Central Alberta Subsoil Moisture Conditions: February 2025 Analysis

The current state of subsoil moisture in central Alberta presents a complex picture marked by significant regional variations and long-term precipitation deficits that continue to impact agricultural potential and water resource management across the region. As of February 2025, central Alberta's subsoil moisture status reflects both the persistent drought conditions that dominated much of 2024 and the modest improvements that began in late fall, creating a landscape of differential moisture conditions that farmers and water managers must carefully navigate heading into the 2025 growing season.

Historical Context and Long-Term Moisture Deficits

Central Alberta's current subsoil moisture situation cannot be properly understood without considering the multi-year precipitation deficit that has affected the region. According to data from the Government of Alberta's Agro-meteorology Applications and Modelling Unit, the period from 2020 to 2023 represented a once-in-50-year moisture low for areas extending from Calgary to Red Deer and up to Whitecourt1. During this four-year period, the Red Deer area alone lost approximately 400 millimeters of moisture, creating a significant deficit that would require exceptional precipitation to fully recover1.

This long-term deficit has been particularly challenging because Alberta has not experienced a truly wet year capable of fully replenishing surface water supplies and groundwater since 20161. The cumulative effect of these dry years has gradually depleted soil moisture reserves throughout much of central Alberta, creating a situation where even average precipitation is insufficient to restore normal moisture conditions. This historical context explains why, despite some improvements in recent months, central Alberta's subsoil moisture remains a concern as of February 2025.

The Battle River Watershed, which encompasses portions of central-eastern Alberta, exemplifies this pattern. Although fall 2024 brought relatively wet conditions that helped replenish soil moisture reserves in many areas of this watershed, the region continues to suffer from long-term precipitation deficits accumulated over multiple dry years3. When comparing precipitation accumulations over the previous four years to long-term normal conditions, several areas within this watershed have experienced extremely low moisture conditions that typically occur only once in 25 to 50 years, with some areas estimated to be this dry less than once in 50 years3.

Regional Variations in Current Subsoil Moisture

As of February 2025, central Alberta displays significant regional variations in subsoil moisture conditions, with eastern areas generally faring better than western zones. According to Provincial Government moisture mapping, if one draws two lines from Calgary—one to Lloydminster and one to the southeast corner of Alberta—most areas within this eastern triangular region are doing "pretty well" for soil moisture1. This suggests that central-eastern Alberta has experienced relative improvement compared to the more concerning conditions in central-western portions of the province.

The most problematic areas appear to be concentrated along and west of the Highway 2 corridor. A large strip of land extending from Edson to the US border remains very dry, with the areas west of Red Deer being particularly affected4. These regions received less than 50 percent of average precipitation during the final three months of 2024, exacerbating already challenging soil moisture conditions4. The lands around Sundre, located west of Red Deer, have been identified as especially dry, raising significant concerns for agricultural productivity in this part of central Alberta during the 2025 growing season4.

This regional pattern of moisture distribution reflects the weather patterns that dominated 2024. While southern Alberta received substantial rainfall in May 2024 that helped alleviate drought conditions, central Alberta—particularly along the Highway 2 corridor between Red Deer and Edmonton—remained persistently dry throughout the year4. Even when eastern regions received above-normal precipitation in May 2024 (more than 200 percent of monthly average in some areas), this beneficial moisture did not extend to central Alberta's western regions4.

2024 Weather Patterns and Their Impact on Current Conditions

The variability of central Alberta's current subsoil moisture conditions reflects the weather patterns that shaped 2024, which was characterized by significant regional disparities in precipitation. The year began with widespread concerns about drought conditions, with particular attention to low soil moisture levels that threatened crop germination and pasture growth across central Alberta4.

In May 2024, substantial rainfall provided relief to many parts of Alberta, with some regions receiving precipitation levels that occur only once in 12 to 25 years5. This May moisture was crucial, as it came just in time for planting and germination in many agricultural areas. However, this beneficial precipitation was not evenly distributed, with central Alberta—particularly along the Highway 2 corridor—receiving significantly less moisture than other regions4.

The summer months of 2024 brought challenging conditions to central Alberta, with July featuring abnormally hot and dry weather. Areas south of Olds all the way up the QE2 Highway experienced severe dryness, with the Red Deer area suffering one-in-25-to-50-year lows for moisture during this period5. This extreme dryness extended well into the Edmonton area and points north of the Town of Athabasca, posing significant challenges for crop maturation and pasture vitality throughout central Alberta5.

While moisture conditions improved somewhat in August 2024, September and October returned to drier patterns in many areas. By November, precipitation patterns had normalized to some extent, with Alberta settling into what was characterized as "a relatively normal precipitation pattern"5. However, this improvement was not sufficient to overcome the significant moisture deficits that had accumulated throughout the year, particularly in central Alberta's western regions.

Current Water Supply Outlook and River Basin Conditions

The February 2025 water supply outlook for central Alberta's major river basins reflects the ongoing concerns about subsoil moisture conditions. According to Alberta government data as of February 20, 2025, the forecasted river volumes for the March-to-September period are slightly below those observed in 2024, suggesting a continuation of challenging water supply conditions7.

Specifically, the Red Deer River basin forecasts for March-to-September 2025 are categorized as "much below average," indicating significant concerns about water availability in this critical central Alberta watershed7. Similarly, the North Saskatchewan River basin, which encompasses the northern portion of central Alberta, shows forecasts ranging from "below average to much below average" for the same period7. These below-average forecasts for central Alberta's major river basins align with the concerns about subsoil moisture deficits, as river flows in the region are heavily influenced by snowmelt and groundwater conditions.

The water supply forecast is particularly concerning because it is based on February snowpack survey data, which suggests that winter precipitation has not been sufficient to significantly improve the moisture outlook for central Alberta. This insufficient winter precipitation means that central Alberta will be heavily dependent on spring rainfall to replenish soil moisture reserves for the 2025 growing season.

Agricultural Implications for the 2025 Growing Season

The current subsoil moisture conditions in central Alberta have significant implications for agricultural planning and potential productivity in the 2025 growing season. The concerns are particularly acute given the experience of the previous growing season, when drought conditions severely impacted yields in traditionally productive agricultural areas.

In 2024, central Alberta's typically productive farmland experienced dramatic yield reductions due to drought conditions. In areas where central Alberta normally receives ample moisture and averages around 100 bushels per acre for barley, lack of rain cut yields in half1. This substantial yield reduction demonstrates the sensitivity of central Alberta's agricultural systems to moisture deficits and raises concerns about potential similar impacts in 2025 if subsoil moisture conditions do not improve.

Agricultural experts have expressed specific concerns about low soil moisture going into the 2025 growing season potentially affecting seeding, crop emergence, and uniformity1. Heat and drought stress during the grain filling stage in 2024 led to thin kernels in cereal crops across central Alberta, and similar concerns exist for 2025 if adequate spring precipitation does not materialize1. The experience of 2024, when heat waves coinciding with grain filling periods resulted in thin kernels and reduced yields, serves as a cautionary example of the potential challenges that central Alberta farmers may face if subsoil moisture deficits persist.

The variability of Alberta's weather patterns means that timely spring rainfall could still substantially improve the outlook for the 2025 growing season. As noted by agricultural experts, "You can't typically expect to make up a big moisture deficit over the winter, but even an average snowpack would get everyone off to a good start for spring"1. However, the below-average snowpack recorded in February 2025 suggests that central Alberta will be particularly dependent on spring rainfall to overcome the current subsoil moisture deficits.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

As central Alberta moves through February 2025, the subsoil moisture situation presents a complex and concerning picture, particularly for agricultural planning and water resource management. The multi-year precipitation deficit that has accumulated since 2020 continues to impact soil moisture reserves, with central-western regions facing particularly challenging conditions. While some improvement occurred in late 2024, the below-average snowpack and continued dryness in many areas suggest that central Alberta will face ongoing challenges related to subsoil moisture in the coming months.

Looking ahead, the weather patterns of spring 2025 will play a critical role in determining agricultural outcomes for the region. As Ralph Wright of the Province's Agro-meteorology Applications and Modelling Unit noted regarding the moisture outlook, "We need to see the foothills in those areas towards Red Deer and Edmonton continue to have good moisture throughout the winter"5. The variability of Alberta's climate means that significant improvement remains possible if spring brings above-average precipitation.

For central Alberta's farmers, water managers, and policymakers, the current subsoil moisture conditions underscore the importance of adaptive management strategies and contingency planning for potentially challenging growing conditions. While the situation has improved somewhat from the extreme drought conditions of previous years, the persistence of subsoil moisture deficits—particularly in central-western regions—highlights the need for continued attention to water conservation and drought resilience as central Alberta moves through 2025.

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