Current Conditions
- The Missouri River Basin is experiencing extremely dry soil across most of its area, with many states reporting soil moisture below the 10th percentile[1].
- The Upper Mississippi River Basin and its tributaries also have below-normal soil moisture, particularly due to continued precipitation deficits since fall 2024[2][3].
- The most significant deficits are in Nebraska, South Dakota, and northern Kansas, where some areas have gone up to 240 days with below-normal precipitation[1].
- Recent analyses from the Climate Prediction Center show soil moisture ranking profiles around the 10–30% range east of the Mississippi River, with near-normal conditions closer to the Mississippi headwaters, but widespread abnormally dry to severe drought conditions through the Upper Mississippi River Valley[2][4].
- Streamflows on both the Missouri and Mississippi rivers are below normal, occasionally falling into the lowest 10th percentile for this time of year[5].
Drivers and Impacts
- Above-normal temperatures, high winds, and a lack of winter snowpack have increased evaporative demand, rapidly drying soils and exacerbating drought conditions[1][6].
- Poor soil moisture has led to difficulties with spring planting, delayed green-up, early irrigation, fallowing of fields, and poor range conditions, especially in the Missouri River Basin[1].
- April runoff in the Missouri Basin was just 48% of normal, and May runoff is forecast at 78% of normal, reflecting the impact of low subsoil moisture on river flows[1][7].
- The Mississippi River has experienced unusually below-normal flows during portions of the last three years, and the risk for abnormally low flow on the mainstem below Cairo, Illinois, remains present[4].
Regional Summary Table
Region | Soil Moisture Status (Spring 2025) | Notes |
Missouri River Basin | Below 10th percentile (extremely dry) | Drought persists, major deficits in NE, SD, KS[1][6] |
Upper Mississippi River Basin | Below normal, 10–30% ranking percentile | Drier than normal, especially east of river[2][4] |
Mississippi River Mainstem | Below normal, low streamflows | Low flows, reduced flood risk, drought persists[4][5] |
Outlook
- Seasonal forecasts for June–August 2025 predict continued below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures across the Missouri and Upper Mississippi River basins, suggesting that drought and subsoil moisture deficits are likely to persist or worsen[1][4].
- The entire states of North Dakota and Nebraska are expected to remain in drought conditions throughout the summer[1].
Key Takeaways
- Subsoil moisture levels in both the Missouri and Mississippi River basins are well below normal as of mid-2025, with the Missouri River Basin among the hardest hit.
- These deficits are driven by prolonged precipitation shortfalls, above-normal temperatures, and reduced snowpack, leading to agricultural impacts and low river flows[1][2][4].
- Without timely and substantial rainfall, the region faces ongoing drought stress and potential further reductions in water availability.
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- https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/drought-status-update-missouri-river-basin-2025-05-15
- https://www.weather.gov/dvn/2025_springfloodoutlook
- https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2eb7408d174c434d95315e01355311bf
- https://www.weather.gov/media/owp/nha/2025_National_Hydrologic_Assessment.pdf
- https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/9a94d87c03814a1eb063cff55ef56a48
- https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/drought-status-update-missouri-river-basin-2025-01-08
- https://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/pdfs/runoff_narrativeMay.pdf
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