Net gain/loss of aggregate ground moisture over the last 10 years on the Canadian Prairies

Net Ground Moisture Loss on Canadian Prairies (2015-2025)

Based on comprehensive analysis of drought monitoring data, agricultural reports, and climate research, the Canadian Prairies have experienced a significant net loss of aggregate ground moisture over the past decade, with the most severe deficits occurring during the 2020-2023 period.

Key Findings

Overall Trend: Net Moisture Loss
The 10-year period shows a clear pattern of moisture depletion despite some recovery in recent years. The Prairie region experienced what researchers describe as "once-in-50-year lows" during the critical 2020-2023 drought period.grainswest

Major Drought Periods

• 2015: Significant drought affecting 55-60% of agricultural land at peak, with 34% of cereal and grain production impactedpublications

• 2020-2023: The most severe sustained drought, representing once-in-50-year conditions for many regionsgrainswest

• 2025: Mixed conditions with 53% of agricultural regions experiencing drought by May-Junepublications

Regional Moisture Deficits (2020-2023)

The most severe four-year drought period resulted in substantial cumulative moisture losses:grainswest

Region	Cumulative Deficit
Calgary to Red Deer corridor	400mm
Northeast Alberta/Peace Region	400mm
Southeast/Southwest Alberta	500-600mm

These deficits represent extraordinary moisture losses that have not been fully recovered despite some improvements in 2024-2025.grainswest

Current Conditions and Recovery

2024-2025 Recovery Patterns
Recent data shows mixed recovery across the region. While some areas experienced improved moisture conditions, particularly in central Saskatchewan and parts of southern Alberta, significant portions of the Prairies continue to face drought conditions.producer+1

Groundwater Impact
Deep aquifer systems have been particularly affected, with monitoring wells showing substantial declines in groundwater levels. Climate scientists report that "in parts of Alberta where there's been drought for four or five years, we're seeing groundwater levels drop quite substantially".cbc

Current Status (2025)
As of mid-2025, soil moisture conditions remain below historical averages. Alberta's July 2025 crop report indicates surface soil moisture rated "good to excellent" at only 53% provincially, compared to 5-year and 10-year averages of approximately 60%.open.alberta

Agricultural Impact

The moisture deficits have had substantial agricultural consequences. Prairie soil moisture conditions have consistently tracked below normal, with surface and subsurface moisture ratings declining significantly during drought periods. The agricultural sector has faced reduced crop yields, stressed pasture conditions, and increased irrigation demands.open.alberta

Long-term Implications

Climate projections suggest continued challenges for Prairie moisture balance. Research indicates that while precipitation may increase slightly in some areas, enhanced evapotranspiration due to warming temperatures will likely result in net moisture stress. Future projections show "enhanced dryness throughout western Canada" due to increased evapotranspiration rates exceeding precipitation gains.data.parc

The decade-long analysis reveals that despite year-to-year variability and some recent recovery, the Canadian Prairies have experienced a substantial net loss of ground moisture, with the 2020-2023 drought representing a particularly severe depletion that continues to influence regional water resources and agricultural systems.

canadian_prairie_drought_timeline_2015_2025.csv

Generated File

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