Alberta West News: Connection Between Low Subsoil Moisture and Lake Water Levels in Central Alberta

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Connection Between Low Subsoil Moisture and Lake Water Levels in Central Alberta

Overview

Central Alberta has experienced below-average subsoil moisture and historically low water levels in area lakes in 2025. These two phenomena are closely linked through the region’s hydrological cycle, with drought conditions amplifying both issues.

Subsoil Moisture Conditions

Sub-surface soil moisture in Central Alberta is rated as only 42% good to excellent, which is below the five- and ten-year averages12.
Recent rainfall has provided some short-term relief, but dryness persists in many areas, especially after warm and dry winds3.
Soil moisture levels, both at the surface and sub-surface, are critical for supporting vegetation and maintaining groundwater recharge.

Lake Water Levels

Lakes such as Gull Lake, Pigeon Lake, and Buffalo Lake are experiencing well below normal water levels4 56.
Some lakes are at historic lows, with marinas and docks left high and dry, and boat launches unusable56.
Water supply outlooks for the region forecast much below average river and lake volumes for the summer of 20257.

Hydrological Connection

How Subsoil Moisture Affects Lake Levels

Subsoil moisture acts as a buffer: When subsoil is saturated, excess precipitation can run off into streams and lakes, helping to maintain or raise lake levels.
Low subsoil moisture means less runoff: When the subsoil is dry, it absorbs more rainfall, reducing the amount of water that reaches lakes and rivers8.
Groundwater recharge is reduced: Dry subsoil limits the recharge of groundwater aquifers, which are important sources of baseflow to lakes, especially during dry periods9.
Drought amplifies the effect: Extended periods of low precipitation and high evaporation rates deplete both subsoil moisture and lake levels simultaneously, creating a feedback loop of water scarcity85.

Evidence from Central Alberta

The 2025 drought has led to both low subsoil moisture and declining lake levels across Central Alberta1 2 7 4 56.
Reports indicate that reduced winter and spring precipitation has left soils dry, limiting their ability to contribute to surface water bodies during the melt and rainfall events8.
Lake stabilization systems (such as pumping from rivers) have been halted or are insufficient to offset the deficit caused by ongoing drought and low subsoil moisture5.

Summary Table: 2025 Central Alberta Conditions

Factor	Status (2025)	Impact on Lakes
Subsoil Moisture	Below average1 2 3	Less runoff, less recharge
Precipitation	Below average1 7 8	Lower inflow to lakes
Lake Water Levels	Well below normal4 5 6	Exposed shorelines, low access
Drought Severity	High7 8 6	Amplifies all above effects

Key Takeaways

Low subsoil moisture and low lake levels are directly connected through the region’s water cycle.
Drought conditions in Central Alberta have led to both depleted subsoil moisture and historically low lake levels.
Recovery of lake levels will require sustained periods of above-average precipitation to restore both soil moisture and surface water supplies7 85.

In summary: The persistent drought in Central Alberta has created a strong link between low subsoil moisture and low lake water levels, with each condition reinforcing the other and contributing to ongoing water scarcity in the region1 2 7 8 56.

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