A good analog is the movement of Earth's tectonic plates: Pressures build up over time to the point where earthquakes occur and pressures are released.
Something like that is now happening where the Western Empire and the Russian Empire have been grinding against one another in the Black Sea/ Ukraine area.
Meanwhile, the Russian Empire and the Chinese Empire are feeling an increased attraction towards one another against the "putsch" of the Western Empire, that they have both been experiencing for some time.
Akin to Ukraine, Taiwan is the sore spot between the Chinese Empire and the Western Empire.
The sheer momentum of the movement of empires is similar to that of tectonic plates and should not be confused with the wills and whims of individual leaders, who tend to ride-alongs rather than what they are perceived to be by the general populace.
Highly recommended reading: "1984" by George Orwell.
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