World’s major waterways becoming less reliable transportation corridors due to changing water levels

Major waterways around the world are becoming less reliable for transportation due to shifting and extreme water levels, primarily as a result of climate change. The main impacts include:

• Droughts and Lower Water Levels: Increasingly frequent and prolonged droughts are reducing water levels in major shipping arteries such as the Panama Canal, Rhine River (Europe), and Mississippi River (U.S.). This can limit ship size and cargo, force reductions in the number of vessels allowed through, and even halt navigation entirely during extreme events12345.

  • For example, in 2023-2024, severe drought in Panama caused transit restrictions in the Panama Canal, reducing daily crossings and forcing some ships to reroute, with ripple effects on global supply chains26.

  • European rivers, particularly the Rhine, have seen acute drops in water level, leading to reduced vessel capacity, higher transportation costs, shipment delays, and an overall decrease in reliability for industries reliant on inland shipping748.

• Flooding and High Water Events: On the other extreme, periods of heavy rainfall or rapid snowmelt can cause flooding and too-high water levels for safe navigation. This too can result in the temporary closure of shipping lanes for several days, impacting just-in-time supply chains and increasing costs735.

• Economic Consequences:

  • Increased costs due to limits on shipload, longer transport times, detours, or the need to shift cargo to rail or road transport.

  • Disrupted global trade flows, with bottlenecks especially when alternative routes (e.g., Suez Canal) are also compromised by other geopolitical or weather-related factors23.

  • Studies estimate significant increases in annual transport costs—for example, up to 15% for the Rhine under extreme climate scenarios—and a potential 5% loss of annual shipping volume for some affected waterways7.

• Global Trends:

  • These changes are not temporary. Projections suggest that by 2050, climate-related changes in water levels (less snow storage, more rain in winter, increased evaporation in summer) will further reduce reliability and navigability, affecting both mature corridors (e.g., Europe, North America) and developing regions (e.g., Asia, Africa) as their waterway infrastructure faces mounting stress910.

  • The risks are compounded by the growing scale of ships, which are harder to operate safely in variable water conditions1124.

• Industry Response:

  • Shipping and transport industries are being forced to adapt—using smaller ships, redesigning logistics, switching to rail or road where possible, and investing in climate adaptation for ports and waterways12313.

In summary, climate-driven changes in water levels—both low and high—are increasingly making the world's major waterways less reliable for transportation, with substantial consequences for global trade, costs, and supply chain resilience12345.

1. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/10/drought-trade-rivers-supply-chain/
2. https://www.woodwellclimate.org/drought-panama-canal-7-graphics/
3. https://www.marsh.com/en/risks/climate-change-sustainability/insights/climate-change-implications-maritime-sector.html
4. https://www.waterwaysjournal.net/2023/11/20/unpacking-global-climate-risks-to-water-transport/
5. https://britanniapandi.com/2025/04/climate-change-impact-of-droughts-and-flooding-on-shipping-risks/
6. https://www.xeneta.com/blog/the-spotlight-falls-on-the-impact-of-climate-change-in-maritime-shipping-
7. https://edepot.wur.nl/326447
8. https://www.freit.org/SETC/2024/selected/meuchelboeck.pdf
9. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7096509/
10. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192091930149X
11. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920924001470
12. https://maritime-professionals.com/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-shipping-routes/
13. https://www.earthday.org/churning-up-trouble-shipping-and-the-climate-crisis/
14. https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-transportation
15. https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/article/landsat-based-study-shows-unprecedented-changes-to-worlds-rivers/
16. https://aetransport.org/public/downloads/763ve/5272-514ec60138463.pdf
17. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169418306619
18. https://unctad.org/news/climate-change-impacts-seaports-growing-threat-sustainable-trade-and-development
19. https://www.drought.gov/sectors/navigation-and-transportation
20. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/shipping-great-shrinking-waterways