Rapid year to year changes

Rapid year-to-year changes in climate are well-documented and can be driven by both natural variability and human-induced climate change. The most prominent source of such rapid, global-scale fluctuations is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between El Niño (warm phase) and La Niña (cool phase) every two to seven years, each phase typically lasting about a year or two123. These oscillations can cause dramatic shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns worldwide, leading to events such as floods, droughts, and ecosystem disruptions1243.

Other mechanisms for rapid year-to-year climate changes include:

• Volcanic eruptions, which can inject large amounts of aerosols into the atmosphere, temporarily cooling the planet for a year or more56.

• Short-term solar activity cycles, which can slightly alter global temperatures and weather patterns6.

• Atmospheric teleconnections (such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation), which can create abrupt shifts in regional climate on annual to decadal timescales47.

Recent observations show that the past two years (2023–2024) experienced the fastest temperature rise ever recorded, largely attributed to a combination of a strong El Niño event and potentially new, poorly understood climate feedbacks. This rapid warming exceeded what would be expected from greenhouse gas increases alone, raising concerns that the climate system may be entering a period of even greater instability8.

Key points about rapid year-to-year climate changes:

• ENSO is the leading cause of global year-to-year climate variability, affecting rainfall, temperature, and even ecosystem health123.

• Volcanic eruptions and solar cycles can cause abrupt, short-lived changes in global climate56.

• Human-driven climate change is intensifying the frequency and magnitude of these rapid changes, making recent years the hottest and most variable on record910118.

These rapid shifts can have profound impacts on agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and human societies, underscoring the importance of monitoring and understanding both natural variability and anthropogenic effects on the climate system9108.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation
2. https://wmo.int/topics/el-nino-la-nina
3. https://climatedata.ca/get-climate-smart-el-nino/
4. https://k12.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Science_and_Technology/Earth_Science/12:_Climate/12.15:_Short-Term_Climate_Change
5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change
6. https://www.emission-index.com/climate-change/short-term-climate-change
7. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/40/12/1520-0469_1983_040_2735_stcvaa_2_0_co_2.xml
8. https://www.science.org/content/article/over-past-2-years-earth-got-hotter-faster-ever
9. https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/
10. https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/evidence/
11. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/08/130801142420.htm
12. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature
13. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures
14. https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discovering-geology/climate-change/what-causes-the-earths-climate-to-change/
15. https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/earth-science/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in-earths-climate/
16. https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/rate-and-impact-of-climate-change-surges-dramatically-2011-2020
17. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change
18. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
19. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/past_events.html
20. https://history.aip.org/climate/rapid.htm