Tehran may face mandatory evacuations as soon as within the next month or two if there is no significant rainfall to replenish its depleted reservoirs. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior officials have warned that without rain by late November or December, strict water rationing will be imposed, and if conditions deteriorate further, forced relocation or evacuation of the city could become unavoidable.i24news+3
Timelines and Government Statements
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President Pezeshkian stated that if no rain arrives in the next several weeks, water supplies may run out, leading to the necessity of evacuating Tehran.trtworld+2
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Tehran's water authority believes that, under current conditions, supplies can only last a few more weeks unless consumption is drastically cut or weather conditions change.iranintl+1
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Recent reports indicate government officials are preparing for emergency scenarios, including targeted relocation from the most severely affected neighborhoods and even discussing a non-working week to reduce pressure on the city’s water resources.caspianpost+1
Risk Escalation Steps
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Nightly water cuts and pressure reductions have already been implemented.
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The next measures, if the situation persists, involve further rationing, partial business or city closures, and, as a last resort, mass relocation of city residents.biz.chosun+1
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The threat of evacuation would likely become reality within one to two months if the drought continues and water levels drop further.alhurra+2
In summary, unless major rainfall occurs within the coming weeks, Tehran could see partial or full evacuations begin before the end of 2025.i24news+3
- https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/artc-iran-s-severe-water-crisis-prompts-pezeshkian-to-raise-possibility-of-evacuating-tehran
- https://caspianpost.com/analytics/iran-considers-evacuation-as-water-reserves-collapse
- https://www.trtworld.com/article/d1ca0b14ac0d
- https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-international/2025/11/11/FNMN74R5MJAV7I36LNTFIH4Y7Y/
- https://alhurra.com/en/6930
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- https://peterfrankopan.substack.com/p/evacuating-the-capital-inside-irans
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- https://www.news18.com/explainers/tehran-may-be-evacuated-inside-irans-alarming-water-crisis-and-whats-fuelling-it-ws-l-9701838.html
- https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/tehrans-water-crisis-city-may-130951024.html
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZybiH8wcdHU
- https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/why-iran-s-water-crisis-has-brought-its-major-cities-to-the-brink-of-evacuation-article-13671692.html
- https://www.newsweek.com/evacuation-warning-tehran-water-shortage-11008088
- https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-873638
- https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/may-evacuate-tehran-catastrophe-threatening-172234178.html

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