Alberta West News: Current Drought Situation in the United States

The United States is experiencing widespread but highly variable drought conditions as of November 2025, with roughly 38.65% of the U.S. and Puerto Rico, and 46.12% of the lower 48 states in drought (D1-D4). The drought shows distinct regional patterns, with the most severe impacts in the West, Southwest, South, and parts of the Upper Midwest, while the Pacific Northwest has seen recent improvements and the Northeast shows mixed conditions.drought

National Overview

As of November 18, 2025, the drought landscape includes 69% of the U.S. experiencing either abnormal dryness or drought. The worst drought categories (Extreme and Exceptional: D3-D4) are concentrated in specific regions, particularly the Southwest and Lower Mississippi Valley. Agricultural impacts are substantial, with 32% of corn, 33% of soybean, and 41% of winter wheat acres in moderate or more intense drought (D1+).profarmer+1

The Western Drought Crisis

Colorado River System Collapse

The Colorado River basin is experiencing its most severe water crisis in modern times, driven by two decades of megadrought supercharged by climate change. The basin has experienced a 20% decline from 20th-century average flows.kunc

As of November 18, 2025, the system is dangerously depleted:

Lake Powell: 44% of typical storage at 6,723,000 acre-feet, the lowest observed level for this date in the last 30 years. The reservoir is projected to end 2025 at only 29% of capacity. If levels drop much further, the facility could lose hydroelectric generation capability as early as November 2026, jeopardizing electricity for 5 million people across seven states.drought+2
Lake Mead: 51.3% of average at 8,211,440 acre-feet, yet still down significantly year-over-year. The lake will operate in Tier 1 shortage condition in 2026, with Arizona and Nevada facing mandatory water cutbacks.usbr+2
Elephant Butte Reservoir (Rio Grande Basin): Only 11% of average, an exceptionally dire situation.drought
Colorado River Total System Contents: 37% of capacity (21,848 acre-feet), down from 42% the previous year.usbr

Water allocation prices have escalated dramatically, reflecting scarcity. Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke reached $304/ML as of November 20.agriculture

Regional Water Year 2025 Summary (October 1, 2024 – September 30, 2025)

The Intermountain West experienced highly variable conditions:

Utah, Arizona, and western Colorado/Wyoming/New Mexico: Drought intensified and spread, with portions reaching Exceptional Drought (D4) over the summer.drought
Eastern Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming: Received above-average precipitation (100-150%).drought
Snowpack Disaster: April 1, 2025 snow water equivalent was 81-96% of average for Upper Colorado headwaters, and only 56% of average for Rio Grande basin headwaters. Early snowmelt and below-average spring snowfall resulted in low runoff efficiency.drought

Large fires ravaged the region, including the 145,000+-acre Dragon Bravo Fire in Arizona and the 137,758-acre Lee Fire in Colorado (5th largest in state history). The Utah governor declared a drought emergency by April 2025.drought

Projected 2026 Water Year Forecast

The outlook for Water Year 2026 (which began October 1, 2025) is concerning:

Lake Powell inflow projection: 8,063 acre-feet (84% of normal)usbr
April-July 2026 forecast: 5,150 acre-feet (81% of normal)usbr

La Niña conditions are present and expected to persist through December to February, then transition to neutral conditions. La Niña typically brings warmer and drier winter conditions to the Southwestern U.S..drought

Colorado River Management Failure

In mid-November 2025, the seven states sharing the Colorado River failed to meet a Nov. 11 deadline to reach consensus on how to operate reservoirs and share the resource. This failure highlights intensifying conflict over water allocation amid the megadrought.kunc

The Southwest Drought: Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma

Texas and Oklahoma: Escalating Crisis

The Southern Great Plains are experiencing severe to exceptional drought with rapidly deteriorating conditions:droughtmonitor.unl+1

Oklahoma: Overall dryness covers 61% of the state (D0-D3). South of Oklahoma City, extreme drought (D3) developed where ponds dried up amid large short-term precipitation deficits and above-normal evaporative demand.oklahomafarmreport+1
Texas: Widespread degradations occurred across southern, central, and northern Texas, with short- and long-term precipitation deficits and warm temperatures driving severe conditions. The Texas Panhandle and southwest regions experienced temperatures at least 9 degrees above normal in recent weeks.coyotegulch+1
New Mexico: Multiple cities experience extreme drought, including Las Cruces, Los Alamos, Albuquerque, and Deming. Some areas are classified as Exceptional Drought (D4).plantmaps

The Southeast: Emerging Crisis

Florida, Georgia, and Alabama

The Southeast has experienced rapid drought expansion and intensification. Most critically, Exceptional Drought (D4) was introduced to the Florida/Georgia border for the first time in the current drought cycle. Severe drought persists across much of the region, particularly along U.S. Highway 84 from southwest Alabama through northern Florida.cpc.ncep.noaa+2

Short-term precipitation deficits, elevated evaporative demand, and low streamflow characterize current conditions.droughtmonitor.unl

The Northeast: Mixed Recovery with Persistent Impacts

Northern New England Drought Recovery

Recent precipitation has provided significant relief in parts of New England, particularly Vermont, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, with some areas receiving up to 200% of normal precipitation since October 1. However, drought persists in parts of Maine, New Hampshire, and central Massachusetts, where precipitation since October 1 was only 50-90% of normal.drought

Extreme Drought (D3) improvements occurred in northern New England, except for southern coastal Maine. The 28-day average runoff for New England rebounded almost to normal, and streamflows in Lake Champlain improved.drought

Persistent Hydrologic Deficits

Despite recent precipitation, critical problems remain:

Dry wells are an ongoing crisis in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, with well drillers in high demand. A primary concern is that some households in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont may lack water entering winter, with soils freezing soon.drought
Sub-soil moisture and groundwater deficits remain throughout many parts of the Northeast.drought
Several rivers in Maine hit record lows in October.drought

Agricultural and Recreational Impacts

Vermont requested a statewide secretarial disaster designation from the USDA. Preliminary agricultural losses include $13.5 million in Vermont, with Maine's blueberry and apple industries facing $30 million and $10 million losses, respectively. Long-term drought impacts to berries and orchard fruit may emerge during the next growing season.drought

Ski resorts expressed concern about having adequate water for snow generation this winter.drought

The Midwest: Developing Drought

Wisconsin and the Upper Great Lakes

Northeast Wisconsin is experiencing worsening drought conditions, with Severe Drought (D2) now reported from Rhinelander to Merrill east through Marinette and Oconto counties. Moderate Drought (D1) covers the remainder of the region. Four-week changes show drought worsening across much of the area due to sparse November precipitation.weather

The Pacific Northwest: Some Improvement Amid Long-Term Deficits

Recent Improvements

The Pacific Northwest has experienced the most improvement recently, particularly in Washington and California, where recent precipitation has "cut into or erased precipitation deficits and boosted soil moisture and streamflow".coyotegulch

Persistent Long-Term Challenges

However, the region's long-term drought situation remains severe. As of July 2025, the Pacific Northwest was experiencing significant precipitation deficits, with some areas recording their 5th-7th driest May-June on record. The region received its second lowest storage from six Bureau of Reclamation reservoirs in the period of record (1971-2025).drought

The Yakima Basin in Washington recorded less than 5% of normal precipitation over a 60-day period. Washington State issued a drought declaration for an unprecedented third consecutive year, and northern Idaho has experienced drought for nearly three years.drought

Climate Outlook

Long-Range Forecast (December 2025 – February 2026):

Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies: Drought improvement and removal likely, with above-normal precipitation during typically wet monthscpc.ncep.noaa
Northeast: Improvements expected, but large year-to-date deficits support broader persistencecpc.ncep.noaa
Southwest, Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast: Persistence expected, as November is typically a drier month in these regions; development possible for some areascpc.ncep.noaa
Texas Gulf Coast, Lower Rio Grande Valley, and Southern Great Plains: Development of new drought conditions possible due to below-normal precipitation forecasts and recent precipitation deficitscpc.ncep.noaa

Seasonal Assessment: Based on La Niña conditions expected through the northern hemisphere winter, the southwestern U.S. faces increased risk of warmer, drier conditions.drought

Regional Summary

Region	Conditions	Key Impacts
West/Colorado River Basin	Severe; 44% Lake Powell capacity, 51% Lake Mead; megadrought over 20+ years	Hydroelectric generation threatened; mandatory water cutbacks; agricultural failures
Southwest (TX, OK, NM)	Severe to Exceptional; Ponds drying; record warm temperatures	Crop stress; groundwater depletion; wildfire risk
Southeast (FL, GA, AL)	Emerging Exceptional Drought (D4) at FL/GA border; expanding conditions	Streamflow decline; soil moisture losses; agricultural stress
Northeast (New England)	Mixed; Recent precipitation relief but persistent groundwater deficits	Dry wells; groundwater shortfalls; agricultural losses in Vermont, Maine
Midwest (Upper Great Lakes)	Worsening; Severe drought spreading in Wisconsin	Soil moisture decline; vegetation stress
Pacific Northwest	Improving recently but long-term deficits; 3rd consecutive drought declaration in WA	Multi-year precipitation needed for recovery; hydroelectric impacts

Agricultural and Livestock Impacts

As of November 11, 2025, drought is affecting substantial portions of major U.S. crops:profarmer

Corn: 32% in D1-D4 drought (up 3% in one week)
Soybeans: 33% in D1-D4 drought (up 2%)
Winter Wheat: 41% in D1-D4 drought (up 2%)
Cattle: 33% in D1-D4 drought (up 5%)
Dairy Cattle: 39% in D1-D4 drought (up 3%)

The rapid escalation of livestock impacts reflects the expanding footprint of drought across ranching regions.

Critical Outlook

The U.S. faces a convergence of threats: the Colorado River system operating near catastrophic lows with a La Niña winter forecasted to bring drier conditions to the Southwest; southeastern expansion of exceptional drought; and persistent groundwater deficits in the Northeast requiring multiple years of above-normal precipitation for recovery. The 2026 water year forecast suggests insufficient water will likely sustain these crisis conditions through next year.

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Friday, November 21, 2025

Current Drought Situation in the United States — November 2025