2025 Canadian Federal Election Results in Alberta: Conservative Stronghold with Liberal Breakthroughs

The 2025 Canadian federal election held on April 28 has delivered a mix of expected outcomes and surprising shifts in Alberta. While the province maintained its status as a Conservative stronghold, preliminary results indicate significant Liberal gains in urban centers. This election marks a potential turning point in Alberta's federal political landscape, with Liberals eyeing their best performance in the province in over 75 years amid a shifting national political climate.

National Context and Alberta's Position

The 2025 federal election has resulted in a Liberal victory nationally, with Mark Carney's Liberals projected to form the next government. After five weeks of intense campaigning, early results showed Liberals leading in 156 ridings compared to 131 for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, short of the 172 seats needed for a majority government4. This election took place against the backdrop of significant economic and geopolitical challenges, including tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump's administration and threats of tariffs and annexation12.

Alberta, traditionally a Conservative bastion, entered this election with a redrawn electoral map featuring 37 ridings (up from 34 in 2021). Final polling showed Conservatives maintaining dominant support at 58% in Alberta, with Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 7%10. This represented a significant shift from 2021, when Conservatives won 30 Alberta seats with 55.3% of the vote, while Liberals won only 2 seats with 15.5% and the NDP also won 2 seats with 19.1% support8. The doubling of Liberal support and collapse of NDP backing created competitive races in several urban ridings15.

Conservative Dominance Across Rural Alberta

As expected, Conservative candidates swept rural Alberta ridings. Results confirmed Conservative victories across southern and central Alberta, including:

Southern Alberta

Airdrie-Cochrane: Blake Richards (Conservative)6 7
Battle River-Crowfoot: Damien Kurek (Conservative)6 7
Bow River: David Bexte (Conservative) - replacing retired MP Martin Shields6 7 14
Foothills: John Barlow (Conservative)6 7
Lethbridge: Rachael Thomas (Conservative)6 7 14
Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner: Glen Motz (Conservative)6 7
Ponoka-Didsbury: Blaine Calkins (Conservative)6 7
Red Deer: Burton Bailey (Conservative) - replacing Earl Dreeshen6 7
Yellowhead: William Stevenson (Conservative)6 7

Northern Alberta

Grande Prairie: Chris Warkentin (Conservative)6 7
Parkland: Dane Lloyd (Conservative)6 7
Peace River-Westlock: Arnold Viersen (Conservative)6 7
Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan: Garnett Genuis (Conservative)6 7
St. Albert-Sturgeon River: Michael Cooper (Conservative)6 7

In rural ridings such as Lethbridge, Conservative incumbents like Rachael Thomas maintained substantial leads over Liberal challengers like former mayor Chris Spearman14. Political sociologist Trevor Harrison noted the results were unsurprising, stating, "I'm definitely not surprised that Rachael Thomas is going to win"14.

Calgary: Conservative Strength with Liberal Inroads

Calgary's electoral map showed a mix of firm Conservative holds and potential Liberal breakthroughs:

Confirmed Conservative Victories

Calgary Heritage: Shuv Majumdar (Conservative)6 7
Calgary Midnapore: Stephanie Kusie (Conservative)6 7
Calgary Nose Hill: Michelle Rempel Garner (Conservative)6 7

Competitive Battleground Ridings

Several Calgary ridings emerged as key battlegrounds where Liberals mounted serious challenges:

Calgary Centre: Conservative incumbent Greg McLean faced a strong challenge from Liberal businesswoman Lindsay Luhnau. This riding flipped to Conservatives with a 20,000-vote victory in 2019, but Liberals regained ground in 2025515.
Calgary Confederation: With Conservative MP Len Webber not seeking re-election, Jeremy Nixon (Conservative) competed against Corey Hogan (Liberal). Early polls indicated this was a toss-up between the two parties515.
Calgary Skyview: This Liberal-held riding saw Hafeez Malik (Liberal) facing Amanpreet Gill (Conservative), with polls giving Liberals a slight edge515.
Calgary McKnight: This newly created riding featured incumbent Liberal MP George Chahal against Conservative Dalwinder Gill. Chahal's potential re-election would make history as the first-ever Liberal to be re-elected in Calgary15.

Edmonton: Competitive Battles in Urban Ridings

Edmonton featured some of the most competitive races in the province:

Edmonton Griesbach: NDP incumbent Blake Desjarlais, who narrowly defeated Conservative Kerry Diotte in 2021, faced a rematch with polls showing another tight race515.
Edmonton Centre: With Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault not seeking re-election after resigning from cabinet amid controversy, army veteran Elenor Olszewski (Liberal) competed against Sayid Ahmed (Conservative) and former broadcaster Trisha Estabrooks (NDP)515.
Edmonton Gateway: This newly created riding saw a complicated race after the Liberals replaced candidate Rod Loyola (who then ran as an independent) with lawyer Jeremy Hoefsloot against Conservative Tim Uppal515.
Edmonton Southeast: Former Edmonton mayor Amarjeet Sohi ran as the Liberal candidate against Conservative Jagaran Singhal and NDP's Harpeet Grewal9.
Edmonton Strathcona: NDP incumbent Heather McPherson, who won decisively in 2021 with 60% support, defended her seat against Liberal Ron Thiering and Conservative Miles Berry9.

Historic Shift in Alberta's Political Landscape

The 2025 election represents a potential watershed moment in Alberta's federal political landscape. While results were still being tallied, analysts projected Liberals could win up to six seats in Alberta-four in Calgary and two in Edmonton15. This would mark their strongest performance in the province since 1949, when they won five seats15.

The Liberal Party last won more than five seats in Alberta in 1940, when they captured seven of the province's then-17 ridings15. Until 2015, Calgary had not elected a Liberal MP since 1968-a streak that began and ended with Pierre and Justin Trudeau respectively16.

Political scientist Lori Williams from Mount Royal University noted the significance of this shift: "Before 2015, during federal elections, Alberta was often a flyover province... It's clear that there's a lot more going on in Alberta than monolithic conservatism"16.

Factors Behind the Shifting Electoral Landscape

Several key factors contributed to the changing electoral dynamics in Alberta:

Leadership Change: Mark Carney's selection as Liberal leader following Justin Trudeau's resignation rejuvenated Liberal prospects11.
U.S. Relations Concerns: Fears about Donald Trump's tariffs and annexation threats made national security and economic stability key issues, potentially benefiting Liberals12.
NDP Collapse: The NDP vote "seems to be collapsing" according to analysts, with their support dropping from 19.1% in 2021 to approximately 7% in 202516.
Demographic Shifts: Urban areas, particularly in Calgary and Edmonton, showed increased openness to non-Conservative candidates15.
Record Advance Voting: A record 7.3 million Canadians voted in advance polls, including substantial participation in Alberta, indicating high voter engagement4.

Conclusion

While Alberta remains predominantly Conservative, the 2025 federal election signals an evolving political landscape in the province. The Conservatives maintained their rural strongholds and many urban seats, but Liberals made significant inroads in key battleground ridings. This shift reflects broader changes in Alberta's political identity, challenging the notion of "monolithic conservatism" that has defined the province's federal politics for generations.

As vote counting continues in close races, the final tally will determine whether this election represents a temporary aberration or the beginning of a more competitive multi-party environment in Alberta federal politics. Either way, the 2025 election has demonstrated that Alberta is no longer simply a "flyover province" but an important battleground where national parties must compete vigorously for support.

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