Which regions are most vulnerable to longterm droughts?

Palliser Triangle identified as being unsuitable for agriculture due to aridity

The regions most vulnerable to long-term droughts are concentrated in already arid and semi-arid areas, as well as places where rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns driven by climate change are intensifying water scarcity.creaf+2​

Global Drought Vulnerability Hotspots

• Middle East and North Africa: Countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Lebanon, and Oman face extremely high water stress, with up to 83% of the population exposed to long-term drought risks due to naturally low water supply and high demand.unep-wcmc+1​

• Sub-Saharan and Horn of Africa: The Sahel, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Sudan are experiencing more frequent and severe droughts, leading to hunger, population displacement, and widespread water insecurity.wfpusa+2​

• Southern and Eastern Europe, Mediterranean Region: Parts of Spain, Italy, Greece, and Turkey repeatedly face prolonged droughts, with agriculture and ecosystems particularly impacted.oecd+2​

• Central and Southern Asia: Drought-prone regions include large areas of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Central Asia, where water management and growing populations put additional pressure on supplies.10insightsclimate+1​

• Western United States and Central America: The Southwest U.S.—including California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico—experiences “megadrought” conditions, while Central America faces compounding effects of drought and food insecurity.c2es+3​

• Australia: Southern and eastern Australia are highly vulnerable due to frequent drought cycles, water demand, and ecosystem fragility.creaf+1​

• South America: The Amazon Basin and northeastern Brazil increasingly experience record-low river levels, ecosystem collapse, and disruption to local communities.wmo+1​

• Russia and Central Eurasia: Areas in eastern Russia and the steppes of Central Asia are significant drought hotspots as soil drying intensifies.oecd+1​

Notable Drought Trends in Canada

In Canada, major long-term drought vulnerability exists in:

• The southern Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba)

• Interior British Columbia

• Portions of Ontario and southern Quebec

Decreasing snowpack and river flows, paired with warming and sporadic rainfall, are driving extended drought periods in these regions.agriculture.canada+2​

Drought vulnerability is most acute where persistent climatic dryness, high water use, and poor resource management intersect, often compounded by population growth, agricultural demands, and fragile infrastructure.preventionweb+2​

1. https://www.creaf.cat/en/articulos/suthern-europe-california-australia-vulnerable-regions-drought-wildfires
2. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/06/global-drought-outlook_28488e98/full-report/towards-a-drier-world_6f10e2e5.html
3. https://www.unep-wcmc.org/en/news/counting-the-costs-of-drought
4. https://www.wri.org/insights/highest-water-stressed-countries
5. https://wfpusa.org/news/countries-most-affected-by-climate-change/
6. https://www.rescue.org/article/what-drought-causes-impact-countries-most-affected
7. https://www.preventionweb.net/news/drought-what-you-need-know-about-growing-global-risk
8. https://10insightsclimate.science/year-2022/vulnerability-hotspots-cluster-in-regions-at-risk/
9. https://www.c2es.org/content/drought-and-climate-change/
10. https://wmo.int/media/news/global-drought-hotspots-report-highlights-human-and-economic-impacts
11. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor/current-drought-conditions
12. https://climateinstitute.ca/news/fact-sheet-climate-change-and-drought/
13. https://thepointer.com/article/2025-07-04/hiding-from-the-heat-half-of-canada-faces-drought-un-experts-warn-now-s-the-time-to-act-do-we-have-the-will
14. https://www.undrr.org/gar/gar2025/hazard-exploration/droughts
15. https://www.germanwatch.org/en/cri
16. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/drought-hotspots-around-world-2023-2025
17. https://www.drought.gov/international
18. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500768X
19. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1125786525001298
20. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216942401059X