Combined effects of more heat, less precipitation and other climate factors on Canadian Prairies

The Canadian Prairies face profound and interconnected climate challenges due to rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. These factors collectively threaten water security, agriculture, ecosystems, and communities, with cascading socio-economic consequences. Below is an analysis of their combined impacts:

• from higher temperatures exacerbates soil moisture deficits, particularly in summer, even if precipitation remains stable15.

• and earlier spring melts diminish critical water storage, leading to lower summer streamflow in rivers like the Saskatchewan-Nelson system35.

• intensifies as agricultural demand rises, straining allocation systems15.

• accelerates, with semi-permanent wetlands transitioning to vegetated areas, threatening waterfowl habitats and biodiversity15.

• (due to frost-free days and higher Growing Degree Days) initially benefit crops like wheat and canola25, but heat stress and drought frequency offset gains, reducing yields by up to 15% in some regions15.

• (e.g., insects, crop pathogens) increases with warmer winters and extended warm periods15.

• , particularly in southern Alberta, where glacial meltwater declines threaten long-term supply35.

• is projected due to moisture stress, fire, and insect outbreaks, with tree mortality observed during past droughts13.

• face invasive species encroachment and soil nutrient changes, further altering plant communities15.

• , especially for species reliant on wetlands or cold-adapted ecosystems15.

• are projected to triple or quadruple in frequency, increasing human health risks and energy demands45.

• (despite drier summers) raise flash flood risks, damaging infrastructure and causing soil erosion34.

• , driven by drier vegetation, more lightning strikes, and human activity in backcountry areas5.

• The 1999–2005 drought caused $3 billion in agricultural losses in Alberta and Saskatchewan alone, highlighting vulnerabilities5.

• emerge between agriculture, municipalities, and industries, necessitating policy reforms15.

• face disruptions to traditional livelihoods as wildlife migration patterns and ice-road reliability change5.

• : Warming rates exceed global averages, with winters heating faster than summers24.

• : Summer decreases in the south contrast with wetter winters, creating "feast-or-famine" water cycles35.

• : Concurrent floods and droughts in different regions strain adaptation capacities5.

In summary, the Prairies’ climate future involves navigating trade-offs between agricultural opportunities and escalating risks. Adaptive strategies-such as drought-resistant crops, sustainable water management, and wildfire mitigation-will determine resilience in this rapidly changing region.

Citations:

1. https://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/En56-119-1-1997-1E.pdf
2. https://canadianagronomist.ca/climate-change-trends-on-the-prairies/
3. https://chrisann.ca/docs/Sauchyn_etal_2008_Summary_Climate_Change_Impacts_on_Canadas-Prairie-Provinces.pdf
4. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/Climate-change/pdf/CCCR-Chapter4-TemperatureAndPrecipitationAcrossCanada.pdf
5. https://climatewest.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Snapshot-Changing_Prairie-Climate-2022.pdf
6. https://www.navcanada.ca/en/lawm-prairies-en.pdf
7. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/what-will-climate-change-actually-look-like-on-the-prairies-1.6325834
8. https://learnnetwork.ualberta.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/70/2018/07/PR_01_2014_Ayouqi-Vercammen.pdf
9. https://www.davey.com/media/mcrh0woz/ca-prarie-provinces-projections-623.pdf
10. https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/full/10.1139/cjps-2022-0215?af=R
11. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/12/10/1520-0442_1999_012_2996_ptotcp_2.0.co_2.pdf
12. https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/

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