What has Putin got on Trump?

 

There is no publicly verified evidence that Vladimir Putin personally “has” blackmail material on Donald Trump, and major investigations have not proven that Russia is controlling him through kompromat. What exists is a mix of unproven allegations, circumstantial leverage (knowledge of contacts, lies, and business interests), and Trump’s own pattern of deference to Putin that fuels suspicion.cnn+4​

Alleged kompromat

• The Steele dossier and related reporting claimed Russian services obtained sexually compromising material on Trump in Moscow and held financial and political intelligence that could be used against him, but these claims remain unverified and parts of the dossier have been discredited.bbc+2​

• Media reports on purported leaked Kremlin documents have suggested the Kremlin believed it had unspecified “kompromat” on Trump while deciding to support his 2016 run, but the authenticity of those documents is disputed and officially denied by Moscow.forbes+1​

What is actually documented

• U.S. intelligence and the bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee concluded that Putin ordered an operation to interfere in the 2016 election in ways that helped Trump, including hacking and information operations.britannica+1​

• Numerous contacts between Trump associates and Russian officials or intermediaries were documented, and several figures (e.g., Michael Flynn) lied about those contacts, creating potential blackmail risk because Russian officials knew the truth when U.S. authorities did not.vox+2​

Why people think Putin has leverage

• Trump has repeatedly downplayed or rejected U.S. intelligence assessments on Russian interference and often avoided criticizing Putin, including on issues like election meddling and Ukraine, which many analysts see as politically inexplicable without some form of pressure or deep alignment of interests.newyorker+2​

• Analysts and former officials often frame the situation less as proven “blackmail tape” and more as a combination of:

  • Russia’s intimate knowledge of Trump-world’s undisclosed contacts and misstatements.vox​

  • Long-standing financial interests and openness to Russian-linked capital in his business history.nytimes+1​

  • A personality dynamic in which Trump admires and tries to maintain favor with strongman leaders like Putin, which can itself function as leverage.geopoliticalfutures+1​

Bottom line

• No investigation has produced conclusive public proof that Putin is actively blackmailing Trump with specific kompromat, and both Trump and the Kremlin deny it.time+2​

• However, Russia’s knowledge of hidden contacts, lies, and political vulnerabilities around Trump, combined with his consistent political deference to Putin, means many experts judge that the Kremlin at least has potential leverage over him, whether or not a classic blackmail file exists.aber+2​

1. https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/16/politics/kompromat-russia-trump
2. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38589427
3. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Donald-Trump/Russia-investigation
4. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/us/trump-russia-investigation-dossier.html
5. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/12/15955314/trump-russia-blackmail
6. https://www.businessinsider.com/timeline-russia-trump-sex-blackmail-golden-shower-dossier-2017-1
7. https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2021/07/15/trump-kompromat-claimed-report-says-kremlin-documents-show-putin-conspiring-for-billionaire/
8. https://time.com/4632111/kompromat-history-donald-trump/
9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Links_between_Trump_associates_and_Russian_officials
10. https://www.newyorker.com/news/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat
11. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025/06/25/the-idea-that-the-kremlin-has-kompromat-on-trump-seems-increasingly-plausible/
12. https://www.aber.ac.uk/en/news/archive/2021/02/title-240459-en.html
13. https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russian-blackmail-and-donald-trump/
14. https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/trump-paints-zelenskyy-corner-new-plan-end-russias-127777022
15. https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1p23dn3/how_putin_will_exploit_trumps_moment_of_weakness/
16. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-putin-ukraine-talks/
17. https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/video-commentary/russian-intelligence-and-kompromat-allegations
18. https://www.cato.org/commentary/no-russiagate-wasnt-hoax-team-trump-claims-it-was
19. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react/trump-and-putin-just-left-alaska-without-a-deal-russias-war-on-ukraine/
20. https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/what-leverage-does-trump-have-over-putin-in-peace-negotiations-quite-a-lot-experts-say/