Swedish SAAB Gripen: Canada's Potential Alternative to the F-35 Fighter Jet
Canada is actively reconsidering its C$19 billion (US$13.2 billion) purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets amid escalating tensions with the United States and growing concerns over dependence on American defense technology. While Canada has already paid for the first 16 F-35s scheduled for 2026 delivery, newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney has directed Defence Minister Bill Blair to explore alternatives for the remaining aircraft. The Swedish SAAB JAS-39 Gripen, which finished second in Canada's original fighter jet competition, has emerged as the leading alternative, offering local assembly, technology transfer, lower acquisition and operational costs, and strategic independence from U.S. policies.
Background of Canada's Fighter Jet Procurement Process
Canada has been seeking to replace its aging fleet of CF-18 Hornets, which have been in service since 1982, with modern fighter aircraft capable of meeting contemporary security challenges. After years of deliberation, the Canadian government launched the Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP) to select a suitable replacement1. Initially, five manufacturers were invited to participate in the competition: Lockheed Martin with the F-35, Saab with the Gripen, Boeing with the Super Hornet, Dassault with the Rafale, and Airbus with the Eurofighter Typhoon3.
After a comprehensive evaluation process, Lockheed Martin's F-35 emerged as the winner, with the Swedish Saab JAS-39E Gripen taking second place15. The Canadian government formally signed a contract with the United States on January 9, 2023, to procure 88 F-35A jets for the Royal Canadian Air Force3. This agreement represented the largest investment in RCAF aviation equipment in three decades, with a total value of approximately C$19 billion (US$13.2 billion)38.
The F-35 Contract and Canada's Recent Reconsideration
The F-35 acquisition plan called for the first aircraft deliveries to begin in 2026, with full operational capability expected between 2032 and 20343. Canada has already made payments for the first 16 F-35 jets, which are scheduled for delivery in early 202615. However, recent political developments have prompted a reassessment of this significant defense commitment.
Hours after being sworn into office on March 14, 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney directed Defence Minister Bill Blair to review the F-35 contract8. In a television interview with CBC, Blair confirmed that Canada is "actively looking at potential alternatives to the U.S.-built F-35 stealth fighter and will hold conversations with rival aircraft makers"25. This reconsideration comes amid heightened tensions with the Trump administration over tariffs and what Canadian officials describe as unpredictable U.S. foreign policy25.
Blair suggested that while Canada might accept the first 16 F-35s already paid for, the remainder of the fleet could be composed of aircraft from European suppliers45. This represents a significant shift in Canada's defense procurement strategy, traditionally aligned closely with U.S. defense systems.
The SAAB Gripen: Technical Specifications and Advantages
The Swedish JAS-39 Gripen has emerged as the most likely alternative to the F-35 for Canada's fighter jet program13. The Gripen is a fourth-generation multirole fighter aircraft (with the newer E/F variants classified as 4.5 generation) developed by Swedish aerospace company Saab AB6.
The Gripen offers several technical advantages that make it appealing to Canada:
Technical Capabilities
The Gripen features advanced avionics, including an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, Infrared Search and Track (IRST) system, and sophisticated datalink capabilities6. While it lacks the stealth characteristics of the fifth-generation F-35, the Gripen compensates with superior speed (Mach 2.0 compared to the F-35's Mach 1.6) and greater range (1,800 nautical miles versus 1,500 for the F-35)6. The aircraft is designed for versatility, capable of performing air superiority, air-to-ground, and reconnaissance missions2.
Cost-Effectiveness
One of the Gripen's most compelling advantages is its significantly lower cost structure. The unit price for a Gripen is approximately $60 million, nearly half the $115 million price tag of an F-356. Moreover, the Gripen's operational and maintenance costs are substantially lower than those of the F-35, offering substantial lifecycle savings6. For a defense program projected to reach $70 billion in total lifecycle costs, these savings could be considerable7.
Canadian Industrial Benefits
The Swedish proposal includes provisions for assembly of the aircraft within Canada and a transfer of intellectual property, which would facilitate domestic maintenance operations47. This contrasts with the F-35 program, where significant maintenance, overhaul, and software upgrades must be performed in the United States5. The potential for domestic assembly and maintenance not only creates jobs and technical expertise within Canada but also ensures greater operational independence.
Comparative Analysis: F-35 vs. Gripen
When comparing the F-35 Lightning II and the Saab Gripen, several key differences emerge that have significant implications for Canada's defense strategy:
| Feature | F-35 Lightning II | Saab Gripen |
|---|---|---|
| Generation | Fifth-generation stealth fighter | Fourth-generation (Gripen E: 4.5 gen) |
| Stealth Capability | Advanced stealth design | Limited stealth measures |
| Avionics | Sensor fusion, AESA radar, advanced EW | AESA radar, IRST, advanced datalink |
| Speed | Mach 1.6 | Mach 2.0 |
| Range | 1,500 nautical miles | 1,800 nautical miles |
| Cost | Approx. $115 million per unit | Approx. $60 million per unit |
| Maintenance | High operational costs | Lower operational costs |
| Interoperability | Seamless integration with NATO systems | NATO-compatible, but less integrated |
While the F-35 offers superior stealth capabilities and advanced sensor fusion, the Gripen provides better speed, range, and cost-effectiveness. For Canada's specific defense needs, which include patrolling vast territories and operating in Arctic conditions, the Gripen's performance characteristics may be advantageous.
Moreover, the operational independence offered by the Gripen is increasingly valuable in an era of unpredictable international relations. As noted in the search results, there is "prevailing concern in Europe that an 'unpredictable' US under Donald Trump could pause the delivery of critical parts or software updates for the F-35"6. By choosing a European-made aircraft, Canada could reduce its vulnerability to potential disruptions in the U.S. supply chain.
Other Fighter Jet Alternatives Under Consideration
While the Gripen appears to be the leading alternative, Canada is also considering other non-American fighter jets:
Dassault Rafale
The French Dassault Rafale is a multi-role fighter jet with proven combat performance in various theaters, including the Middle East and Africa2. Its advanced radar and sensor systems make it a highly capable platform for a range of operations. France's military industry has a history of cooperation with Canada, which could facilitate smoother negotiations for potential integration into the Canadian Armed Forces2.
Eurofighter Typhoon
Developed by a European consortium involving the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain, the Eurofighter Typhoon is primarily an air superiority fighter with multirole capabilities2. Its advanced AESA radar, superior maneuverability, and high-speed capabilities make it one of the most formidable air combat platforms globally2. The Typhoon is already in service with several European NATO members, potentially enhancing interoperability.
Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet
While the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet was initially considered, it seems increasingly unlikely that Canada would opt for this American-made aircraft given the current tensions with the United States1. Although transitioning to the Super Hornet from the current CF-18 Hornets could offer operational efficiencies, including shared parts and training systems, political considerations may outweigh these advantages2.
Strategic and Economic Implications
Canada's potential shift away from the F-35 toward the Gripen or other European alternatives carries significant strategic and economic implications:
Strategic Independence
By diversifying its fighter aircraft suppliers, Canada could reduce its dependence on the United States for critical defense capabilities. This aligns with Prime Minister Carney's stated intention to "spend defense dollars in Canada, not the 80% that this government has spent in the United States up until now"8. In the context of uncertain U.S. foreign policy, such independence could provide valuable strategic flexibility.
Economic Benefits
The Swedish proposal for local assembly and maintenance of Gripen fighters would create high-skilled jobs and foster technological innovation within Canada47. This domestic economic benefit contrasts with the F-35 program, where much of the economic value would flow to the United States.
Operational Complexity
However, operating a mixed fleet of fighter jets would introduce operational complexities. The Canadian air force has historically been hesitant to operate different types of fighters simultaneously, though it did so until the 1980s5. Managing two different training regimes, separate infrastructure, and distinct supply chains would increase costs and logistical challenges45.
NATO Interoperability
While the F-35 offers seamless integration with NATO systems, particularly those of the United States, the Gripen and other European fighters are also NATO-compatible6. Canada must balance the benefits of perfect interoperability with the advantages of strategic independence and cost-effectiveness.
Conclusion
Canada's reconsideration of its F-35 fighter jet acquisition and potential pivot toward the Swedish SAAB Gripen represents a significant shift in its defense procurement strategy. Driven by concerns about U.S. policy unpredictability and a desire for greater strategic independence, this shift aligns with broader trends among NATO allies to diversify their defense suppliers.
The Gripen offers compelling advantages in terms of cost-effectiveness, performance characteristics suited to Canada's defense needs, and the opportunity for domestic assembly and maintenance. While challenges remain, particularly regarding the management of a mixed fighter fleet, the strategic and economic benefits may outweigh these operational complexities.
As Defense Minister Blair engages in discussions with alternative suppliers in the coming months, the outcome will significantly impact not only Canada's air defense capabilities but also its strategic positioning within NATO and its relationship with the United States. The decision ultimately reflects a broader question facing many U.S. allies: how to balance traditional security partnerships with the need for strategic autonomy in an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical environment.
Citations:
- https://www.outono.net/elentir/2025/03/15/canada-reconsiders-the-purchase-of-the-f-35-fighter-and-could-opt-for-the-swedish-gripen/
- https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/focus-what-could-be-the-option-for-canada-to-replace-f-35-fighter-jet-acquisition-after-political-tensions-with-us
- https://defence-industry.eu/canada-considers-alternatives-to-lockheed-martin-f-35-lightning-ii-ii-fighter-jet/
- https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/canada-reconsidering-multibillion-dollar-defense-deal-with-the-us-b2715791.html
- https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/f35-blair-trump-1.7484477
- https://www.eurasiantimes.com/shot-down-by-f-35-jas-39-gripen-back-in/
- https://apnews.com/article/f35-canada-trump-0d3bf192d3490d87570d48475ff2c3a6
- https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/carney-reviews-canadas-order-of-f-35-jets-amid-rift-with-us
- https://www.reddit.com/r/AusPol/comments/1jc9df2/canada_is_cancelling_part_of_its_order_for_f35/
- https://theaviationist.com/2025/03/15/canada-reconsidering-f-35/
- https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/1jbhdsf/canada_reconsidering_f35_purchase_amid_tensions/
- https://en.defence-ua.com/news/canada_considers_cancelling_f_35_deal_at_16_aircraft_pivot_toward_gripen-13856.html
- https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/tariff-fight-raises-questions-about-canadas-f-35-p-8-purchases/
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