State of the Missouri/Mississippi Water Storage System - September 2025

The Missouri/Mississippi river system is experiencing significant stress and low water conditions as of September 27, 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of drought-related low water levels across key portions of the system.drought+1

Missouri River System Storage

Reservoir Storage Status: The Missouri River mainstem reservoir system currently holds 50.1 million acre-feet (MAF) of combined storage across the six major reservoirs as of September 1, 2025. This represents 92% of the 1967-2024 average but is 5.7 MAF below the top of the carryover multiple use zone.dvidshub+2

Individual reservoir conditions as of August 31, 2025:dvidshub

• Fort Peck: 12,873,000 acre-feet (89% of average)

• Garrison: 16,331,000 acre-feet (92% of average)

• Oahe: 16,307,000 acre-feet (92% of average)

• Big Bend: 1,692,000 acre-feet (99% of average)

• Fort Randall: 3,431,000 acre-feet (103% of average)

• Gavins Point: 351,000 acre-feet (90% of average)

Runoff Forecasts: The 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, is 20.0-20.2 MAF, representing only 78-79% of average. This reflects continued dry conditions with drought affecting 75% of the basin.dvidshub+1

Mississippi River Conditions

Critical Low Water Levels: The Mississippi River system is experiencing severe low water conditions, particularly in the lower reaches:

• Memphis, Tennessee: Currently forecasted to drop below -8.0 feet by the end of September and to -9.7 feet by mid-October 2025drought

• St. Louis, Missouri: Water levels are approximately 8 feet higher than the same date in 2024, but still concerningagweb

• Current Memphis reading: -6.20 feet as of September 25, 2025rivergages.mvr.usace.army

Ohio River Crisis: The Ohio River contribution has collapsed to only 8% of the overall flow in the Lower Mississippi River, compared to its typical 50% contribution. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois, has dropped below 10 feet and is forecasted to remain below this threshold for at least the next 28 days.drought

Navigation and Economic Impacts

Shipping Restrictions: The U.S. Coast Guard has implemented significant navigation restrictions south of Cairo, Illinois:recyclingtoday+1

• Barge drafts limited to 10 feet maximum

• Tow widths restricted to six barges wide (normally up to eight wide)

• These restrictions extend south to Lake Providence, Louisiana

Agricultural Impact: Grain shipments have collapsed dramatically, with southbound Mississippi grain movements dropping 79% in just over a month, falling from 2.4 million to about 502,000 short tons. Specific commodity impacts include:agdaily

• Corn shipments down 72%

• Soybean shipments down 89%

• Wheat shipments down 55%

Drought Conditions by Basin

Current drought severity across the Mississippi River Basin system:drought

• Ohio River Basin: 72% in Moderate to Extreme Drought

• Lower Mississippi Basin: 44% in Moderate to Extreme Drought

• Missouri River Basin: 20% in Moderate to Extreme Drought

• Tennessee Basin: 19% in Moderate to Extreme Drought

• Upper Mississippi Basin: 18% in Moderate to Severe Drought

Water Management Response

Missouri River Operations: Winter releases from Gavins Point Dam will operate at minimum rates of 12,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), with navigation support season ending December 1, 2025. Current releases are providing reduced navigation flow support at 4,000 cfs below full service.dvidshub+1

Precipitation Outlook: Despite some expected precipitation in the next seven days, much of the Ohio River Basin will continue receiving less than an inch of precipitation. The seasonal outlook shows drought is expected to persist and expand across significant portions of the Mississippi River Basin through December 31, 2025.drought

The system faces a critical period with the fourth consecutive year of low water conditions threatening navigation, agriculture, and water supply across the nation's most important inland waterway system. The combination of Ohio River drought and Missouri River below-average storage creates compounding stress on the overall Mississippi River system's water availability.dvidshub+1

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