Alberta West News: Australia's Drought Situation

Australia is experiencing a highly variable drought landscape as of November 2025, with severe drought conditions concentrated in southern regions—particularly South Australia, Victoria, and western areas—while northern Australia continues to experience above-average rainfall. The situation is markedly different between regions, requiring careful regional analysis.bom

Southern Australia: Severe Drought Crisis

South Australia remains in one of the most severe drought situations, experiencing some of the lowest rainfall totals on record since February 2024. Significant areas of the state's agricultural regions—extending from the eastern Eyre Peninsula to the eastern state border—have recorded rainfall deficiencies in the lowest 5% of historical records since 1900, a classification indicating "severe" drought status. Parts of South Australia received less than 10 mm of rain in September 2025, just half the long-term average.ukragroconsult+2

The South Australian government has committed $73.4 million in drought assistance, including $55.4 million over five years, supporting farmers through infrastructure programs and mental health services. In Adelaide, the desalination plant has ramped up operations to maintain urban water supply. The state has also delayed the Northern Water project, with completion now forecast for 2032 rather than earlier timelines.phys+2

Victoria

Victoria is experiencing widespread drought with complex regional variation. Major water storage levels have declined significantly:

Melbourne storages: 74% full as of mid-November 2025, 15% lower than the same time last yearwater
Regional storages: 59% full, 18% lower than the previous yearwater
Statewide storages: 61% full overall, 18% lower than the same time last yearwater

Several regional storage systems face critical shortages. The Wimmera-Mallee Pipeline Project is at only 19% seasonal determination as of November 7, 2025. The Grampians storages were at just 45% capacity.water

Persistent rainfall deficiencies have affected large areas of Victoria, particularly western areas and south-west Gippsland, which have experienced some of Australia's lowest rainfall on record since February 2024. In response, Victoria's desalination plant has operated for the first time since 2022 to support Melbourne and Geelong water supplies. Some farmers report they will need months or even years to recover from the drought.abc+2

New South Wales

New South Wales faces mixed conditions. As of October 31, 2025, 33% of NSW is in one of the drought indicator categories, up from 26% at the end of September. Drought conditions persist in southern, western, and central regions. However, the northern inland areas maintain a positive production outlook.dpi.nsw

The NSW Murray Regulated Rivers face minimal inflows, with October inflows corresponding to a 92% exceedance probability (meaning they were among the lowest 8% of years on record). General security water holders currently hold an average of 51% of their entitlement.water.dcceew.nsw

Tasmania

Tasmania has experienced mixed conditions, with some coastal areas and the interior recording significant rainfall deficiencies. However, the situation has improved slightly since earlier in the year. Northern and central areas of Tasmania have largely cleared their rainfall deficiency classifications. The state is implementing the Rural Water Use Strategy, investing over $60 million since 2021 in water infrastructure and monitoring.premier+2

The Murray-Darling Basin: Critical Water Shortages

The Murray-Darling Basin—which supplies around 40% of Australia's agricultural produce—is experiencing critical water stress. As of November 19, 2025, water storage levels stood at just 65% of total capacity (14,567 gigalitres), which is 11 percentage points or 1,754 GL below the same time last year.agriculture+1

Several major storages are operating at severely reduced levels:

Fairbairn (Queensland's second-largest storage): 17.2% fullbom
Lake Awoonga (Queensland's fourth-largest storage): 30.3% fullbom
The Nogoa-Mackenzie system (which supplies rural communities): 17.2% fullbom

Streamflow across the Basin remains problematic. In October 2025, very much below-average streamflow (lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded at 4% of sites, with concentrations in Victoria, southern areas of the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia, and Queensland.bom

Water allocation prices have escalated, reflecting scarcity. Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased to $304/ML as of November 20, 2025. Trade restrictions remain in place across multiple inter-basin transfer routes.agriculture

Western Australia: Variable Conditions

Western Australia presents a mixed picture. Large areas, including the south-west, continue to experience below-average rainfall with some agricultural regions facing serious deficiencies. However, some areas in the north and west of Western Australia recorded above-average October rainfall. The seasonal outlook for November 2025 to January 2026 indicates near-normal rainfall is likely for the agricultural region.dpird+1

Northern Australia: Above-Average Conditions

In stark contrast to southern Australia, northern Australia is not drought-affected. Parts of northern Queensland, particularly areas like the Herbert River region, are experiencing above-average rainfall. The long-range forecast for December to February 2025 indicates rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the east, particularly affecting tropical regions.bom

Rainfall and Temperature Outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology's long-range forecast for December 2025 to February 2026 predicts:

Rainfall: Below average across large parts of the north and west; above average for parts of the eastbom
Temperatures: Daytime temperatures likely above average for most of Australia except eastern New South Wales; overnight temperatures very likely above average across most of Australiabom

Impact on Agricultural Production

The drought has directly impacted agricultural output. Australia's wheat harvest is expected to be the third-largest on record this year, but this represents a reduction from potential due to drought conditions in key growing regions. Persistent dry conditions in southern Australia continue to present increased downside risks for pastures and winter crops, particularly in their final yield-determining growth stages.agriculture+1

Key Water Quality Concerns

Beyond quantity, water quality is degrading. Blue-green algae levels are currently elevated across much of the Murray-Darling Basin's rivers and storages, posing risks to human health, animals, and the environment.miragenews

Long-Term Climate Projections

Research suggests southern Australia may experience longer and more frequent droughts in the future as climate patterns shift. Some analysts predict a potential severe drought period from 2028 to 2030 based on solar cycle modeling, though such predictions remain speculative.arr+1

Drought Declaration Policy Change

It is important to note that Australian governments no longer officially declare droughts using the pre-2014 system. This policy change occurred over a decade ago, reflecting a shift to more nuanced regional drought management approaches. This has created confusion, as some communities experiencing severe water stress feel their circumstances are not adequately acknowledged despite experiencing record-low rainfall.blue-community

Summary

Australia's current drought situation as of November 2025 reflects extreme regional polarization. Southern agricultural regions face a genuine drought crisis with record-low rainfall, critically depleted water storages (particularly in the Murray-Darling Basin), and escalating water allocation costs. Meanwhile, northern Australia experiences favorable water conditions. This split represents a significant challenge to Australia's food security, given that the drought is concentrated precisely where most agricultural production occurs. Without significant rainfall relief in southern regions during the coming months, water stress is likely to intensify through the 2025-26 summer.

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Friday, November 21, 2025

Australia's Drought Situation — November 2025