically on North Atlantic jet stream speed and waviness, arguing internal variability plays a larger role than sea ice loss alone. Meanwhile, other research points to a competing "tug-of-war": upper-troposphere warming in the tropics actually strengthens and shifts the jet poleward, partially countering the Arctic-amplification effect.^{[12][13][14][15]}

Net Observed Trends (1984–2023)

A comprehensive 2025 study of North American jet stream behaviour from 1984 to 2023 using ERA5 reanalysis data found the jet stream cores have shifted upward and poleward over time, with cyclical patterns of 5, 7, and 10 years superimposed on these trends. Fast upper-level jet winds are getting faster — but the meridional (wavy north-south) component is also intensifying at roughly 2% per degree of global-mean warming. The practical effect from Alberta's perspective is that when the jet stream dips south, it delivers prolonged cold outbreaks; when it locks north, it traps heat and drought conditions — both increasingly common in your region.^[16][17][18]

Bottom Line

Your perception of a stalling, less mobile jet stream over Arctic regions compared to a decade ago aligns with the majority of observational evidence — driven primarily by Arctic amplification and record sea ice loss. The outstanding scientific question is not whether the jet stream is changing, but exactly how much of the change is forced by Arctic warming versus natural internal variability, and how the competing tropical upper-atmosphere warming will interact with Arctic cooling in the coming decades.^{[15][11][4][1]}

⁂

• https://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/polar-vortex-how-jet-stream-and-climate-change-bring-cold-snaps  
• https://udayton.edu/magazine/2026/01/2025-extreme-weather.php 
• https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-03052-z 
• https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2025/  
• https://www.facebook.com/FisheriesOceansCanada/posts/the-arctic-is-warming-almost-four-times-faster-than-the-global-average-leading-t/1274888698007254/ 
• https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4455715/ 
• https://www.carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-climate-change-causing-more-blocking-weather-events/ 
• https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1677643/FULLTEXT01.pdf 
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xR2PSGlFHaI 
• https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03423-0 
• https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/arctic-sea-ice-sets-record-low-maximum-2025  
• https://home.dartmouth.edu/news/2025/06/study-winter-jet-stream-was-erratic-climate-change 
• https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/595/2025/ 
• https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00792-8 
• https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01262-y  
• https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12552637/ 
• https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01819-4 
• https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-21354-2 
• https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2506/egusphere-2024-2506.pdf 
• https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/climate-change-the-jet-stream 
• https://sebsnjaesnews.rutgers.edu/2024/02/how-climate-change-may-be-affecting-the-polar-vortex/ 
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex 
• https://www.downtoearth.org.in/natural-disasters/2025s-extreme-weather-had-the-jet-streams-fingerprints-all-over-it-from-flash-floods-to-hurricanes 
• https://phys.org/news/2020-02-jet-stream-wavier-arctic.html 
• https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/us-winter-storm-polar-vortex-climat-change 
• https://www.futura-sciences.com/en/the-jet-stream-is-going-off-the-rails-why-weather-is-becoming-more-and-more-unpredictable_24436/ 
• https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02022018/cold-weather-polar-vortex-jet-stream-explained-global-warming-arctic-ice-climate-change/ 
• https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28245/noaa_28245_DS1.pdf 
• https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2506/egusphere-2024-2506-ATC1.pdf 
• https://www.imk-tro.kit.edu/download/Masterarbeit_Christian_Schöder_komprimiert.pdf 
• https://phys.org/news/2025-07-insights-jet-stream-climate.html 
• https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024AV001399 
• https://lps25.esa.int/lps25-presentations/poster/Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Jet Streams Using Atmospheric Motion Vector Climate Data Records.pdf 
• https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL087796 
• https://www.iclr.org/wp-content/uploads/PDFS/Francis_Webinar_3-6-15.pdf 
• https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/canadian-centre-climate-services/basics/trends-projections/changes-sea-ice.html 
• https://phys.org/news/2025-12-extreme-weather-jet-stream-fingerprints.html 
• https://arxiv.org/html/2602.05083v1 
• https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2025EF006290 
• https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5660/egusphere-2025-5660.pdf 
• https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/cesindicators/sea-ice/2025/sea-ice-en.pdf 
• https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1n8s1lb/jet_stream_weirdness_detailed_overview_on_the/ 

Tamara Lich Speaks

My Stand Against Malicious Prosecution

Over four years have passed since my participation in the most peaceful and polite protest of all time; the Canadian Freedom Convoy. It’s been over four years since Chris Barber and I were arrested on the streets of Ottawa, mere days following the unconstitutional and unlawful invocation of the Emergencies Act by the Liberal government. The invocation saw bank accounts frozen, insurance policies suspended, the forceful, violent removal of peaceful Canadians, and truckers and supporters arrested.

For our part, Chris and I endured the longest mischief trial in the history of the Commonwealth. The Crown prosecutor made repeated attempts to charge me with a breach of conditions violation and remanded to custody until trial; and on one occasion he was successful. Chris and I convicted in April of 2025 of mischief and sentenced October 7, 2025, to 18 months of house arrest. Granted some time served, my sentence will conclude on January 21, 2027. 

I have secured the services of a civil litigation lawyer from Toronto based Loopstra Nixon and have launched a lawsuit against the Ottawa Police Service, the Ottawa Police Services Board, the Attorney General of Ontario, the original Crown Prosecutor on our file, the two Ottawa Police Services detectives assigned to our mischief case, and His Majesty the King in right of Ontario for malicious prosecution and negligent investigation. My goal is to ensure transparency, accountability, and justice are brought to those involved in decisions and actions leading to the unprecedented treatment I was subjected to will never happen to another Canadian ever again.

BACKGROUND:

June 16, 2022, after a successful bail variation allowing me to enter Ontario, I attended the Justice Center for Constitutional Freedoms. George Jonas Freedom Award dinner in Toronto. I had the honour of being the recipient of the award in 2022. A group photo was taken as we were exiting the event; it included Tom Marazzo. While there was a No Contact order in place between myself an Mr. Marazzo, my conditions explicitly stated I was allowed to communicate with him in the presence of counsel. Despite being surrounded by lawyers (some of whom were representing both myself and Tom), the photo was sent to the Crown prosecutors office in Ottawa. The Crown responded by issuing a Canada wide warrant for my arrest with little to no investigation on his part, the part of his office, or by the homicide detectives assigned to our mischief case. A phone call of inquiry was not even made to my criminal defence lawyer, Lawrence Greenspon. 

On June 27, 2022, while commuting home from work, I was pulled over by the Medicine Hat City Police a block from my home. I assumed it was a random stop and questioned whether I had been speeding on the highway. As I handed the young officer my license, registration, and insurance, he informed me that he was arresting me on a Canada wide warrant. I laughed honestly and naively. It seemed so surreal that it couldn’t possibly be true. For my participation in the Freedom Convoy, I was facing a non-violent, mischief charge. Mischief is a summary offence in Canada, generally dealt with through fines or probation, especially for a first-time offender.

In a move reserved for violent murderers, sexual offenders and drug traffickers, the Ottawa Crown prosecutor issued a Canada wide warrant for my arrest; the first of its kind for allegations of breach of conditions for a mischief charge. I was taken into custody, flown back to Ottawa in leg shackles by two Ottawa Police Service homicide detectives, denied bail by a justice of the peace, and held in remand for 30 days. As a result, I lost a job I loved and was good at, lost precious time with my family and grandchildren, and potentially facing over a year in pretrial custody if the Crown had had its way. Finally, a Superior Court judge released me after finding errors in the Justice’s ruling, himself delivering a scathing decision noting the Justice’s and prosecutors’ behaviour and famously ordered the bailiff to “TAKE THOSE SHACKLES OFF” of me.

This lawsuit has my name on it, but it’s about so much more than me. It’s about ensuring the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms is upheld for all Canadians. It’s about ensuring proper due diligence and due process are followed in the future so no one else has to go through what I went through. The rule of law must be applied to all equally and not doled out, persecution-style, to citizens that the government doesn’t like. This is a daunting, but necessary task and that’s why I am launching this crowdfund, asking for those that want to help me see this through, to consider a contribution to the incredible legal fees that this case will require.  This is a civil matter, and I am seeking damages although it’s unlikely damages will be awarded should this lawsuit conclude successfully. These types of cases are typically difficult to win, but then nothing about our cases have been typical. Should it happen that an award is granted, I will take a small portion for remediation.The remaining funds will be split evenly and donated to The Democracy Fund and the Justice Center for Constitutional Freedoms. It’s difficult to know where many of us would be today if it hadn’t been for these two charitable organizations stepping up to fight for Canadians against injustice. It’s important, now more than ever, that they have our support.

After consultation with my lawyer, I understand that the litigation could cost upwards of $100,000.00 or more if it is vigorously defended and goes the whole way through trial. After an initial retainer deposit has been covered, the funds will be withdrawn only as needed. Should extra funds remain, they will be returned to the donors by Give Send Go. You will find the full statement of claim at www.officialtamaralich.com and I will provide regular updates as the case progresses.

WHY I CHOSE GIVESENDGO

From personal experience I know Jacob Wells to be a man of integrity and honour. He prioritizes respect and protection to campaign donors on the GSG platform above all else. In the winter of 2022, Mr. Wells took an impressive stand against the Ontario government after they threatened to seize Freedom Convoy donations crowdfunded on GiveSendGo. Except for donations already in the Stripe payment processing system at the time, he was able to refund the remaining millions before the lawyers could complete their paperwork. I will be forever grateful for this organization that has been able to help so many and to the hearts and minds behind it who embody faith, family and freedom.

Whether it’s prayers, a small donation, or a message of encouragement, your support means so much. Together we can continue to fight for accountability and justice against malicious prosecution and negligent investigation.

Much love & gratitude,

Tamara Lich

Updates

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Michichi Creek Alberta water sources

 

Michichi Creek boardwalk and creek

Michichi Creek is a significant prairie stream in central Alberta that drains into the Red Deer River near Drumheller, drawing its water almost entirely from the eastern Alberta prairie rather than any mountain source.

Basin Overview

Michichi Creek has the largest subwatershed of the four main Red Deer River tributaries near Drumheller, covering approximately 6,204 km² of gross drainage area, with an effective (contributing) drainage area of around 720 km². The creek flows through portions of Kneehill County, Starland County, Wheatland County, and Special Area No. 2 before joining the Red Deer River. The hydrometric gauge station (WSC 05CE020) is located at Drumheller, with a peak design discharge of 68.0 m³/s.^[1][2][3][4]

Primary Water Sources

1. Spring Snowmelt (dominant source)
Unlike the Red Deer River itself — which is fed by Rocky Mountain snowmelt and summer rainfall — Michichi Creek's watershed sits entirely within the eastern Alberta prairie. Flooding and peak flows along Michichi Creek typically occur between late March and early April as a direct result of spring snowmelt runoff over frozen soils. This is characteristic of Canadian Prairie streams, where runoff predominantly occurs during the spring melt freshet over frozen ground.^[5][4][6]

2. Summer Rainfall Runoff
Agricultural runoff from summer convective rainstorms contributes episodic flows. Land use in the Michichi watershed is predominantly agricultural, with crops and pastures covering approximately 64–77% of the total watershed area. This impervious-like character means intense summer rainfalls can generate rapid surface runoff with limited infiltration.^[3][7]

3. Agricultural Drainage
The watershed's heavy agricultural use means tile drainage, field ditches, and surface drains all contribute to the creek's streamflow, particularly during spring and after significant rain events. Minimal wetland cover (only 0.67–5.53% of the subwatershed) means there is little natural storage to buffer flows.^[3]

4. Michichi Reservoir / Michichi Dam
A reservoir on Michichi Creek is located approximately 25 km north of Drumheller, near the hamlet of Michichi. This dam regulates some flow in the lower reaches of the creek, and the reservoir has a surface area of about 15.6 hectares. A beaver dam further downstream in the Starland County area creates a year-round wetland, adding minor local water storage.^[8][9][10]

5. Groundwater / Baseflow
Given the semi-arid prairie setting and deep clay-rich soils, groundwater contributions to baseflow are limited. The region's soils are rarely saturated, and the effective drainage area (720 km²) is considerably smaller than the gross basin area (1,170 km²), indicating that large portions of the watershed contribute little or no runoff in most years.^[2][11][6]

Geology and Sediment

The lower reaches of Michichi Creek near Drumheller pass through the Alberta Badlands, where the bedrock transitions from Quaternary clay-rich alluvium upstream to outcropping Cretaceous shales, bentonites, ironstones, and coal bands. This geology is directly responsible for the notably high total mercury and suspended sediment concentrations documented in Michichi Creek — the highest of any of the four main Drumheller-area tributaries — as badlands erosion readily contributes fine, mercury-associated sediment particles to the stream.^[3][7]

Confluence and Downstream Hydrology

Michichi Creek joins the Red Deer River near Drumheller. Together with Kneehills Creek, Threehills Creek, and the Rosebud River, it drains the central region of the Red Deer River watershed. Its relatively short distance of approximately 5.3 km from the Starland County boundary to the Red Deer River confluence has been the focus of flood hazard modelling.^[3][12]

In summary, Michichi Creek is a prairie-sourced stream with water coming overwhelmingly from spring snowmelt, supplemented by summer agricultural runoff and minor groundwater baseflow, with the Michichi Dam providing some local regulation and storage.

⁂

• https://open.alberta.ca/publications/drumheller-red-deer-river-michichi-creek-and-rosebud-river-flood-hazard-study 
• https://www.r-arcticnet.sr.unh.edu/v4.0/ViewPoint.pl?View=STATS&Unit=ms&Point=403  
• https://poeschlab.ualberta.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/2020/08/2021_Donadt_etal_Mercury.pdf     
• http://rdrmug.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Drumheller-Red-Deer-River-Michichi-Creek-and-Rosebud-River-Flood-Hazard-Study.pdf  
• https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/c26e3421-3053-475d-9942-785f38e39140/resource/453a48bd-0d0d-4aa9-9fef-cc5ea441b35a/download/drumheller-red-deer.pdf 
• https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/5173/2024/hess-28-5173-2024.pdf  
• https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717308641  
• https://mywildalberta.ca/fishing/fish-stocking/stocking-maps.aspx?id=3524 
• https://traveldrumheller.com/places-to-stay/michichi-recreation-area/ 
• https://www.travelalberta.com/listings/michichi-creek-boardwalk-15052 
• https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/station_metadata/reference_index_e.html?stnNum=05CJ009 
• https://www.alberta.ca/system/files/ep-draft-drumheller-hydraulic-model-inundation-report-jun-2022.pdf 
• https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/station_metadata/reference_index_e.html?stnNum=05AH025 
• https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/data_availability_e.html?type=historical&station=05CE020&parameter_type=Flow+and+Level 
• https://www.alberta.ca/system/files/custom_downloaded_images/ep-michichi-creek-basin-memo.pdf 
• https://www.battleriverwatershed.ca/our-watersheds/ 
• https://open.alberta.ca/dataset?q="05C+-+Red+Deer"&tags=Michichi+Creek&dataset_type=publications 
• https://www66.statcan.gc.ca/eng/1952-53/195204590403_p. 403.pdf 
• https://mrwcc.ca/our-watershed/ 
• https://lswc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Lesser_Slave_River_RiparianAssessment_FINAL.pdf 
• https://static.ags.aer.ca/files/document/REP/REP_13.pdf 
• https://starlandcounty.com/michichi-creek-boardwalk 
• https://open.alberta.ca/opendata?tags=ALBERTA&tags=WATERSHED&tags=LITTLE-RED-DEER 
• https://search.open.canada.ca/opendata/similar/3ec43e9e-9813-4da4-b168-8f993efa38ad?html 
• https://starlandcounty.com/visiting-starland-county 
• https://fishbrain.com/fishing-waters/SOHFFdU6/michichi-creek 
• https://www.alberta.ca/drought-water-allocation-and-apportionment 
• https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/station_metadata/reference_index_e.html?stnNum=07DA008 
• https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance-reports/industry-performance/water-use-performance/water-availability-and-allocation 
• https://ags.aer.ca/document/OFR/OFR_1959_04.pdf 
• https://www.aeso.ca/assets/Uploads/Appendix-F-LIA-final-July30.pdf 
• https://alms.ca/lake-watershed-maps/ 
• https://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/FILE/ssrb_main_report.pdf 
• https://www.battleriverwatershed.ca/resources/watershed-data/ 
• https://mywildalberta.ca/fishing/fish-stocking/stocking-maps.aspx/stocking-maps.aspx?id=3524 
• https://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/FILE/watershed.pdf 
• https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2024/eccc/en38/En38-25-1995-eng.pdf 
• https://mightypeacewatershedalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/MPWA-SoW_Full.pdf 
• https://naturealberta.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Irrigation-Expansion-Report-15-June-2025.pdf 
• https://repository.lib.ncsu.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/ae0800cc-bc2c-4049-8434-21f66d01fb34/content 
• https://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/1023/report.pdf 
• https://www.countygp.ab.ca/news/posts/county-crews-addressing-pooling-water-from-spring-melt/ 
• https://npshistory.com/publications/geology/ofr/03-35.pdf 
• https://resilienceinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/TRI-Flood-Adaptation-Report.pdf 
• https://wpg.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/seminars/2008_Godfreyetal.pdf 
• https://www.skb.com/publication/2490990/TR-17-12.pdf 
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Badlands 
• https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/water-overview/quantity/floods/events-prairie-provinces.html 
• https://skb.com/publication/2492307/TR-18-13.pdf 
• https://www.drumhellermail.com/news/10872-town-hopeful-remediation-work-on-michichi-creek-imminent 
• https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/data_availability_e.html?type=sediment&station=05CE020&parameter_type=Concentration%2CInstantaneous 
• https://mspace.lib.umanitoba.ca/items/bde9672b-d4fa-4734-83e7-c0730b8a6eeb 
• https://mspace.lib.umanitoba.ca/server/api/core/bitstreams/3f546479-80ac-4c27-b76b-3520438c1da2/content 
• https://research-groups.usask.ca/hydrology/documents/reports/chrpt09_prairie-water-quality-study-final-report_jan11.pdf 
• https://search.open.canada.ca/opendata/similar/8f719ed5-6bb6-4354-b729-55b321dfabc7?html 
• https://ppwb.ca/sites/default/files/2024-03/ppwbre1-2_0.pdf 
• https://open.alberta.ca/opendata?tags=WATERSHED&tags=MICHICHI 
• https://rockies.ca/files/reports/Wheatland_County_Survey_Report_070315.pdf 
• https://www.awchome.ca/uploads/source/Publications/Project_Team_Reports/1163_AWC_Riparian_Lands_FINAL-compressed.pdf 
• https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/044998b8-d9a0-4d5c-af97-a2629dbd32d1/resource/7600a142-b142-43fc-a15a-cef7db24c20c/download/7965.pdf 
• https://www.egbc.ca/getmedia/d2019fb5-eb9b-48fd-8f5e-c5cdaede57af/APEGBC-CAB-ABCFP-Guidelines-for-Legislated-Riparian-Area-Assessments.pdf.aspx 
• https://www.calgary.ca/content/dam/www/uep/water/documents/water-documents/design-guidelines-for-streambank-stability-and-riparian-restoration.pdf 
• https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2025/eccc/en36/En36-523-180-eng.pdf