Saturday, June 28, 2025

Adapting to a drier warming climate on the prairies of North America

Adapting to a drier, warming climate on the North American Prairies requires a multifaceted approach that addresses the challenges of reduced soil moisture, increased evaporation, and more frequent extreme weather events like droughts and floods. Drawing from recent research and practices in the Canadian Prairies, particularly Alberta, as well as broader regional insights, the following strategies and considerations can guide farmers, policymakers, and communities in building resilience.


Standing stubble protects soils during dry periods

Agricultural Adaptation Strategies

  • Soil Moisture Conservation: With warmer temperatures and increased evaporation expected to reduce soil moisture, conservation practices are critical. No-till or reduced tillage systems minimize soil disturbance, preserving moisture and organic matter while reducing evaporation 12. Maintaining crop residue on fields as a natural mulch layer further protects soil from drying out and enhances water infiltration 341.

  • Cover Cropping and Crop Rotation: Incorporating diverse cover crops such as clover, rye, and vetch improves soil structure, adds organic matter, and protects against erosion, all of which help retain moisture during dry periods 34. Rotating crops, including drought-tolerant varieties like spring wheat, barley, and peas, increases resilience by diversifying water needs and reducing risk during drier springs 1.

  • Precision Irrigation and Monitoring: Advanced soil moisture sensors and real-time monitoring tools are revolutionizing water management, particularly in Alberta. These technologies, such as Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) probes, allow farmers to optimize irrigation, reducing water usage by up to 30% while maintaining crop health 56. Combining sensor data with weather forecasts ensures precise water application, critical in a region with unpredictable rainfall and frequent droughts 56.

  • Adjusted Inputs and Planning: In drier conditions, farmers can reduce seeding rates and fertilizer inputs to match lower moisture availability, avoiding overinvestment in crops unlikely to thrive 1. Regular soil testing and monitoring of moisture levels down to 40 inches (100 cm) help inform these decisions, ensuring resources are allocated efficiently 16.

Water Management and Policy

  • Groundwater and Surface Water Strategies: As demand for irrigation rises with warmer summers, competition for water resources will intensify across agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors 78. Groundwater recharge, particularly through depression-focused processes in Alberta, is a key area of study, with models like the Versatile Soil Moisture Budget (VSMB) indicating that recharge may shift from spring to summer under future climate scenarios, though overall rates could remain stable or slightly decline 9. Policies must prioritize sustainable allocation and management, preparing for a future with potentially reduced streamflow from shrinking Rocky Mountain glaciers and lower summer baseflow 8.

  • Collaborative Frameworks: Effective adaptation requires collaboration among governments, watershed stewardship groups, and rural municipalities to manage water excesses and shortages. Regional land-use planning and emergency preparedness are essential to mitigate the impacts of floods and droughts, which are projected to become more severe and frequent 10.

Ecosystem and Community Resilience

  • Protecting Wetlands and Forests: Prairie wetlands, vital for waterfowl and biodiversity, are highly sensitive to climate variability, with increased evaporation potentially transforming semi-permanent wetlands into vegetated areas, impacting plant and animal communities 7. Similarly, the western Canadian boreal forest faces a net loss in area due to drier conditions, increased insect outbreaks, and wildfires 7. Conservation strategies, such as reducing anthropogenic stressors and minimizing barriers to species movement, are crucial for ecosystem adaptation 10.

  • Addressing Social Vulnerabilities: Climate change may exacerbate inequities, particularly for Indigenous peoples, women, and low-income groups in the Prairies. Adaptation planning must consider these unique vulnerabilities while leveraging community strengths to build resilience against climate hazards 10.

Opportunities Amid Challenges

  • Longer Growing Seasons: Warmer temperatures may extend the growing season, offering potential benefits for Prairie agriculture. However, realizing these gains depends on managing increased risks from pests, diseases, and water scarcity 710.

  • Technological and Research Advancements: Ongoing research, such as Alberta’s soil health initiatives and groundwater recharge modeling, provides practical tools for farmers and policymakers. Innovations like AI-powered moisture sensors and digital soil mapping empower data-driven decisions, enhancing water efficiency and crop yields 59.

Adapting to a drier, warming climate on the Prairies demands proactive measures in agriculture, water management, and ecosystem protection. By integrating conservation practices, leveraging technology, and fostering collaboration, stakeholders can mitigate risks and seize opportunities in a changing environment. These strategies are particularly relevant for those with interests in soil moisture and water movement under dry conditions 11.

  1. https://www.grainews.ca/columns/drought-preparedness-through-soil-and-crop-management/
  2. https://extension.sdstate.edu/conserving-soil-moisture-during-dry-conditions
  3. https://organicagcentre.ca/uncategorized/these-soil-water-practices-help-alberta-farms-thrive-through-climate-change/
  4. https://organicagcentre.ca/sustainable-food-systems/alberta-farmers-are-beating-climate-change-heres-their-secret/
  5. https://organicagcentre.ca/uncategorized/smart-water-tech-thats-revolutionizing-albertas-soil-health/
  6. https://organicagcentre.ca/water-management-and-conservation/regional-water-conservation/these-soil-moisture-sensors-are-saving-alberta-farmers-30-on-water-costs/
  7. https://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/En56-119-1-1997-1E.pdf
  8. https://climatewest.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Snapshot-Changing_Prairie-Climate-2022.pdf
  9. https://albertainnovates.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/WIP-WSWM-2334-N-Reducing-the-uncertainty-in-groundwater-availability-and-its-sensitivity-to-land-use-and-climate-variability.pdf
  10. https://changingclimate.ca/regional-perspectives/chapter/4-0/
  11. interests.soil_science
  12. https://www.producer.com/crops/soil-moisture-management-in-dry-times/
  13. https://www.parc.ca/saskadapt/cc-research-highlights/ccia-research-prairies.html
  14. https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/download/69090.pdf
  15. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/maps-tools-publications/satellite-elevation-air-photos/soil-moisture
  16. https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/ab49b42e-7ff6-4e61-b568-20e840a68b9d/resource/e67e6d49-02e0-46b4-aee8-e3933f073907/download/soil-moisture-temperature-consideration.pdf
  17. https://www.producer.com/markets/prairie-soil-moisture-conditions-not-a-concern/
  18. https://www.alberta.ca/climate-smart-agriculture-adaptation
  19. https://www.ucalgary.ca/sustainability/mobilizing-alberta/climate-action-blogs/how-does-climate-change-affect-farming
  20. https://www.ualberta.ca/en/folio/2022/07/new-soil-database-will-help-alberta-farmers-plot-out-sustainable-practices.html
  21. https://www.aquanty.com/blog/hgs-research-highlight-reclamation-for-aspen-revegetation-in-the-athabasca-oil-sands-understanding-soil-water-dynamics-through-unsaturated-flow-modelling
  22. https://www.canada.ca/en/natural-resources-canada/news/2024/12/canada-invests-in-climate-change-adaptation-to-keep-communities-safe-in-the-prairies-and-across-canada0.html
  23. https://press.ucalgary.ca/books/9781552388198/
  24. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/sites/nrcan/files/earthsciences/pdf/assess/2016/Chapter-5e.pdf
  25. https://climatewest.ca/climate-ready-prairies/
  26. https://www.drought.gov/documents/2020-2021-drought-us-northern-plains-and-canadian-prairies
  27. https://news.westernu.ca/2021/10/expert-insights-ancient-techniques-may-help-mitigate-effects-of-prairie-drought/
  28. https://albertawilderness.ca/survival-in-drought/
  29. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0167198786903399
  30. https://www.stalbertgazette.com/local-news/research-project-aims-to-conserve-grassland-and-improve-carbon-sequestration-7734828

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