Venezuela: Economy and Population Overview
Population
Venezuela currently has a population of approximately 28.5 to 31.8 million people, depending on the source and year. The country ranks 53rd globally in population size, representing approximately 0.36% of the global population. The population is relatively young, with a median age of approximately 29–30 years and a fairly balanced gender distribution (approximately 50% male, 50% female).[1][2][3][4]
Demographic Trends
The population has experienced significant volatility over the past decade, heavily influenced by mass emigration. Between 2012 and 2025, approximately 7.8 to 8 million Venezuelans—roughly 25% of the population—emigrated, primarily due to the humanitarian and economic crisis. Net migration has consistently been negative, with annual emigration ranging from 48,000 to 525,000 people. Despite emigration, the population has remained relatively stable since 2020 due to modest birth rates offsetting losses from out-migration.[5][3][6][1]
The population is projected to recover and grow modestly to approximately 35.5 million by 2030, assuming economic stabilization and reduced emigration.[7][3]
Venezuela: Population Trends and Projections (2020-2026)
Economic Overview
Venezuela's economy in 2025-2026 presents a complex picture of competing narratives—official government reports claim sustained growth, while independent analysts and international institutions highlight structural fragility driven by inflation, capital flight, and structural dependence on oil.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Venezuela's nominal GDP in 2025 is estimated at $108.51 billion USD, representing a slight contraction from prior year estimates. By historical comparison, this masks a catastrophic collapse: GDP has contracted by approximately 80% since its 2012 peak of roughly $450 billion USD. The per capita GDP stands at approximately $4,122 USD, placing Venezuela among the poorest countries in Latin America.[5][6][8]
Recent growth claims: Venezuelan government sources claim the economy grew 8.5-8.7% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with 17 consecutive quarters of expansion. However, these official figures are widely disputed by independent economists. The government's growth claims are driven primarily by an 16.1% surge in oil activity, while non-oil sectors grew only 6.1%.[9][10]
International skepticism: The IMF projects more conservative 3-4% growth for 2024-2025, contingent on oil production recovery. Independent analysts note that official statistics have been unreliable since 2014, with documented manipulation of inflation figures and delayed reporting.[6][5]
Venezuela: Economic Indicators Comparison (2023 vs 2025)
Inflation and Currency
Inflation represents Venezuela's most acute macroeconomic challenge. The country experienced hyperinflation from 2014 to 2024, with prices doubling every 28 days at peak episodes in 2018. Current inflation metrics vary dramatically by source:[6]
- Official government estimates (2025): 71.7% year-over-year[5]
- Independent analyst projections: Forecasts exceed 150-190% for late 2025, with some projections reaching 250%[11][12]
- Historical context: Inflation peaked at over 300,000% annualized during 2018-2019[11]
The sharp divergence between official and independent estimates reflects the loss of confidence in government statistics. Since April 2025, monthly inflation has tracked at 172% year-over-year, suggesting the government's official annual figure significantly underestimates real price increases.[11]
Employment and Unemployment
The official unemployment rate stands at 5.5% (2023 data), which international observers consider artificially low and likely understates underemployment. This figure reflects definitional issues—many unemployed Venezuelans have exited the formal labor force or migrated. More meaningful metrics include:[13][5]
- Labor force loss: Venezuela has lost approximately 3.85 million jobs since 2013, representing roughly 40% of the workforce that existed at the beginning of Maduro's tenure.[6]
- Wage erosion: Real wages have collapsed, with minimum wages worth only approximately $20-30 USD monthly at black market exchange rates, down from historical levels.[6]
- Informality: The vast majority of employment has shifted to informal, subsistence-level activities.[6]
Poverty and Living Standards
Poverty remains the defining feature of Venezuelan society:
- Official poverty rate (2023): 51.9% live below the national poverty line[5]
- Extreme poverty: Estimates from 2024 suggest approximately 82% of Venezuelans live in poverty, with 53% in extreme poverty, unable to afford basic food needs.[6]
- Inequality: The wealth gap has widened dramatically, with the top 10% earning 70+ times the income of the bottom 10%.[6]
The humanitarian crisis manifests in widespread food shortages, non-functional healthcare systems, electricity rationing, and water scarcity. A UN special rapporteur documented in February 2024 that most Venezuelans live on "just a few dollars a month," with health and education systems in "total disrepair."[6]
Economic Structure and Sectoral Composition
Venezuela's economy remains fundamentally distorted by oil dependence and the legacy of Chavista economic policies:
The oil industry represents approximately 12.3% of recorded GDP, yet dominates the economy's dynamics because petroleum accounts for roughly 95% of export earnings. Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves (302.81 billion barrels), but production has collapsed due to:[10][6]
- Mismanagement: The state oil company PDVSA was purged of technical expertise and replaced with political appointees beginning in 1999.[6]
- Underinvestment: Decades of inadequate capital investment and maintenance have degraded refining infrastructure.[6]
- Sanctions: U.S. and international sanctions on Venezuelan oil since 2017 have constrained export markets and financing.[6]
- Current production: Output has fallen from 3.5 million barrels per day (1998) to approximately 2.3 million barrels per day, with some estimates suggesting further decline.[10][6]
Services Sector
The services sector accounts for approximately 60% of GDP, including finance, insurance, real estate, telecommunications, transport, warehousing, and trade. However, this sector is characterized by:[10]
- Dollarization: Since 2016, many service transactions have shifted to USD, reflecting loss of confidence in the bolívar.[6]
- Decline in quantity: Businesses have shuttered at accelerating rates. Venezuela had 13,000 companies in 1999; by 2016, fewer than 4,000 remained operational.[6]
Manufacturing
Manufacturing contributes approximately 16% of GDP. However, the sector has undergone severe contraction:[10]
- Automotive collapse: General Motors Venezuela ceased all production in 2014 after 65 years of operations. By 2016, Venezuelan automotive manufacturing dropped to only 10 vehicles per day—a 86% collapse from prior levels.[6]
- Industrial production: Manufacturing output declined approximately 2% in 2017 and has stagnated since.[6]
- Key products: The sector manufactures steel, aluminum, cement, textiles, and beverages, but almost entirely for domestic consumption and at reduced capacity.[6]
Agriculture
Agriculture accounts for approximately 3-4.7% of GDP and 7-10% of the labor force. The sector faces acute challenges:[10][6]
- Food import dependence: Venezuela imports approximately two-thirds of its food needs, making the country highly vulnerable to currency devaluation and foreign exchange scarcity.[10][6]
- Production declines: Major agricultural output has collapsed—sugar cane production fell from 7.3 million tons (2012) to 3.6 million tons (2016); corn dropped from 2.3 million tons (2014) to 1.2 million (2017).[6]
- Limited agricultural self-sufficiency: The government claims 100% coffee self-sufficiency, but the agricultural sector overall cannot meet domestic demand for other staples.[9]
Trade and External Relations
Venezuela's trade position reflects its commodity dependence and international isolation:
- Trade deficit trajectory: Imports totaled $9.1 billion USD in 2017, while exports reached $27.8 billion USD (primarily petroleum). However, sanctions and capital controls have severely constrained both.[6]
- Primary trading partners: The United States historically absorbed 42% of exports (2017) and supplied 38% of imports, though sanctions have disrupted these flows. China represents 23% of exports and 18% of imports, and has extended billions in financing in exchange for oil shipments.[6]
- Foreign investment collapse: Foreign direct investment has virtually ceased, falling from routine bilateral flows to $0.7 billion USD in 2023.[5]
- Remittances: Diaspora remittances provide a lifeline, totaling $2.5 billion USD in 2023, helping sustain families left behind.[5]
Fiscal and Monetary Crisis
Venezuela's fiscal and monetary systems remain dysfunctional:
- Fiscal deficit: The government deficit stood at -12.6% of GDP in 2024, reflecting unsustainable spending without tax revenue.[5]
- Debt default: Venezuela defaulted on sovereign debt in 2017 and remains in selective default on approximately $36 billion USD of international bonds.[6]
- Currency instability: The bolívar has undergone multiple devaluations and currency reforms (including the 2008 redenomination and subsequent reforms). The unofficial/black market exchange rate diverges dramatically from official rates, reflecting currency worthlessness.[6]
- Monetary financing: The government has resorted to money printing to finance spending, directly fueling hyperinflation.[11][12]
Economic Outlook
The outlook for Venezuela's economy remains highly uncertain and contingent on three variables: (1) global oil prices, (2) political stability and governance reform, and (3) access to international capital markets.
Baseline scenarios project: Inflation will remain elevated (150%+ annualized), GDP growth will remain modest (3-4% at best), and poverty will persist above 50% unless fundamental structural reforms occur. The January 3, 2026 U.S. military intervention and capture of President Maduro introduces unprecedented uncertainty regarding the trajectory of these baseline projections.[5][11][12]
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- https://www.populationpyramids.org/venezuela
- https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/venezuela-population/
- https://countrymeters.info/en/Venezuela
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- https://www.statista.com/statistics/370937/gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-venezuela/
- https://en.mercopress.com/2025/07/18/venezuela-records-gdp-growth-above-6-in-2q-of-2025
- https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/gdp-growth-annual
- https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/inflation-cpi
- https://www.seco.admin.ch/dam/seco/en/dokumente/Aussenwirtschaft/Wirtschaftsbeziehungen/Länderinformationen/Lateinamerika/wirtschaftsbericht_venezuela.pdf.download.pdf/Wirtschaftsbericht _Venezuela_2025 extern.pdf
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/28/venezuela-explained-in-10-maps-and-charts
- https://www.worldeconomics.com/GDP/Venezuela.aspx
- https://www.alm.com/press_release/alm-intelligence-updates-verdictsearch/?s-news-17863855-2025-12-05-venezuela-reports-over-85-percent-gdp-growth-in-2025-signaling-economic-recovery
- https://www.alm.com/press_release/alm-intelligence-updates-verdictsearch/?s-news-23012939-2025-12-20-venezuela-experiences-record-high-employment-and-economic-growth-december-2025
- https://www.populationof.net/venezuela/
- https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/VEN
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Venezuela
- https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/
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