Likely increase in value of lands sitting on top of significant aquifers as we dry out

Lands situated over significant aquifers are increasingly seeing a premium in market value, especially as droughts intensify and water security becomes a greater concern in agriculture and rural property markets. Access to reliable groundwater for irrigation or domestic use is a critical factor in property appraisals and is drawing heightened interest from both buyers and investors in many regions prone to water scarcity.waterforfood.nebraska+3​

Land Value Trends Under Drought

• Recent studies and reports indicate that irrigated lands—those with access to groundwater via wells—command higher sale prices and rental rates than non-irrigated lands.purdue+1​

• For example, studies of farmland in the High Plains Aquifer show irrigated land is valued $1,700–$3,000 per acre higher in Nebraska, roughly $1,500 per acre higher in Kansas, and up to $4,000 more in Texas compared to neighboring dryland.waterforfood.nebraska​

• In Kansas, groundwater access increased farmland values by up to 50%.waterforfood.nebraska​

Why Aquifer Access Matters

• Groundwater acts as a safety net during drought, supporting crop yields and allowing productivity where surface water sources may have dried up or become unreliable.research.manchester+1​

• Land with private or community wells sees measurable price premiums, as the cost and complexity of drilling deep wells can add substantial value for buyers in drought-affected regions.bluecollarcommercialgroup+1​

• Properties connected to robust aquifers such as the Edwards in Texas are classified in better risk categories and command premium prices versus those relying on impaired water sources.rentecdirect+1​

Factors Affecting Premium Size

• The thickness and yield of the underlying aquifer can influence the magnitude of the value premium, with greater aquifer thickness corresponding to better drought resilience and higher land prices.research.manchester​

• Well yield is especially valuable, but its measurement is often private information, so proxies like saturated aquifer thickness are used in valuation studies, though these come with limitations.californiawater+1​

• Legal water rights and regulations also directly impact land values: properties with secured and transferable water rights may receive additional premiums relative to comparable properties with uncertain water access.rentecdirect​

Real Estate Market Implications

• Persistent and worsening drought conditions are leading many investors and buyers to prioritize groundwater access in property selection, shifting regional “hot spots” for land purchases to areas with reliable aquifers.landhub+1​

• Properties not only in agricultural regions but also in rural residential zones can see value increases if they have access to aquifer-fed wells, particularly where municipal water may be limited or unreliable.californiawater+1​

• As water scarcity deepens, exclusion from aquifer access or rising costs for deeper wells may conversely depress the value of land over poor or depleted groundwater sources.californiawater​

In summary, lands sitting atop significant aquifers are increasingly valued—often with substantial premiums—by both agricultural and non-agricultural buyers as groundwater becomes a central asset in drought-prone landscapes.landhub+4​

1. https://waterforfood.nebraska.edu/news-and-events/news/2022/06/what-do-we-know-about-groundwater-access-and-farmland-values
2. https://www.rentecdirect.com/blog/understanding-real-estate-water-rights-implications-for-investors/
3. https://www.landhub.com/land-news/how-climate-trends-are-changing-the-best-places-to-buy-land-in-the-us
4. https://bluecollarcommercialgroup.com/after-the-deluge-a-special-report-on-comal-countys-water-future-and-real-estate-landscape/
5. https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/paer-article/farmland-prices-increase-despite-downward-pressure-2025/
6. https://research.manchester.ac.uk/files/282726594/NatureWater_Foster2023.pdf
7. https://www.californiawater.org/wp-content/uploads/Groundwater-and-House-Prices.pdf
8. https://www.agwestfc.com/about/stories/community/community-story/land-report/2025/08/07/land-values---august-2025
9. https://www.propublica.org/article/water-aquifers-groundwater-rising-ocean-levels
10. https://www.swanlandco.com/2025/03/25/2025-land-market-outlook/
11. https://grandcanyoninstitute.org/research/water/groundwater-getting-to-safe-yield-by-2025/
12. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/728988
13. https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3091/egusphere-2025-3091.pdf
14. https://climatecheck.com/blog/how-drought-can-damage-property-and-pose-risk-for-real-estate-investors
15. https://www.therealval.com/blog/water-rights-the-new-dealbreaker-in-us-commercial-real-estate
16. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378377418313015
17. https://www.theenergymix.com/groundwater-is-drying-out-heating-up-and-causing-sea-level-rise/
18. https://www.usgs.gov/water-science-school/science/drought-and-groundwater-levels
19. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10811753/
20. https://www.drought.gov/sectors/agriculture