Alberta West News: Too many degrees and not enough trades people in North America

Across North America, a significant imbalance exists between the number of individuals pursuing university degrees and the availability of skilled tradespeople, leading to a critical shortage in essential industries like construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure development. This issue, driven by societal trends and systemic factors, is creating economic challenges and hindering growth in both the United States and Canada.

Societal Push for University Degrees

For decades, North American culture has heavily emphasized the pursuit of four-year university degrees as the primary path to success. In the U.S., the number of full-time college students increased from 2.4 million in 1961 to 11.6 million in 2020, reflecting a strong societal focus on higher education11. High school graduates are often asked, “Where are you going to college?” rather than “What are you going to do?” which reinforces the notion that a degree is the ultimate goal3. This trend has led to a decline in interest in vocational training, with only 8% of U.S. undergraduates enrolled in certificate programs, which are typically geared toward trades10. Similarly, in Canada, while the country leads the G7 in college and university graduates, the number of working-age individuals holding apprenticeship certificates in critical fields like construction has stagnated or fallen7.

This cultural bias is compounded by misconceptions about the trades. Many younger generations perceive these careers as involving grueling labor, long hours, and a lack of benefits, despite evidence to the contrary—many tradespeople have access to paid vacation, workers’ compensation, and retirement plans11. Additionally, there’s a stigma that skilled laborers are less intelligent than degree holders, further deterring entry into these fields11.

Declining Interest and Aging Workforce

The lack of new entrants into the trades is starkly contrasted by an aging workforce nearing retirement. In the U.S., over 20% of construction workers are older than 55, with an average retirement age of 6111. For every five Baby Boomers retiring from the trades, only two younger workers are replacing them, creating a significant gap3. In Canada, more than 245,100 construction workers are expected to retire by 2032, resulting in a shortfall of over 61,400 workers7. By 2029, Canada anticipates losing 257,000 construction workers to retirement, further exacerbating the shortage2.

Younger generations, particularly Millennials and Gen Z, are not entering the trades at a rate sufficient to meet demand. In the U.S., less than 9% of skilled tradespeople are between 19 and 24 years old, while 40% are over 4511. The proportion of U.S. high school students earning credits in occupational education has dropped from 1 in 4 in 1990 to 1 in 5 today12. This pipeline issue means that as older workers retire, there are simply not enough trained individuals to take their place.

Economic and Infrastructure Impacts

The shortage of skilled tradespeople is having profound economic consequences. In the U.S., 70% of employers report difficulty finding qualified workers for trade roles, leading to project delays, increased costs, and challenges meeting infrastructure demands2. In Canada, over 10,000 skilled workers are needed in high-demand Red Seal trades over the next five years, with the actual number likely higher when accounting for all trades2. The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters estimate that the skills shortage in manufacturing alone cost the economy $13 billion in 2022 due to lost contracts and delayed investments5. Additionally, over 60% of Canadian companies surveyed reported economic losses, with more than 40% canceling expansion projects due to labor shortages5.

This scarcity also contributes to inflationary pressures. As skilled labor becomes harder to find, the cost of services like plumbing, electrical work, and construction rises, worsening housing affordability crises in both countries5. In Canada, the construction industry lost 45,000 jobs in July 2023, despite increased homebuilding efforts, highlighting the persistent labor gap5. In the U.S., looming retirements and a shortage of one million skilled tradespeople compared to 2007 levels are hindering productivity and growth8.

Systemic Barriers and Policy Challenges

Several systemic issues contribute to this imbalance. In both countries, career guidance in schools often prioritizes university tracks over vocational options. In the U.S., Washington State’s auditor recommended starting career guidance as early as seventh grade to highlight trade opportunities, as many students are unaware of the high-paying jobs available without a degree12. Federal funding for vocational programs, such as Tech-Prep, has been cut since 2011, and many states have reduced funding for postsecondary career and technical education12.

Immigration policies also play a role. In the U.S., immigrants make up roughly 25% of the construction workforce, but proposed policy shifts and deportations could further diminish this labor pool, especially in regions like the Southwest and Southeast29. In Canada, only 4% of economic immigrants hold trade certifications, despite 16% of job vacancies requiring such credentials, creating a significant mismatch between labor needs and immigration flows4.

Potential Solutions and Positive Shifts

Despite these challenges, there are signs of progress and proposed solutions. In the U.S., states like California, Iowa, and Tennessee are investing in career and technical education, with initiatives like free technical colleges and expanded apprenticeships12. At the federal level, there is bipartisan support for making Pell grants available for short-term job training12. In Canada, experts advocate for early education, VR training in classrooms, and attracting more youth to the trades through podcasts and advocacy efforts1. Immigration reform to prioritize trade certifications could also help close the gap4.

Moreover, Gen Z is showing increasing interest in trades due to factors like job security, minimal education debt, and the appeal of technology-driven work environments. Enrollment in U.S. construction trade programs grew by 19.3% from spring 2021 to spring 2022, signaling a potential shift11. High job satisfaction among tradespeople—91% in the U.S.—further underscores the appeal of these careers, driven by tangible impacts, good pay (some roles exceed $100,000 annually), and resilience against AI automation810.

Conclusion

The overemphasis on university degrees in North America has created a critical shortage of skilled tradespeople, threatening economic stability and infrastructure development. While societal stigmas, an aging workforce, and policy barriers have fueled this crisis, emerging solutions like enhanced vocational education, immigration reform, and changing attitudes among younger generations offer hope. Addressing this imbalance requires a coordinated effort to reframe the trades as viable, rewarding career paths and to ensure the workforce meets the demands of a growing economy.

Citations:

Answer from Perplexity: pplx.ai/share

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Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Too many degrees and not enough trades people in North America