Saturday, May 28, 2022

Tide of war in Ukraine

After all the hot air in the world media following the February 24 invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the war is settling into a steady grind where the Russians are gaining the upper hand after adjusting their strategy.

They are sticking to their narrative of a “special operation”, rather than all out war, and they are succeeding in the east and south of Ukraine with Crimea now being connected by a Russian controlled land bridge to Russia itself.

Much has been made of Western support for Ukraine’s military but this has not translated into actual gains on the front lines for the Ukrainian army, other than what early shipments of shoulder mounted anti tank missiles managed to do, mostly.

Meanwhile the Russians have adapted to this deadly threat by using long range weapons to reach their targets, instead of tanks and such.

And as far as the Ukrainians bringing long range guns supplied by the West to the front lines, the Russians have total air superiority in Ukraine and can interrupt the supply lines for these weapons at will, on land or at sea.

My best guess is that the Russians will proceed to consolidate their position in the east and south of Ukraine and have a ‘vote’ on whether the locals will remain with Russia. Along the same pattern used in Crimea which has a sizable Russian population, as does Eastern Ukraine.

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