There is growing evidence that—despite periods of significant rainfall and frequent perceptions of "plenty of moisture"—aggregate soil moisture across the Canadian Prairies is declining year over year. This situation is masked by short-term wet spells, but longer-term trends reveal persistent deficits, especially when considering multi-year periods and underlying soil profiles.
Trends in Prairie Soil Moisture
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Multi-Year Deficit: From 2020 to 2023, large regions across the Prairies (including areas from Calgary to Red Deer and up to Whitecourt) experienced once-in-50-year lows in moisture, with cumulative deficits of 400–600mm in some areas. Even after occasional "wet" years, these deficits have not been fully erased; 2016 was the last truly wet year that substantially replenished surface and groundwater reserves.grainswest
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2025 Warnings: Recent crop and government reports highlight that soil moisture in many areas, particularly Saskatchewan, is now critical. For example, weekly surveys in 2025 saw the proportion of soils rated 'short to very short' jump from 32% to 53%, and the situation has worsened steadily since early May. Even isolated showers have been insufficient—many sites recorded only trace amounts of rain, well below normal for the season.dtnpf
Perception vs. Reality
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Surface Moisture vs. Deep Reserve: Visible surface moisture, such as puddling after thunderstorms or lush early growth, creates a perception of adequate water. However, deep soil profiles, pastures, and haylands still suffer from the accumulated multi-year dryness. Even when some regions experience above-average rains, others remain severely deficit, leading to a patchwork reality of soil health across the Prairies.grainswest+2
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Widespread Drought Classification: At the end of May 2025, 77% of the Prairie Region was classified as 'Abnormally Dry' (D0) or in Moderate to Extreme Drought (D1 to D3), including 72% of the region's agricultural land. Notably, severe drought is expanding into new regions, with declining soil moisture, poor pasture/hay growth, and reduced surface water reported by provincial and federal monitors.publications
Why Is Soil Moisture Falling?
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Variable Precipitation Patterns: The Prairie climate is highly variable, with both precipitation and temperature extremes. Short wet periods cannot reliably offset multi-year dry spells.
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Deficit Carryover: If a region enters winter dry, it is unlikely to recover during the low-precipitation months. Even a normal snowpack often fails to fully recharge soil profiles, especially after several consecutive dry years.
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High Winds and Heat: Persistent high winds and above-normal temperatures accelerate moisture loss, further reducing soil water available for crops and natural vegetation.producer
Conclusion
While perception is often shaped by short-term, local conditions—such as heavy rains or temporary flooding—the aggregate and longer-term data show declining soil moisture year over year across most of the Prairies. Periodic rains may bring temporary relief, but they are not enough to reverse entrenched deficits from prolonged dry cycles. Continued monitoring and adaptive management are needed as the region faces increasing variability in both climate and water availability.grainswest+2
- https://grainswest.com/2025/01/soil-situation-varies/
- https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2025/06/06/extended-forecast-needed-rainfall-2
- https://grainswest.com/2025/07/the-ups-and-downs-of-wet-weather/
- https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2025/aac-aafc/A27-39-2025-5-eng.pdf
- https://www.producer.com/opinion/dry-weather-forces-prairie-producers-to-begin-drought-watch/
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167880923004140
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0303243419313534
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11829189/
- https://changingclimate.ca/regional-perspectives/chapter/4-0/
- https://carleton.ca/glel/wp-content/uploads/Sun_et_al_2011-Multiple-drought-indices-for-agricultural.pdf
- https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10040-022-02460-1
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