UAE picks up the slack when China slams bans on Alberta exports

China’s new tariffs and restrictions on Canadian canola are sharply reducing direct Alberta exports to that market, and the UAE is again emerging as a key intermediary buyer and re‑export hub, rather than a pure replacement end‑market.globalnews+3​

What China did to Alberta exports

China has imposed a provisional tariff of about 75.8% on additional Canadian canola seed products, on top of existing 100% tariffs on some canola oil, canola cake and peas. Alberta produces roughly one‑third of Canada’s canola and China has been Alberta’s second‑largest agricultural export market, with canola, peas and pork representing the bulk of that trade. The new tariffs make most direct seed exports to China uneconomic and create a large hole in Alberta’s traditional canola export flow.youtube​ctvnews+3​

How the UAE “picks up the slack”

The UAE is a major logistics and re‑export hub where more than 40% of imported goods are shipped onward to other markets, particularly across Asia, including China. During earlier periods of Chinese restrictions on Canadian canola, analysts documented a rise in Canadian canola seed shipped to the UAE, crushed there, with the resulting oil and meal then sold on to China, effectively routing around direct restrictions. Recent commentary notes that UAE canola imports have tended to jump around times of Chinese disruptions, suggesting the same arbitrage pattern is likely to re‑emerge under the new tariff regime.ualberta+2​

Scale of Canada–UAE trade

Canada’s merchandise exports to the UAE were about $2.6–2.7 billion in 2024, making the UAE Canada’s top export destination in the Middle East and a top‑20 partner globally. Canadian and Alberta sources highlight that a significant share of exports to the UAE are energy, aerospace and agri‑food products, with the agri‑food slice well‑positioned to expand given the UAE’s role in regional food security and re‑export.export.alberta+2​

Political and policy overlay

Ottawa and Abu Dhabi have been deepening ties: there is an active foreign investment protection agreement process, negotiations toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, and new initiatives like “Investopia Global–Alberta” aimed at aviation, food security and clean energy. Alberta has also pursued its own trade outreach to the UAE, seeking alternative outlets and investment at the same time as it lobbies Ottawa to resolve the tariff dispute with China.ctvnews+5​

What this means for Alberta producers

In the short term, UAE‑mediated flows may support demand and pricing for Alberta canola seed and processed products, but they rarely replace the full volume and margin of a direct Chinese market. Over the medium term, Alberta’s exposure to geopolitical trade disputes remains high, so diversification toward multiple Asian, Middle Eastern and North American buyers—using hubs like the UAE but not relying on any single corridor—will be critical to stabilizing farm income.dtnpf+5​

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