Alberta West News: Wind vs. Solar in Alberta: Annual Output and Efficiency

Main takeaway: In Alberta today, wind generates several times more electricity per year than solar, both because there is more installed wind capacity and because wind’s capacity factor is roughly 1.5× that of solar. Solar output is growing very quickly from a small base, but on an annual energy basis Alberta’s grid is still much more “wind‑heavy” than “solar‑heavy.”

1. How annual solar generation compares to wind (recent years)

2022 (AESO Annual Market Statistics)

For assets ≥5 MW connected to the Alberta grid:

Wind
- Supplied about 12.2% of Alberta’s net‑to‑grid generation in 2022.aeso
- Served about 8% of Alberta Internal Load (AIL).aeso
- Total wind generation was on the order of 7.3 TWh.aeso
Solar
- Supplied about 1.9% of AIL and about 1.4% of total generation in 2022.aeso
- Utility‑scale solar was still relatively small but ramping up quickly.

So in 2022, wind delivered roughly 6–8 times as much energy as solar on an annual basis.aeso

2023 (AUC generation by resource)

Alberta Utilities Commission data for 2023 grid‑connected generation (≥0.5 MW):auc

Total generation: 87,274 GWh.
Wind: 9,718 GWh → ≈11% of total generation.auc
Solar: 222 GWh → ≈0.25% of total generation.auc

Despite rapid construction of solar in 2021–2023, most of that new plant was only starting to contribute for full years by 2024. In 2023, wind generated ~44× more electricity than solar on the bulk system.auc

2024 (AESO Annual Market Statistics)

By 2024, Alberta had a much bigger renewables fleet:aeso

Installed capacity at year‑end:
- Wind: 5,688 MW (up 26.9% from 4,481 MW in 2023).aeso
- Solar: 1,812 MW (up 9.8% from 1,650 MW in 2023).aeso
Renewables (wind + solar + hydro) supplied about 19% of Alberta’s total generation, up from 17% in 2023.aeso

From the 2024 AESO statistics (and derived summaries):

Wind
- Total wind generation ≈ 12.8 TWh in 2024.
- Wind provided about 14% of Alberta’s electricity relative to AIL.aeso
Solar
- Total solar generation ≈ 2.9 TWh in 2024.
- Solar provided about 3% of Alberta’s electricity relative to AIL.aeso

On an annual basis in 2024, wind still produced around 4–5× the energy of solar, but solar’s share jumped markedly compared with 2022–23.auc+2

High‑level trend (2018–2024)

Wind: Has been the dominant non‑hydro renewable in Alberta for a decade; its share of net‑to‑grid generation rose from about 6–7% in 2018 to ~12% in 2022 and ~14% by 2024.policyschool+2
Solar: Essentially negligible pre‑2018, but now:
- ~1–2% of generation by 2022,
- still only ~0.25% in 2023 on a full‑year basis,auc
- up to ~3% by 2024.aeso+1

So on an annual energy basis, wind currently carries most of the renewable load, with solar now starting to become material but still clearly secondary.

2. Efficiency: capacity factors and “potential vs actual”

To compare efficiency between wind and solar, capacity factor is the key metric:

\text{Capacity factor} = \frac{\text{Actual annual energy output}}{\text{Installed capacity} \times 8760\ \text{h/yr}}

It’s effectively the ratio of actual to theoretical maximum output over time.

Typical Alberta capacity factors

Multiple Alberta‑specific sources converge on the following ranges:

Solar PV
- Policy analysis work using AESO data puts Alberta solar’s annual capacity factor at roughly 15%, with monthly peaks up to ~26% in summer.policyschool
- Business Renewables Centre (BRC‑Canada) notes about 20% for recent Alberta solar projects (likely due to single‑axis tracking, bifacial modules and optimized siting).businessrenewables
- Canada‑wide assessments find most Canadian fixed‑tilt solar ≤18%, with Alberta at the upper end due to high insolation and cold temperatures improving panel efficiency.rec-cer+1
Wind
- Alberta‑focused modelling and AESO data indicate wind annual capacity factors ~30–35% on average for the current fleet.policyschool
- The same work suggests 30–45% is realistic depending on site and turbine technology (taller towers and longer blades push toward the upper end).policyschool
- BRC‑Canada cites ~45% for recent Alberta wind projects, i.e., top‑tier modern wind farms on good sites.businessrenewables

So, in practical terms:

A typical new wind project in Alberta produces about 1.5–2× as many MWh per MW per year as a typical new solar project on the grid.businessrenewables+1
Legacy or sub‑optimal sites have lower factors, but the ratio (wind > solar) is robust across sources.

Recent fleet‑wide capacity factors (AESO)

The AESO’s capacity factor figure for 2020–2024 shows:aeso

Wind:
- Fleet‑wide annual capacity factor in the low‑30% range in recent years, with some year‑to‑year variation tied to weather and new projects commissioning.policyschool+1
Solar:
- Fleet‑wide capacity factor around 15–20%, rising slightly as more large, well‑sited utility‑scale projects with tracking technology have come online.businessrenewables+2

The 2024 AESO statistics indicate approximately:

Wind ~30% average capacity factor, consistent with a 5,688 MW fleet generating on the order of 12–13 TWh.aeso
Solar ~20% average capacity factor, consistent with an 1,812 MW fleet generating on the order of 2.9 TWh.aeso

Those are fleet averages; the best individual assets can exceed those numbers.

3. Potential vs actual output over time

Technical resource potential

Alberta has excellent wind and solar resource quality by Canadian standards:
- The Canadian Energy Regulator and federal clean‑electricity snapshots note that Alberta’s wind capacity reached 3,618 MW by 2023, about 22% of total provincial generation capacity, reflecting strong wind potential in southern and eastern Alberta.cer-rec
- Alberta is also highlighted as having some of the highest solar production potential in North America, with utility‑scale projects like Travers (465 MW) and multiple Indigenous‑led solar farms demonstrating that potential.canada
Independent analyses put Alberta’s wind technical potential at around 150 GW, orders of magnitude above current installations, and note that Alberta has the second‑highest solar potential in Canada per kW installed.energyrates

So from a resource standpoint, both wind and solar could provide far more energy than they currently do. The limiting factors are build‑out pace, economics, siting, transmission, and grid integration, not the raw wind/solar resource.alberta+3

How much of that potential is actually used (capacity factor + curtailment)

Capacity factor itself is already “actual vs theoretical.”
- A 30–35% wind capacity factor means Alberta’s wind fleet is using roughly one‑third of its nameplate capability over a year—the other two‑thirds are periods when the wind is insufficient (or turbines are down for maintenance).policyschool
- A 15–20% solar capacity factor means panels are producing at full‑equivalent output for about 1,300–1,750 hours per year, versus 8,760 theoretical.businessrenewables+2
Curtailment and transmission constraints are increasingly important, especially for solar.
- Alberta’s Market Surveillance Administrator reports that wind and solar “constrained‑down” volumes (i.e., curtailed due to transmission limits or supply surplus) jumped from 53 GWh in 2022 to 286 GWh in 2023, and to 508 GWh in 2024.albertamsa
- In 2024, at least 1 MWh of wind/solar was constrained down in 45% of hours, and in some quarters >50% of hours saw some curtailment.albertamsa
- Supply surplus hours (prices at or near 0 $/MWh) also spiked to 289 hours in 2024, driven in part by strong daytime solar and high wind coinciding with low load, which forces the system to back down renewables or other generation.albertamsa+1
This means that even when resource conditions are good, not all potential generation is accepted by the grid; some of the gap between “resource potential” and “actual generation” is now an integration problem rather than a purely meteorological one.
Temporal profile and complementarity.
- AESO data and modelling show that in Alberta, solar output peaks around midday and is strongest in late spring and summer, while wind tends to be stronger at night and in winter shoulder seasons.albertamsa+2
- On average, that makes wind and solar partial complements: solar helps cut daytime net load, and wind helps in evening and overnight as solar drops off.albertamsa+1
However, peak system risk in Alberta often occurs on cold, still winter evenings when:
- Load is very high,
- Solar is at zero,
- Wind output can be low for extended periods.pipelineonline+2
From a reliability standpoint, this is why the AESO emphasizes the need for firm capacity (gas, storage, imports, demand response) alongside wind and solar.aeso+2

Trends in efficiency over time

Wind efficiency (capacity factor) has:
- Improved with new turbine technology (taller towers, larger rotors) and better siting, pushing new builds towards 40–45% CF,cleanenergycanada+2
- But the fleet‑average CF hovers around low‑30%, because:
  - Alberta has a mix of older and newer projects,
  - Commissioning periods and maintenance lower annual averages,
  - Curtailment is rising in some congested areas.albertamsa+2
Solar efficiency (capacity factor) has:
- Improved as the fleet shifts from small fixed‑tilt or rooftop systems toward large utility‑scale plants with tracking and bifacial modules—hence the move from ~15% historical averages toward ~20% for newer projects,natural-resources.canada+2
- But is still fundamentally limited by the shorter winter day length and high solar zenith angles at Alberta’s latitude, so it will not approach good wind CFs in annual percentage terms.rec-cer+1

Overall, both wind and solar are using a consistent fraction of their theoretical potential, but:

Wind delivers more energy per MW and has somewhat higher integration challenges at night and during high‑wind, low‑load periods.
Solar delivers less energy per MW but historically hit higher‑value hours, although in 2024 AESO notes that “crowding” in daytime solar hours has started to push solar’s achieved price below the pool average as many solar plants generate simultaneously.solaralberta+2

4. Summary in practical terms

Putting this together for Alberta:

Annual generation
- Wind currently supplies about four to six times as much annual energy as solar, depending on the year considered (larger capacity and higher capacity factor).aeso+2
- In 2024, wind was roughly 14% of provincial generation, solar around 3%, and all renewables (wind + solar + hydro) about 19%.aeso
Efficiency (capacity factor)
- Typical Alberta capacity factors:
  - Wind: ~30–35% fleet‑average, up to ~45% for the best new projects.businessrenewables+1
  - Solar: ~15–20% fleet‑average for today’s mix of projects.policyschool+2
- That means 1 MW of good wind capacity will produce roughly 1.5–2× the annual MWh of 1 MW of good solar capacity.
Potential vs actual
- Both wind and solar have far more technical potential than Alberta has currently built out.canada+2
- The main constraints now are:
  - Build‑out pace and investment,
  - Transmission and congestion (especially in high‑resource regions),
  - Managing net demand variability and curtailment as intermittent shares rise.aeso+2

For planning or policy analysis in Alberta, this usually leads to strategies that:

Lean on wind for bulk energy (high CF, large potential),
Use solar to reduce daytime net load and diversify resource timing,
Invest in transmission, storage, demand response and flexible gas to bridge the gap between theoretical renewable potential and usable, dependable electricity on the grid.alberta+5

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Saturday, November 29, 2025

Wind vs. Solar in Alberta: Annual Output and Efficiency