World weather stability trends

Global weather stability is decreasing, with a clear trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events, driven largely by ongoing global warming. Key points on world weather stability trends are as follows:

• Global Average Temperature Rise: Earth’s temperature has risen by about 0.11°F (0.06°C) per decade since 1850, totaling roughly 2°F (1.1°C). Recent years have seen unprecedented warming, with 2024 recorded as the warmest year since 1850, surpassing 2023, and the past decade including the ten warmest years on record. Land temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures, with 2024 land average about 2.28°C (4.11°F) above pre-industrial levels, and ocean surface temperatures up 1.15°C (2.07°F)^[1][2][3][4].
• Crossing Critical Warming Thresholds: The global average temperature is likely to cross the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels within the next 5-10 years, a limit targeted in international climate agreements. This signals elevated risks of climate instability and extreme events^[3].
• Increased Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather: Climate change is amplifying the frequency and severity of extreme events such as heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and storms worldwide. Analysis shows heavy precipitation events and devastating floods have become more common and intense, consistent with a warmer atmosphere holding more moisture (about 7% moisture increase per 1°C warming). For example, 15 out of 16 recent major floods were driven by climate change-amplified rainfall^{[5][6][7][8][9][10]}.
• Observed Regional and Global Impacts:
• The Arctic experiences warming at roughly three times the global average, leading to more extreme hot days and accelerated ice melt.
• The Amazon rainforest and other critical ecosystems face severe drought and wildfire risk from heating, impacting global carbon cycles and biodiversity.
• Hurricanes and typhoons have intensified in wind speed and rainfall, with climate change increasing the chance of powerful category 3-5 storms.
• Many populated regions saw record or near-record warm averages in 2024, affecting billions of people globally^[7][3][8].
• Non-linear Increase in Extremes: Projections show the frequency of rare extreme events (e.g., 10-year or 50-year floods) may double or triple compared to recent decades, reflecting accelerating instability in weather patterns with higher temperature rises. The relationship between temperature rise and extreme events is strongly nonlinear and expected to worsen without effective emission reductions^[7].

In summary, world weather stability is declining significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with rising temperatures driving more frequent and intense extreme weather. This destabilization poses large risks to ecosystems, human health, infrastructure, and economies globally^{[5][7][3][8][10]}.

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• https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature 
• https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate 
• https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/    
• https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024 
• https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/extreme-weather/  
• https://wmo.int/topics/extreme-weather 
• https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter11.pdf    
• https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/when-risks-become-reality-extreme-weather-in-2024/   
• https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/effects/ 
• https://www.worldweatherattribution.org