Attack Drones in Ukraine: Evolution of Modern Aerial Warfare

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has witnessed an unprecedented scale of drone warfare, transforming combat operations and tactics for both Ukrainian and Russian forces. Drones have evolved from supplementary reconnaissance tools to primary offensive weapons, with both sides deploying various unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for targeting enemy positions, infrastructure, and equipment. Recent developments in 2025 show Ukraine planning to procure 4.5 million first-person view (FPV) drones, while Russia continues its campaign of drone attacks against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. This report examines the types of attack drones employed, their strategic impact, procurement initiatives, and the evolution of tactics as drone warfare shapes the modern battlefield.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has elevated drones to a central position in modern warfare, with their impact transforming battlefield dynamics in ways that military strategists are still working to fully comprehend. As Ukrainian Vice-Prime Minister of Innovation Mykhailo Fedorov stated, "Right now, the situation on the battlefield is really dependent on drones, and they are responsible for a very significant percentage of the kills on the battlefield."9 This assessment is supported by research from the London-based Royal United Services Institute, which suggests that Ukraine's attack drones now account for the majority of Russian losses on the battlefield, especially when coordinated with artillery strikes9. The evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine has been characterized as more evolutionary than revolutionary, with drones making common artillery shells into precision weapons and enabling first-person-view kamikaze drones to accurately target mobile units18. The net effect of these developments has been to make defensive positions stronger and frontlines extremely lethal, making it increasingly difficult for either side to mass forces, achieve tactical surprise, or conduct effective offensive operations18.

The deployment of drones has fundamentally altered battlefield visibility and operational security, with both sides struggling to maintain the element of surprise that was once a cornerstone of offensive military operations. Ukrainian military officials report that their forces are fighting what they describe as a "drone war," where unmanned systems are responsible for surveillance, target acquisition, and direct attacks on Russian forces9. This shift toward drone-centric warfare has been accelerated by the relative cost-effectiveness of drones compared to traditional weapons systems, with NATO commander Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi noting that drones are often significantly cheaper to produce than the conventional arms needed to counter them2. The impact of this cost disparity has forced both Ukrainian and Russian forces to adapt their tactics, with heavy machinery such as tanks now positioned several kilometers further back from the front line to avoid drone detection and targeting13. Infantry soldiers consistently cite FPV drones and munition-dropping drones as their greatest threat, creating significant challenges for movement to and from trenches or reinforcement of defensive positions13.

The conflict in Ukraine has seen the deployment of a diverse array of attack drones, ranging from small, commercially available models to sophisticated military-grade systems designed for long-range strikes. First-person view (FPV) drones have emerged as one of the most widely used attack platforms, with Ukraine planning to procure approximately 4.5 million such drones in 20256. These small and economical drones are operated by ground-based pilots and typically carry explosives, crashing into targets in kamikaze-style attacks6. Their effectiveness lies in their precision and cost efficiency, with NATO officials reporting that FPV drones costing under $1,000 each have been responsible for destroying two-thirds of Russian tanks valued at millions of dollars6. The widespread adoption of these systems represents a significant shift in tactical thinking, moving away from reliance on expensive precision munitions toward mass-produced, low-cost alternatives that can achieve similar results through sheer numbers and accuracy16.

Loitering munitions, often referred to as "kamikaze drones," constitute another major category of attack drones utilized in the conflict. These one-way attack drones (OWA-UAVs) are designed to find targets and crash into them, combining the surveillance capabilities of reconnaissance drones with the destructive power of precision munitions315. Russia primarily employs the Lancet drone as its loitering munition of choice, which has a range of up to 40km with 40 minutes of endurance and has been particularly effective against Ukrainian artillery installations4. According to Ukrainian sources, the Lancet drone has destroyed or damaged over 106 self-propelled artillery systems and 131 howitzers, including two dozen M777 howitzers4. Ukrainian artillery crews have identified Lancet drones as the main threat they face, especially with the significant increase in strikes in recent months as Russia has shifted from counter-battery fire to loitering munitions for targeting Ukrainian artillery positions4. In response to this threat, Ukraine has employed various countermeasures including pickup trucks equipped with machine guns, military aircraft for drone interception, and is exploring alternatives such as FPV interceptor drones and laser systems2.

The Bayraktar TB2, a medium-altitude long-endurance unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) manufactured by Turkey, gained significant attention early in the conflict for its successful strikes against Russian forces and equipment11. According to video footage released by Ukrainian armed forces, TB2 drones successfully destroyed Russian command posts, military vehicles including tanks and IFVs, surface-to-air missile systems, self-propelled artillery, multiple rocket launchers, howitzers, electronic warfare systems, fuel trains, patrol boats, and even a helicopter11. However, the role of these drones has evolved as Russian air defenses have improved, with Colonel Volodymyr Valiukh of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate reporting in late 2023 that "For the TB2, I don't want to use the word useless, but it is hard to find situations where to use them."511 By June 2023, the remaining TB2 drones had transitioned from attack to reconnaissance roles, staying outside the range of Russian air defenses and using their more advanced optics and sensors to guide other drones11. According to the Oryx Blog, as of February 2025, 26 Bayraktar TB2s have been destroyed, either on the ground or having been shot down by Russian forces11.

The strategic impact of attack drones in Ukraine extends beyond tactical advantages, fundamentally altering the nature of the conflict and forcing military planners to reconsider traditional approaches to warfare. Ukraine has honed its drone capabilities to the point where these tools have become among its most potent weapons in fighting back against Russia's full-scale invasion9. The mass deployment of drones has created a battlefield environment where concealment and dispersal have become paramount for survival, as the omnipresent threat of drone surveillance and strikes makes troop concentrations increasingly vulnerable18. This dynamic has contributed significantly to the defensive dominance observed in the conflict, where offensive operations face extraordinary challenges due to the transparency and lethality of the frontlines18. Nevertheless, military analysts note that offensive operations remain feasible when environmental factors that inhibit drone operations, such as adverse weather conditions, can be exploited18.

The evolution of drone tactics has been characterized by rapid innovation and adaptation as both sides seek advantages in this new domain of warfare. Ukraine's approach to drone warfare has been particularly notable for its embracing of artificial intelligence to enhance drone effectiveness14. According to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ukraine has taken publicly available AI models, retrained them on extensive real-world data from frontline combat, and deployed them on various drones—increasing their odds of hitting Russian targets "three- or four-fold"14. By removing the need for constant manual control and stable communications, drones enabled with autonomous navigation have raised the target engagement success rate from 10-20 percent to approximately 70-80 percent14. This dramatic improvement allows Ukrainian forces to achieve objectives using just one or two drones per target rather than eight or nine, significantly enhancing operational efficiency and resource utilization14.

Electronic warfare has emerged as a critical component of drone operations, with both Russia and Ukraine employing sophisticated jamming technologies to disrupt enemy drone communications2. The extensive use of electronic warfare tactics has rendered conventional drones increasingly ineffective, spurring the development of drones with automated targeting capabilities that utilize artificial intelligence to guide the drone to its target after a pilot identifies it via the drone's camera2. Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, who heads Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, estimates that at least half of Ukraine's drone units now utilize such systems to varying degrees, and he anticipates that most combat drones will eventually adopt this technology2. This technological arms race highlights the dynamic nature of drone warfare in Ukraine, where advancements in one area quickly prompt countermeasures and further innovations, creating a constantly evolving battlefield environment that challenges traditional military doctrine and planning2.

Ukraine has embarked on an ambitious program to vastly expand its drone capabilities, with plans to procure approximately 4.5 million first-person view (FPV) drones in 2025, marking a threefold increase compared to the previous year's figures6. Hlib Kanevsky, who oversees procurement policy at the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, has stated that in 2024, Ukraine acquired more than 1.5 million drones, with an impressive 96% sourced from local manufacturers and suppliers6. This emphasis on domestic production has been a strategic priority for Ukraine, enabling it to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers and develop a robust indigenous defense industry capable of sustaining its drone warfare capabilities16. The Ukrainian government plans to allocate over $2.6 billion for this extensive procurement initiative, representing a significant portion of its defense budget and underscoring the central role that drones have come to play in Ukraine's military strategy616.

The scale of Ukraine's drone procurement efforts reflects both the proven effectiveness of these systems on the battlefield and the country's determination to maintain technological parity with Russian forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that the country is now capable of manufacturing up to four million drones annually, a dramatic increase from earlier production targets8. This rapid scaling of production capacity has been accompanied by innovations in procurement processes, with the Ministry of Defense introducing a new supply model featuring the DOT-Chain system for drone procurement16. This system, already successfully used in non-lethal acquisitions, is designed to speed up deliveries by allowing military units to select unmanned aerial vehicles based on operational needs, potentially reducing delivery times from months to weeks16. The emphasis on streamlined procurement reflects Ukraine's recognition of the critical importance of maintaining a steady supply of drones to the front lines, where they have become essential tools for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks16.

International assistance continues to play a role in Ukraine's drone arsenal, complementing domestic production efforts with specialized systems from partner nations. France has begun transporting loitering munitions to Ukraine for the first time, with 100 OSKAR (Opportunity Strike Kinetics Aircraft Ruggedised) platforms currently being sent under the French Colibri (Hummingbird) project10. These short-range loitering munitions, made by French drone manufacturer Delair and KNDS France, can fly for up to 45 minutes and are designed to strike fixed targets, light vehicles, and personnel10. The delivery of these systems represents part of broader plans by Paris to acquire 2,000 units of different types overall, highlighting the growing international recognition of the strategic importance of drones in modern conflicts10. Such international cooperation provides Ukraine with access to specialized drone technologies that complement its mass-produced domestic systems, creating a diverse arsenal capable of addressing various operational requirements across the battlefield10.

The intensity of drone warfare in Ukraine has continued unabated into 2025, with recent months witnessing an escalation in drone operations by both Ukrainian and Russian forces. According to Ukrainian officials, Russia launched a fresh wave of drone strikes into Ukraine overnight into Sunday, March 9, 2025, as the country reeled from a bloody weekend of aerial attacks that Kyiv said killed at least 24 people1. Ukraine's air force reported that a total of 119 drones were launched by Russia overnight, with 73 successfully intercepted and 37 lost during their flight without inflicting any damage1. The air force indicated that the regions of Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia experienced the impacts of these strikes1. This escalation in long-range attacks against Ukraine aligns with former U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to suspend all military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which appears to have emboldened Russian forces to intensify their drone campaign1.

Ukrainian forces have responded with their own drone operations, increasingly targeting strategic infrastructure deep within Russian territory. On March 9, 2025, Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked an oil depot in Cheboksary in Russia's Chuvashia Republic, located over 900 kilometers from the Ukrainian border19. According to Russian authorities, air defense units successfully neutralized 88 drones from Ukraine during the night, with 52 intercepted over the Belgorod region, 13 in the Lipetsk region, and nine in the Rostov region, with additional drones shot down across other regions12. Ukrainian sources claimed that the strikes targeted industrial facilities including the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery operated by the state-owned oil giant Rosneft, which has an annual capacity of up to 8.8 million metric tons and plays a "strategic" role in supplying fuel for Russian military operations17. The Russian aviation authority reported that airports in Astrakhan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Kazan were temporarily closed for several hours during the night to maintain air traffic safety, highlighting the disruptive impact of these operations beyond the immediate targets12.

On March 10, 2025, Ukrainian drones again struck an industrial facility in southern Russia's Samara region, with Ukrainian officials claiming the target was another Rosneft oil refinery17. Samara region Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev claimed three drones had been "eliminated" in the city of Novokuibyshevsk with no damages or fires reported, declaring the attack "a failure"17. However, Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry contradicted this assessment, stating that its firefighters were battling a blaze that broke out following the incident, with videos shared by the ministry showing crews battling flames and heavy smoke inside a large warehouse17. These recent operations demonstrate Ukraine's strategy of targeting Russian oil depots and refineries to disrupt fuel supplies to the Russian military, viewing these strikes as retaliation for Moscow's bombardment of Ukrainian cities and its energy infrastructure17. The increasing range and effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes against strategic targets deep within Russian territory represents a significant evolution in their offensive capabilities and indicates that drone warfare will likely remain a central feature of this conflict for the foreseeable future1317.

The drone warfare landscape in Ukraine has become a catalyst for rapid technological innovation, with both sides continually developing new capabilities and countermeasures in an escalating technical arms race. Ukraine has demonstrated particular ingenuity in enhancing drone effectiveness through artificial intelligence, with reports indicating that Ukrainian forces have taken publicly available AI models and retrained them on extensive real-world data from frontline combat14. This approach has dramatically improved targeting accuracy and operational efficiency, with AI-assisted drones able to navigate autonomously for the final approach to targets even when control signals are disrupted by jamming14. While the AI in question relies on humans to select targets, the autonomous final approach capability represents a significant advancement over most drones on both sides of the war, which typically require human control throughout their mission14. This technological leap allows Ukrainian forces to overcome the limitations imposed by tired or inexperienced operators and the increasingly omnipresent frontline radio jamming that can disrupt drone control signals14.

The evolution of drone countermeasures has been equally rapid, with both sides investing heavily in electronic warfare systems and air defense capabilities. Ukraine has reportedly employed pickup trucks equipped with machine guns and military aircraft for more effective drone interception, while also exploring additional alternatives such as FPV interceptor drones and laser systems2. Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi has reported that Ukraine has successfully tested lasers to down fixed-wing drones and expressed hopes to deploy these laser systems in combat, although specific timelines have not been provided2. These developments reflect the ongoing search for cost-effective means of countering the drone threat, as traditional air defense systems often employ munitions that cost significantly more than the drones they target2. The economic asymmetry of drone warfare has forced military planners to reconsider conventional approaches to air defense, with Sukharevskyi noting the challenging arithmetic involved: "What is the expense of a missile designed to intercept a (Russian) Shahed (drone)? And what are the costs associated with deploying a ship, an aircraft, and an air defense system to engage it?"2

The technological evolution extends beyond the drones themselves to encompass the entire ecosystem of unmanned systems, including ground-based vehicles and naval platforms. Sukharevskyi reports that thousands of unmanned ground vehicles are currently operational at the frontlines, reducing the need for soldiers to enter hazardous areas for logistics or combat missions2. Ukraine has also developed sophisticated mothership drones capable of carrying FPV drones up to 70 kilometers before deploying them and functioning as communication relays, extending the operational range and capabilities of smaller attack drones2. On the naval front, Ukraine has used naval drones (both surface and underwater systems) to attack Russia's Black Sea fleet, resulting in the sinking of several ships, and Ukrainian officials have expressed ambitions to create "the world's first fleet of naval drones"8. These developments illustrate how the principles of unmanned warfare pioneered with aerial drones are being applied across multiple domains, creating an increasingly complex and multidimensional battlefield environment where traditional force structures and operational concepts face unprecedented challenges8.

The extensive use of attack drones in Ukraine has fundamentally altered the nature of modern warfare, creating a new paradigm that military forces worldwide are studying intently. The conflict has demonstrated that drones represent far more than just another weapon system; they constitute a transformative capability that changes how wars are fought at tactical, operational, and strategic levels8. The evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine suggests several trends that will likely shape future conflicts, including the shift toward mass production of inexpensive systems, increasing autonomy through artificial intelligence, and the blurring of lines between civilian and military technologies1416. These developments present significant challenges for traditional military forces, with NATO armies reportedly unprepared for the scale and sophistication of drone warfare witnessed in Ukraine, according to Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi2. The lessons from this conflict will likely influence military doctrine, force structure, and procurement priorities for decades to come, as nations seek to incorporate the insights gained from the crucible of combat in Ukraine8.

The economic dimension of drone warfare represents one of its most revolutionary aspects, with relatively inexpensive systems proving capable of neutralizing much costlier platforms and changing the calculus of military expenditure. The ability of sub-$1,000 FPV drones to destroy tanks worth millions exemplifies this asymmetry, challenging conventional notions of military procurement and force development6. This dynamic has accelerated the trend toward mass production of simple but effective systems, as evidenced by Ukraine's plans to acquire 4.5 million FPV drones in 2025616. The emphasis on quantity alongside quality represents a significant shift in military thinking, recognizing that in many scenarios, a swarm of basic drones may prove more effective than a smaller number of sophisticated platforms16. This approach also enhances resilience through redundancy, as the loss of individual drones has minimal impact on overall operational capabilities when they can be rapidly replaced18.

As drone warfare continues to evolve, the integration of artificial intelligence and autonomous capabilities will likely represent the next frontier of development. While Ukrainian officials emphasize that "we're very far from killer robots" and that humans remain in the decision-making loop for targeting, the incremental progress toward greater autonomy appears inevitable as both sides seek advantages in this domain14. The ethical, legal, and strategic implications of this trajectory remain subjects of intense debate, reflecting the profound ways in which drone warfare challenges existing frameworks for understanding and regulating armed conflict14. What is clear from the Ukrainian experience, however, is that drones have permanently altered the character of modern warfare, creating a battlefield environment where visibility is pervasive, traditional force concentration is increasingly hazardous, and the advantages of mass and firepower must be balanced against the vulnerabilities they create to precision drone strikes18. As this conflict continues to unfold, it will undoubtedly yield further insights into the evolving nature of drone warfare and its implications for military operations in the 21st century818.

Citations:

1. https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-reports-264-russian-drone-092255920.html
2. https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-armies-unprepared-drone-wars-ukraine-commander-warns-2025-03-05/
3. http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-OWA-UAVs.html
4. https://cove.army.gov.au/article/gunline-survival-against-loitering-munitions
5. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/10/31/are-the-once-vaunted-bayraktar-drones-losing-their-shine-in-ukraine/
6. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/10/ukraine-announces-plan-to-boost-fpv-drone-arsenal
7. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/09/ukraine-says-russia-attacked-with-over-100-drones-overnight-a88295
8. https://ecfr.eu/article/drones-in-ukraine-four-lessons-for-the-west/
9. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-fedorov-drones-war-russia-1.7465411
10. https://breakingdefense.com/2024/11/france-begins-delivery-of-100-loitering-munitions-to-ukraine/
11. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayraktar_TB2
12. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-downed-88-ukrainian-drones-overnight-2025-03-09/
13. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/DRONES/dwpkeyjwkpm/
14. http://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/trained-on-classified-battlefield-data-ai-multiplies-effectiveness-of-ukraines-drones-report/
15. https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/loitering-munitions-in-ukraine-and-beyond/
16. https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/03/10/ukraine-plans-to-buy-4-5-million-fpv-drones-in-2025-in-massive-2-8-billion-procurement-surge/
17. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/10/ukrainian-drones-strike-industrial-site-in-russias-samara-region-a88298
18. https://warontherocks.com/2024/03/drones-are-transforming-the-battlefield-in-ukraine-but-in-an-evolutionary-fashion/
19. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drone-reportedly-attacks-oil-depot-in-russias-chuvashia-for-first-time/
20. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQIDV0RP1_E
21. https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-future-vision-and-current-capabilities-waging-ai-enabled-autonomous-warfare
22. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-drones-deaths.html
23. https://oe.tradoc.army.mil/2024/06/04/the-evolution-of-uavs-in-the-ukraine-conflict/
24. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoEVWov2lmo
25. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/3/10/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskyy-says-committed-to-us-talks-in-saudi
26. https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-reports-264-russian-drone-attacks-48-hours/story?id=119602742
27. https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-bayraktar-tb2-russia-1839972
28. https://militaryembedded.com/unmanned/payloads/loitering-munitions-for-ukraine-to-be-supplied-by-anduril-uk-under-new-deal
29. https://baykartech.com/en/uav/bayraktar-tb2/
30. https://dronelife.com/2024/11/04/what-kind-of-drones-is-ukraine-buying/
31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loitering_munition
32. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/10/with-turkish-drones-in-the-headlines-what-happened-to-ukraines-bayraktar-tb2s/
33. https://www.warpowerukraine.com/droneforce.php
34. https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/security/ukraine-conflict-ukraine-developing-loitering-munitions-autonomous-uav-technology
35. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/16/the-turkish-drone-that-changed-the-nature-of-warfare
36. https://ruavia.su/since-the-beginning-of-2025-lancet-loitering-munitions-have-eliminated-over-200-pieces-of-ukrainian-armed-forces-uaf-hardware/
37. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7-2025
38. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-sharply-raise-purchases-home-produced-fpv-drones-2025-2025-03-10/