Mekong Delta Condition as of Late June 2025

1. Saltwater Intrusion and Drought

• The Mekong Delta is experiencing heightened saltwater intrusion, with levels exceeding normal for 2025. This is primarily due to declining dry season river flows and continued upstream hydropower operations, which reduce fresh water reaching the delta^[1][2].
• Salinity has penetrated 30–55 km inland in various river branches, with some areas like Ca Mau Province recording higher salinity than in previous years. For example, the Hau River at Dai Ngai (30 km from the mouth) reached 7.8‰ salinity, 4.5‰ higher than last year^[1][3].
• The dry season arrived earlier than usual, intensifying drought conditions. Rainfall has been limited, making it difficult for communities to store enough fresh water for domestic use^[3][2].

2. Flood and High Tide Risks

• While 2025 is expected to bring smaller seasonal floods in early October, there is a significant risk that flood peaks could coincide with unusually high tides, causing widespread waterlogging and inundation in vulnerable areas^[4][5].
• In June 2025, two high tides are forecast to be 13–38 cm above historical averages, raising the risk of flooding, especially in low-lying and coastal areas^[5].
• Heavy rainfall in some coastal regions (e.g., An Bien, U Minh, Thoi Binh) has been reported, further complicating water management^[5].

3. Water Management and Community Response

• Authorities have urged proactive measures: storing rainwater, reinforcing embankments, and closely monitoring tides and river levels to minimize agricultural and livelihood losses^[1][4][3][2].
• Infrastructure projects, such as new rural water supply systems, are being implemented to address the acute shortage of fresh water in regions like Ca Mau, which lack major upstream river inflows^[3].

4. Underlying Causes and Broader Crisis

• The Mekong Delta is suffering from a "double water crisis": climate change (causing more extreme weather, sea level rise, and unpredictable rainfall) and upstream dam operations (which reduce sediment and water flow, accelerating erosion and salinization)^[6][2].
• Long-term projections are dire: by 2100, up to 40% of the Delta could be underwater, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions in Vietnam’s key rice-producing region^[6].

Summary Table: Mekong Delta, June 2025

Issue	Current Status (June 2025)
Saltwater Intrusion	Above normal, 30–55 km inland; salinity at record highs in some areas
Drought	Early and severe dry season; limited rainfall and freshwater storage
Flood/High Tide Risk	Small seasonal floods expected, but high tides (13–38 cm above average) risk waterlogging
Water Management Response	Rainwater storage, embankment reinforcement, new water supply projects
Underlying Drivers	Climate change, upstream dam operations, reduced sediment and freshwater flow

Conclusion

The Mekong Delta in mid-2025 faces a complex crisis: intensified saltwater intrusion and drought, combined with the threat of flooding from high tides and localized rains. These challenges are driven by both climate change and human activities upstream, putting Vietnam’s “rice bowl” and millions of livelihoods at risk^{[1][3][6][5][2]}.

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• https://en.sggp.org.vn/mekong-delta-forecast-to-experience-high-saltwater-intrusion-in-2025-post115665.html    
• https://asianews.network/mekong-delta-faces-intensifying-saltwater-intrusion-amid-declining-dry-season-flow/     
• https://en.sggp.org.vn/mekong-delta-prepared-for-2025-drought-and-salinity-crisis-post115642.html     
• https://en.sggp.org.vn/flood-peak-in-mekong-delta-can-coincide-with-high-tide-peaks-at-end-of-2025-post117654.html  
• https://en.sggp.org.vn/meteorologists-warn-of-flooding-due-to-high-tides-in-mekong-delta-post117940.html    
• https://spheresofinfluence.ca/the-mekong-delta-crisis-why-viet-nams-rice-bowl-is-at-risk/