Alberta West News: Saskatchewan Drought Situation

As of April 2025, Saskatchewan is facing significant drought risks across much of the province, with conditions varying by region due to persistent dry weather, below-normal precipitation, and long-term moisture deficits. The situation is particularly concerning as the province heads into the growing season, with potential impacts on agriculture, water supplies, and ecosystems.

Current Drought Conditions

Drought conditions in Saskatchewan worsened in March 2025, driven by dry and, in many areas, warmer weather. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) expanded across the province, with moderate drought (D1) persisting along the Saskatchewan-US border due to long-term moisture deficits. Over the past year, the southeastern corner of the province received 80 to 140 mm less precipitation than normal, and despite a late-March storm, recent precipitation has done little to alleviate these deficits. Northern Saskatchewan also saw an expansion of abnormally dry conditions, with a pocket of moderate drought emerging due to both short-term and ongoing long-term moisture deficits12.

The Saskatchewan Water Security Agency (WSA) reported in December 2024 that most areas of the province face a moderate to high drought risk for 2025. South-central regions, including Assiniboia and Coronach, are at an extreme drought risk, while a broader high-risk area covers southern Saskatchewan, including Val Marie, Swift Current, Regina, Weyburn, and Estevan. Moderate risk extends to most other parts of the province, with only the west-central region-south of North Battleford to Kindersley, Rosetown, and west to the Alberta border-classified as low risk67.

Precipitation and Runoff Outlook

Fall 2024 was generally drier than normal across Saskatchewan, with below-average precipitation leading to dry soil moisture conditions at freeze-up, particularly in central, northern, and southeastern regions. While parts of the southwest and northeast saw near-normal soil moisture due to early September rainfall, the northwest and south-central grain belt remain the driest. Two mid-November snowstorms brought 10 to 80 cm of snow, with east-central areas receiving the most, but it remains unclear whether this moisture will infiltrate the soil or run off in spring57.

The WSA's preliminary runoff outlook for 2025, issued in March, projects below-normal runoff across most of northern and parts of southeastern Saskatchewan due to dry fall conditions and below-normal snowpack. In contrast, southern and central areas, including Regina and Swift Current, are expected to see above-normal runoff potential due to an above-normal snowpack and wetter fall conditions in some spots. Snowmelt has already begun in the southwest, including the Maple Creek area and lower Frenchman River Basin, but a rapid melt or additional precipitation is needed to replenish surface water supplies in many regions5.

Water Supply and Reservoir Levels

Despite the dry conditions, most major water supply reservoirs in southern Saskatchewan, including Lake Diefenbaker, are at or near normal operating levels for this time of year. Lake Diefenbaker, which supplies 60% of the province’s water demand, is 0.7 meters higher than average as of March 2025. The WSA is taking a conservative approach by drawing down the lake to an elevation of 551.5 meters ahead of spring runoff to stabilize supplies, especially in anticipation of potentially below-normal alpine runoff. Spring runoff forecasts will be refined after analyzing February snowpack survey data from over 100 locations across the province36.

Impacts on Agriculture and Communities

The prolonged dry conditions have raised concerns for Saskatchewan’s agricultural sector, particularly in the south, where producers have faced low or empty dugouts due to insufficient spring runoff. The Farm and Ranch Water Infrastructure Program (FRWIP) is supporting farmers by funding projects to develop secure water sources, such as wells and waterline systems, for livestock and crop spraying. Rural municipalities are also applying on behalf of ratepayers to decommission abandoned wells, protecting groundwater resources shared by thousands4.

The dry fall and winter conditions increase the risk of surface water supply issues if winter snowfall remains below average. Areas with high or extreme drought risk may face water shortages in 2025, even with a normal snowpack, threatening both economic activities like farming and ecological systems7.

Long-Term Outlook and Government Response

Current long-range forecasts suggest near-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures through the winter months over much of Saskatchewan. However, the WSA and other authorities remain cautious, focusing on retaining water supplies to ensure safe, reliable drinking water for communities and other users. The agency’s overwinter operating plan for Lake Diefenbaker prioritizes conservation, and further actions will depend on updated runoff forecasts37.

In summary, Saskatchewan is at a critical juncture with widespread drought risk heading into 2025. While some regions may benefit from above-normal runoff and near-normal reservoir levels, persistent moisture deficits and dry conditions in key agricultural areas pose significant challenges. Ongoing monitoring and conservation efforts by the WSA, alongside support programs for producers, aim to mitigate the impacts, but much depends on winter snowfall and spring melt dynamics.

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Friday, May 9, 2025

Saskatchewan Drought Situation