Trump will likely scrap CUSMA when it comes up for renewal

President Trump is taking a highly confrontational stance toward CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) as its renewal approaches, with signals suggesting he may push for a major renegotiation or even threaten to unilaterally withdraw if his demands aren't met.search.open.canada+3​

Trump’s Approach to CUSMA Renewal

• Trump has already terminated trade talks with Canada following recent disputes and has imposed significant tariffs on Canadian imports, disregarding established CUSMA provisions.nytimes+1​

• The administration is fast-tracking the review process with the United States Trade Representative (USTR) required to issue recommendations on CUSMA ahead of schedule, potentially jumpstarting an early, aggressive negotiation or rewrite.nationalmagazine+1​

• Trump’s principal focus areas include automotive and aerospace rules of origin, border security, digital services taxes, dairy tariff quotas, and new curbs on Chinese companies in North America, all of which point toward a willingness to disrupt or radically reshape the current trade pact.search.open.canada+1​

Renegotiation and Potential Outcomes

• Most trade analysts expect Trump to leverage the renewal process to pressure Canada and Mexico for concessions—using tariffs and threats of withdrawal—rather than proceed with a smooth extension.cdhowe+1​

• There is broad consensus among experts that the administration is “emboldened” and may not feel constrained by established negotiation procedures or Canada's position, raising the risk of protracted disputes or new trade barriers.nationalmagazine+1​

Implications for CUSMA’s Future

• CUSMA's scheduled joint review is set for July 2026, but Trump is pushing for earlier action, with the possibility of withholding US approval for the extension unless significant changes are made to align with US interests.nationalmagazine+1​

• While outright scrapping of CUSMA remains a possibility, the more likely outcome is a contentious renegotiation—potentially leading to a “take it or leave it” stance from the Trump administration, or a patchwork of bilateral deals outside the traditional framework.cdhowe+1​

In summary, although Trump may not formally scrap CUSMA outright, escalating trade tensions and aggressive demands mean its renewal is far from assured, and a major shakeup or breakdown of trilateral trade is very possible under the current US administration.reuters+2​

1. https://search.open.canada.ca/qpnotes/record/dfatd-maecd,00006-2025
2. https://www.nationalmagazine.ca/en-ca/articles/law/hot-topics-in-law/2025/what-becomes-of-cusma-in-the-throes-of-a-trade-war
3. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/23/us/politics/trump-trade-negotiation-canada.html
4. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-all-trade-talks-with-canada-are-terminated-2025-10-24/
5. https://cdhowe.org/publication/lets-move-past-the-cusma-renewal-fantasy/
6. https://nationalmagazine.ca/en-ca/articles/law/hot-topics-in-law/2025/what-becomes-of-cusma-in-the-throes-of-a-trade-war
7. https://thehub.ca/2025/10/02/need-to-know-what-happens-if-canada-and-the-u-s-cant-come-to-an-agreement-on-cusma/
8. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/opinion-whats-strategy-cusma-renewal-100011024.html
9. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjrlmd4pmeo
10. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/market-outlook/2025/10/07/market-outlook-carneys-washington-visit-signals-early-test-for-canada-us-trade-relations/
11. https://international.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/consultations/trade/2025-09-19-cusma
12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Mexico%E2%80%93Canada_Agreement
13. https://www.facebook.com/CanadaTrade/posts/-reminder-the-public-consultations-on-the-canadaunited-statesmexico-agreement-cu/1107113184928038/
14. https://cdhowe.org/publication/canada-needs-a-framework-for-cusma-renewal-before-its-too-late/
15. https://www.csis.org/analysis/usmca-review-2026
16. https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cusma-aceum/index.aspx?lang=eng
17. https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement
18. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-united-states-mexico-canada-agreement-delivers-historic-win-american-workers/
19. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/
20. https://globalnews.ca/news/11490271/donald-trump-tariffs-supreme-court-case-vital/