Long-Term Prediction: Will There Be More War?

Expert and Strategic Forecasts

Recent expert surveys and strategic analyses indicate a marked increase in pessimism about global security over the next decade. According to a 2024 survey by the Atlantic Council, 40% of global strategists and foresight practitioners expect a world war by 2035, defined as a multifront conflict among great powers. Alarmingly, nearly half of those foresee the potential use of nuclear weapons, and 45% believe a direct military conflict between Russia and NATO is likely within the next ten years1.

Other key findings include:

• Nearly half of respondents expect the world to split into China-aligned and US-aligned blocs, with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea potentially forming a formal alliance1.

• A significant majority anticipate the world will be more multipolar, with weaker international institutions and less effective global governance16.

• The proliferation of nuclear weapons is expected to accelerate, with 84% of experts predicting at least one new nuclear state by 2034 and 20% foreseeing the use of nuclear weapons by a terrorist group6.

Geopolitical Flashpoints and Trends

Current events and historical patterns suggest that several regions are at heightened risk for conflict escalation:

• Eastern Europe: The ongoing war in Ukraine, rising tensions in the Baltic region, and persistent instability in the Balkans are seen as potential triggers for broader conflicts, especially involving NATO and Russia1410.

• Asia-Pacific: The rivalry between the US and China, particularly over Taiwan and the South China Sea, is widely regarded as a possible flashpoint for a major war involving advanced technologies and potentially space-based assets157.

• Middle East: The persistent instability in Yemen, Iran's regional ambitions, and the risk of nuclear proliferation add to the region's volatility36.

Underlying Drivers

Several structural factors are increasing the likelihood of more wars:

• Multipolarity: The rise of China and the relative decline of US unipolar dominance have created a more competitive and unstable international system156.

• Weakening Norms: The erosion of international norms and institutions makes diplomatic solutions harder to achieve, raising the risk that disputes will be settled by force5.

• Resource Competition: Competition for resources, including in new theaters like the Arctic, is intensifying, further increasing the risk of confrontation5.

• Technological Change: The spread of artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and advanced weaponry is changing the nature of warfare and may lower the threshold for conflict17.

Public and Psychic Predictions

While expert analysis is grounded in current trends and data, public anxiety is also fueled by high-profile psychic predictions and prophecies, such as those attributed to Baba Vanga, which foresee catastrophic wars and global crises in the near future24. These predictions, though not scientific, reflect and amplify widespread fears about the direction of world affairs.

Conclusion

The long-term outlook for global peace is increasingly bleak according to both expert forecasts and observable trends. The convergence of rising great-power competition, weakening international norms, technological disruption, and persistent regional conflicts all point toward a future with a higher risk of major wars—including, potentially, a world war involving nuclear weapons and new domains like space156. While not inevitable, the probability of more war in the coming decade is considered significant by a large segment of the international security community.

1. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2035/
2. https://economictimes.com/news/international/us/world-war-3-prediction-2025-are-we-heading-toward-disaster-as-baba-vanga-nostradamus-and-others-warn-of-ai-warfare-global-collapse-and-unstoppable-chaos-before-the-year-ends/articleshow/121495141.cms
3. https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/1jkqbmk/chances_of_america_going_to_war_within_the_next_5/
4. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/astrology/zodiacs-astrology/baba-vangas-2025-predictions-is-the-next-world-war-just-around-the-corner-heres-what-she-predicted-about-the-global-wars-and-other-crisis/articleshow/120787656.cms
5. https://www.mirasafety.com/blogs/news/will-there-be-a-world-war-3
6. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2034-what-the-world-could-look-like-in-ten-years-according-to-nearly-300-experts/
7. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/december/war-2026-phase-iii-scenario
8. https://geopoliticalfutures.com/2024-annual-forecast-america-and-war/
9. https://mwi.westpoint.edu/scanning-the-horizon-if-the-future-is-unknowable-why-bother-with-forecasting/
10. https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2025