Thursday, October 2, 2025

Were regional climate patterns responsible for September 2025 warmth?

Yes, regional climate patterns were directly responsible for the exceptional warmth in Calgary during September 2025. The primary driver was a strong, persistent ridge of high pressure—often called an "Omega block"—which established itself over western Canada. This ridge led to a dramatic northward bulge in the jet stream, cutting off the flow of cooler, wetter weather systems and trapping hot, dry air over Alberta and much of the Prairies.news.yahoo+2

This atmospheric blocking pattern created a prolonged period of above-normal temperatures, with some regions experiencing temperatures 10–15°C above typical September values. Similar climate anomalies were reported province-wide, leading not only to warmth but also to the extreme drought conditions observed.news.yahoo+2

Atmospheric forecasts anticipated these patterns several months in advance, with environment agencies expecting both above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for much of Alberta through September 2025. There was no significant El Niño or La Niña at play during this time, so the blocking high was a dominant regional force, not a global climate oscillation effect.open.alberta+1

In summary, the record warmth was caused by a lasting ridge of high pressure (blocking pattern) and a distorted jet stream, driving local atmospheric conditions that favored persistent heat.producer+2

  1. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/temperature-reversal-flipping-summer-switch-141139177.html
  2. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/unusual-september-warm-hits-part-134353092.html
  3. https://www.producer.com/news/blocking-patterns-lead-to-heat-waves/
  4. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/coast-coast-september-treat-bonus-005445681.html
  5. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/canadas-september-heat-record-in-peril-as-hot-weather-hits-the-west-coast
  6. https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/bc74a31a-bb9c-4de1-8a28-52cce5222c43/resource/2acf348d-a7b7-43a2-96da-d211741852c3/download/fp-wildfire-predictive-services-seasonal-outlook-2025-07-to-2025-09.pdf
  7. https://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/?p=173628
  8. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/calgary-faces-driest-september-in-more-than-100-years-alberta
  9. https://climate.weather.gc.ca
  10. https://weatherspark.com/h/m/2349/2025/9/Historical-Weather-in-September-2025-in-Calgary-Alberta-Canada
  11. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2025/09/recent-canadian-heat-waves-made-much-more-likely-by-human-caused-climate-change.html
  12. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/may-hard-believe-snow-chances-122213866.html
  13. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/calgary-most-alberta-expected-see-175732876.html
  14. https://en.climate-data.org/north-america/canada/alberta-921/r/september-9/
  15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jOio8zb3nE
  16. https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/article/false-fall-front-canadians-could-potentially-see-one-last-burst-of-summer/
  17. https://www.travelalberta.com/know-before-you-go/climate-weather
  18. https://www.edmonton.ca/sites/default/files/public-files/Understanding-Edmontons-Changing-Climate-2025.pdf?cb=1749782410
  19. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2025/09/16/two-jet-streams-meandering-storm-us
  20. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/forecast-september-unusual-polar-vortex-cold-anomaly-united-states-canada-fa/

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