Alberta's Subsoil Moisture Conditions: A Comprehensive Analysis as of February 2025

The current state of subsoil moisture across Alberta presents a complex and regionally varied picture that has significant implications for agricultural productivity, water resource management, and ecological health throughout the province. Following several years of persistent drought conditions, Alberta has experienced notable improvements in some regions while continuing to face moisture deficits in others. This analysis examines the current subsoil moisture situation across Alberta as of February 2025, exploring regional variations, historical context, and potential implications for the upcoming growing season.

As of February 2025, Alberta's subsoil moisture conditions display significant improvement compared to the severe drought conditions that dominated much of 2023 and early 2024. According to data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the overall drought situation has substantially improved, with drought-affected agricultural regions decreasing from approximately 98 percent in early 2024 to about 35 percent in late 2024 and early 20251. This reduction represents a significant positive development for Alberta's agricultural sector heading into the 2025 growing season.

However, the improvement has not been uniform across the province. While surface soil moisture conditions have seen substantial recovery in many areas, subsurface moisture remains a concern. As recently as June 2024, subsurface soil moisture across Alberta was rated at only 29 percent good to excellent, indicating that deeper soil layers were still experiencing significant moisture deficits despite improvements in surface conditions12. These subsurface deficits are particularly problematic as they represent the moisture reserves that crops rely on during dry periods throughout the growing season.

Current soil moisture monitoring indicates that areas extending roughly from Calgary to Lloydminster and to the southeast corner of Alberta are showing relatively favorable soil moisture conditions11. These regions have benefited from timely precipitation events during the fall of 2024 and early winter months, allowing for a gradual replenishment of soil moisture profiles. However, this recovery has not extended to all agricultural regions within the province, creating a patchwork of moisture conditions that farmers must navigate as they plan for the 2025 growing season.

Alberta's diverse geography creates significant regional variations in soil moisture conditions, with some areas experiencing much more severe deficits than others. As of February 2025, several distinct regional patterns have emerged in subsoil moisture distribution throughout the province.

The southwestern region of Alberta continues to face particularly challenging conditions. Despite overall improvements elsewhere, the southwestern foothills near Pincher Creek have received below-average precipitation and remain in drought conditions2. This area has seen little snow accumulation during the winter of 2024-2025, with what little snow that did fall having largely disappeared by early 2025. The region will be heavily dependent on spring rainfall to replenish soil moisture for the 2025 planting season2.

Central Alberta has also experienced persistent moisture deficits. A large strip of land extending from Edson to the US border remains abnormally dry, with the areas west of Red Deer being particularly affected. These regions have received less than 50 percent of average precipitation during the final three months of 20242. This continuing deficit poses challenges for agricultural planning in the central region, which has faced consistent drought conditions throughout 2024.

In contrast, southeastern Alberta has fared relatively better in recent months. The region has received above-normal precipitation during the winter of 2024-2025, helping to improve moisture conditions in this traditionally drier part of the province8. This precipitation, while beneficial for surface soil moisture, will take time to fully replenish subsoil reserves that have been depleted by multiple years of below-average rainfall.

The current subsoil moisture conditions in Alberta must be understood within the context of the severe drought that affected the province in recent years. Between 2020 and 2023, large areas of Alberta experienced extraordinarily dry conditions, with regions from Calgary to Red Deer and up to Whitecourt suffering what experts characterized as once-in-50-year lows for moisture over this four-year period11. Similar extreme conditions affected the northeast and Peace Region during this time frame.

The cumulative moisture deficit has been substantial. Red Deer lost approximately 400 millimeters of moisture during this period, while the southeast and southwest corners experienced even greater losses of 500 to 600 millimeters11. Such significant deficits require multiple seasons of above-average precipitation to fully recover, particularly for deep soil moisture reserves.

The last notably wet year that effectively replenished Alberta's surface water supplies was 201611. This extended period without a significantly wet year has gradually depleted groundwater resources, soil moisture, and surface water storage throughout much of the province. This long-term deficit helps explain why, despite recent improvements, subsurface moisture levels remain concerning in many regions.

Early 2024 sparked significant concern when winter snow disappeared early, raising alarms about potential drought conditions for the growing season. However, May 2024 brought substantial rainfall to many areas, temporarily alleviating immediate concerns11. This pattern of variability—severe deficits followed by periods of relief—characterizes Alberta's recent moisture history and highlights the vulnerability of the system to future dry periods.

As of February 2025, snowpack conditions across Alberta's eastern slopes are below historical norms, contributing to concerns about water supply for the upcoming growing season. The Alberta government's February snowpack surveys revealed conditions that were below average or much below average for this time of year at most monitoring locations8. This deficit in mountain snowpack is particularly concerning because snowmelt from the eastern slopes provides a critical source of water for many of Alberta's major river systems.

The February water supply outlook, which provides a long-term river volume forecast for March through September 2025, indicates that anticipated river volumes will be slightly below those observed in 20248. More specifically, forecasts vary by basin:

The Milk River basin forecasts for March-to-September are much below average, suggesting potential challenges for water users in this region. Similarly, the Oldman River basin forecasts range from below average to much below average, as do those for the Bow River basin. The Red Deer River basin forecasts are uniformly much below average, while the North Saskatchewan River basin forecasts range from below average to much below average8.

These below-average forecasts suggest that water availability could become a concern during the 2025 growing season, particularly if spring and summer precipitation fails to materialize. The cumulative effect of multiple years of below-average snowpack and precipitation has reduced the resilience of Alberta's water systems, making them more vulnerable to short-term dry periods.

The current subsoil moisture conditions have significant implications for Alberta's agricultural sector and water management strategies as the province moves through 2025. Farmers and water managers face both challenges and opportunities based on the current soil moisture situation.

For Alberta's agricultural producers, low subsoil moisture entering the 2025 growing season creates potential risks for crop establishment and development. Concerns about germination, crop emergence, and uniformity have been raised by agricultural experts, particularly in areas where moisture deficits remain severe11. Heat and drought stress during grain filling—as experienced in 2024—can lead to thin kernels in cereal crops and significant yield reductions. This is particularly concerning for areas west of Red Deer, where soil moisture conditions remain poor.

Water management authorities have already begun implementing precautionary measures. As of February 20, 2025, there are 33 water shortage advisories in place for select water management areas across Alberta8. These advisories reflect ongoing concern about water availability despite some improvement in overall drought conditions. The Alberta government continues to monitor snowpack, precipitation, river levels, and other key indicators to ensure appropriate management of water resources.

Reservoir levels have shown improvement compared to their critically low states in early 2024, with many reservoirs now at or close to winter storage levels8. This has allowed drought stage levels for several river basins to be lowered to stage 1 (out of 5), with only the Milk River basin remaining at stage 2 and the Beaver River basin improving to stage 0 (no current drought conditions)8. While this represents a positive development, water managers remain cautious about the outlook for 2025 given the below-average snowpack and historical moisture deficits.

Alberta's current drought situation represents a marked improvement from the peak of drought conditions in 2023-2024. Most river basins have been downgraded to stage 1 drought status as of February 2025, indicating that while conditions remain drier than normal, they no longer represent a severe threat to water availability8. This improvement follows the stabilization of river flows and reservoir levels that approached normal winter storage levels by late 2024.

However, the improving drought situation does not mean all concerns have been resolved. The continued presence of 33 water shortage advisories across the province indicates ongoing localized water availability challenges8. These advisories serve as an important monitoring and management tool to help water users prepare for potential shortages during the upcoming growing season.

Transboundary water agreements also introduce an additional layer of complexity to Alberta's water management situation. Alberta is obligated to share water with its neighboring provinces through several agreements, including the Master Agreement on Apportionment, which governs water sharing between Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba7. Under this agreement, Alberta must pass a specified proportion of natural flow to Saskatchewan, with the actual proportion varying by water body and drought conditions.

During previous drought periods, such as in 2001, Alberta delivered 56 percent of the natural flow to Saskatchewan7. As drought conditions potentially return or persist in certain regions during 2025, these transboundary obligations may create additional pressure on Alberta's water management strategies, particularly for eastern-flowing rivers that are subject to apportionment monitoring.

In response to the ongoing challenges with subsoil moisture, Alberta's agricultural community has increasingly adopted various adaptation strategies and moisture conservation techniques. These approaches aim to maximize the efficiency of available water and build resilience against drought conditions.

Conservation tillage practices, particularly zero-till systems, have shown remarkable success across the prairies. These approaches minimize soil disturbance, maintaining valuable organic matter and reducing moisture loss through evaporation. Many Alberta farmers report water savings of up to 30 percent using these methods13. Similar benefits come from stubble retention, where crop residue is left on fields after harvest, creating a protective layer that reduces evaporation and improves soil structure.

Cover crops during shoulder seasons help protect soil moisture while adding organic matter. Quick-growing species like fall rye or winter wheat are particularly effective in Alberta's climate13. Strategic windbreak placement using native species also helps reduce wind exposure and evaporation rates across fields.

Soil amendments like composted manure improve soil structure and water-holding capacity. Local success stories demonstrate that fields treated with organic matter can retain moisture up to 40 percent longer than untreated areas13. More sophisticated approaches include timing irrigation properly and using soil moisture monitoring equipment to optimize water use efficiency.

The Alberta government has also implemented support programs to help farmers adapt to changing moisture conditions. These include a drought and flood grant program that allocates $125 million over five years and various water sharing agreements that help manage water resources during times of scarcity1. These initiatives aim to increase the resilience of Alberta's agricultural sector to both short-term and long-term changes in water availability.

As Alberta moves through the first quarter of 2025, the subsoil moisture situation presents a mixed picture that will continue to evolve as spring approaches. Overall drought conditions have shown significant improvement compared to 2023-2024, with drought-affected agricultural regions decreasing from 98 percent to approximately 35 percent1. However, subsurface moisture deficits persist in many areas, particularly in central and southwestern regions of the province.

The below-average snowpack recorded in February 2025 raises concerns about water supply for the upcoming growing season, with forecasts for major river basins ranging from below average to much below average8. These conditions suggest that while the situation has improved, Alberta has not fully recovered from the multi-year drought that affected the province between 2020 and 2024.

Looking ahead, spring precipitation will play a critical role in determining agricultural outcomes for 2025. As noted by agricultural experts, "You can't typically expect to make up a big moisture deficit over the winter, but even an average snowpack would get everyone off to a good start for spring"11. The variability of Alberta's weather patterns means that timely spring rainfall could still substantially improve the outlook for the 2025 growing season.

For Alberta's farmers, water managers, and policymakers, the current subsoil moisture situation underscores the importance of continuing to invest in drought resilience and adaptive management strategies. While conditions have improved from the severe drought of recent years, the persistence of subsurface moisture deficits highlights the long-term nature of drought recovery and the ongoing need for careful stewardship of Alberta's water resources as the province moves through 2025.

Citations:

1. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-drought-trevor-hadwen-rebecca-schulz-aer-1.7418204
2. https://www.ruralrootscanada.com/2024-alberta-weather-year-in-review/
3. https://elc.ab.ca/drought-watch-2024-wetlands-drought-management-in-alberta/
4. https://www.topcropmanager.com/alberta-ag-moisture-update/
5. https://www.futureag.ca/post/facing-water-scarcity-and-climate-challenges-heading-into-2025-with-your-alberta-ag-dealer
6. https://www.aer.ca/about-aer/media-centre/announcements/announcement-february-20-2025
7. https://waterportal.ca/alberta-s-transboundary-water-agreements/
8. https://www.alberta.ca/drought-current-conditions
9. https://lethbridgenewsnow.com/2021/05/13/below-average-moisture-conditions-continue-for-alberta-agricultural-regions/
10. https://www.alberta.ca/alberta-soil-information-viewer
11. https://grainswest.com/2025/01/soil-situation-varies/
12. https://farmnewsnow.com/2024/07/02/alberta-crop-report-for-last-week-of-june/
13. https://organicagcentre.ca/uncategorized/why-albertas-dry-climate-farms-are-thriving-despite-the-drought-2/
14. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor/current-drought-conditions
15. https://www.albertagrains.com/the-growing-point/articles-library/do-recent-snow-events-help-replenish-soil-moisture?back=1094
16. https://medicinehatnews.com/news/local-news/2024/11/27/soil-moisture-in-decent-shape-especially-after-dry-years/
17. https://rivers.alberta.ca/Contents/WaterSupply/2025/1/
18. https://chamber.southeastalbertachamber.ca/agriculture/Details/building-a-unified-voice-for-agriculture-agriculture-updates-supports-and-news-february-2025-250892
19. https://www.aer.ca/about-aer/media-centre/bulletins/bulletin-2025-04
20. https://www.thealbertan.com/beyond-local/researcher-finds-proof-the-seeding-soil-temperature-sweet-spot-is-2-degrees-10187835
21. https://www.abmunis.ca/news/abmunis-2024-water-plan
22. https://open.alberta.ca/publications/moisture-situation-update
23. https://organicagcentre.ca/soil-health-and-carbon-management/regional-soil-management/albertas-forest-future-smart-silviculture-strategies-that-beat-climate-change/
24. https://www.country-guide.ca/daily/alberta-crop-report-much-needed-moisture-replenishes-province/
25. https://www.syngenta.ca/market-news/maps--may-brings-more-rain-to-prairies--better-soil-moisture
26. https://www.producer.com/markets/prairie-soil-moisture-conditions-not-a-concern/
27. https://medicinehatnews.com/news/local-news/2025/02/11/better-than-normal-snow-helping-to-ease-soil-moisture-concerns/