Trump has clearly moved into an overt military coercion phase against Venezuela, but credible reporting still points to strikes and covert action rather than a large‑scale ground invasion as the most likely “next step.”reuters+2
What is happening now
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The U.S. has deployed a major naval and air presence in the Caribbean, including the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group and thousands of troops, and has already carried out multiple lethal strikes on vessels near Venezuela’s coast under a counter‑narcotics justification.news.yahoo+2
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Trump has declared Venezuelan airspace “closed” and the FAA has warned airlines of a hazardous situation, with some carriers rerouting or canceling flights.aljazeera+3
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Officials say a “new phase” of operations is imminent, with CIA covert action already authorized inside Venezuela and “very soon” land operations against alleged drug traffickers being publicly floated.reuters+4
How likely is an invasion?
Most analysts and even some U.S. officials still see a full‑scale invasion (Panama‑style regime‑change operation) as unlikely, even as options for limited strikes or raids are actively prepared. Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out ground action, and Pentagon planning has included war‑gaming scenarios for ousting Maduro, but commentary from regional experts stresses that Washington’s preferred path remains maximal pressure (sanctions, covert ops, targeted strikes) rather than a large occupation force, which would trigger severe regional and legal backlash.wikipedia+5
Key signals to watch
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Escalation from offshore and air/naval actions to confirmed ground raids on Venezuelan territory.
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Moves to significantly increase U.S. troop levels beyond current deployments or to pre‑position large amphibious/army units, which would be a clearer invasion indicator.wunc+2
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Diplomatic signals: breakdown of remaining back‑channel contacts with Maduro, hardening rhetoric from regional governments, or emergency OAS / UN meetings warning against intervention.nytimes+2
At this point, the trajectory is toward higher‑risk military confrontation and possible limited ground actions, but not yet the kind of declared, large‑scale invasion that would resemble Iraq 2003 or Panama 1989.aljazeera+3
- https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-launch-new-phase-venezuela-operations-sources-say-2025-11-22/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/14/is-venezuela-prepared-for-a-us-attack-as-washington-ramps-up-forces
- https://ca.news.yahoo.com/know-us-inches-closer-direct-233100097.html
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/us/politics/venezuela-maduro-fallout-trump.html
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/30/is-us-president-donald-trump-preparing-to-strike-venezuela
- https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-venezuela-be-closed-its-entirety-2025-11-29/
- https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-us-will-very-soon-begin-stopping-suspected-venezuelan-drug-2025-11-27/
- https://www.newsweek.com/flight-tracker-venezuela-airspace-trump-closure-11130967
- https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/trump-says-us-will-soon-take-action-against-venezuelan-drug-traffickers-on-land/
- https://www.justsecurity.org/125552/trump-maduro-venezuela-warnings-aftermath/
- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-28/us-venezuela-tension-flashpoints-and-history-explained/106037756
- https://www.wunc.org/2025-11-27/a-giant-game-of-chicken-trumps-venezuela-standoff-edges-toward-conflict
- https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW420522112025RP1/
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/11/29/live-donald-trump-says-venezuela-airspace-now-closed-as-tensions-surge
- https://fortune.com/2025/11/30/trump-venezuelan-airspace-closed-largest-buildup-us-firepower-caribbean/
- https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-venezuela-immigration-ukraine-news-11-30-25
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/29/us/politics/trump-venezuela-maduro-airspace.html
- https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/30/politics/video/markwayne-mullin-oklahoma-drug-operations-venezuela-trump
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/24/us-adds-venezuelan-cartel-to-terror-list-as-military-threat-rises
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