Is the American Midwest becoming a new Sahara because of high pressure systems in the Northwest Pacific parking themselves off the west coast and deflecting moist air moving east, to the north and south?
AI: Now I have enough information to construct a thorough answer. Let me synthesize the findings.
The question touches on a real and well-documented meteorological mechanism, but it's more nuanced than a simple analogy to the Sahara. Here's a comprehensive breakdown:
The Midwest Is Drying — But the Mechanism Is More Complex
The premise of your question captures something real and important. As of late May 2026, a staggering 60.77% of the contiguous Lower 48 states are currently in drought, with the most severe conditions concentrated in the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest — and those conditions are forecast to expand and intensify through summer 2026. The "new Sahara" framing is evocative but somewhat imprecise; the actual dynamics involve several overlapping forces.[1][2]
The Pacific Blocking Ridge — The "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge"
Your intuition about a high-pressure system off the West Coast is well-grounded. The phenomenon was formally named the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" (Triple R or RRR) by scientist Daniel Swain in 2013. It is a firmly situated mass of high atmospheric pressure along the West Coast that blocks the Pacific jet stream from delivering moisture-laden storms to the West Coast and interior. Instead of normal westerly flow, the RRR deflects storms northward over Alaska and Vancouver, bringing excess rain to already-wet regions while leaving California, the Southwest, and increasingly the Great Plains parched.[3][4]
The geographic focus of your question is slightly shifted, though: you identify the Northwest Pacific (open ocean) as the source, whereas the RRR is most often anchored over the northeastern Pacific along or just off the West Coast. The effect is the same — a persistent ridge parks itself and the jet stream buckles around it rather than flowing straight across the continent.[5]
The True Moisture Source for the Midwest: The Gulf
This is the crucial piece your question's framing may underestimate. The prevailing westerlies that cross the Pacific are relatively cold and dry by the time they reach the interior because mountains along the West Coast strip their moisture. The Great Plains' primary moisture supply is actually the Gulf of Mexico — warm, humid air transported northward by the Great Plains Low-Level Jet (a nocturnal wind maximum) into the heart of the continent. During Great Plains droughts, it is specifically the interruption of this Gulf moisture transport that triggers failure, not just Pacific blocking. When the jet stream shifts north and a high-pressure system builds over the northern Plains, it deflects Gulf moisture eastward toward the Atlantic coast or south toward Mexico and Central America — effectively switching off the Midwest's rain tap.[6]
So your model is partially correct but identifies the wrong ocean as the primary moisture source. The Pacific ridge sets up the atmospheric configuration that allows the Gulf moisture blockage to happen.
Arctic Amplification — The Deeper Driver
The reason the RRR and similar blocking patterns are becoming more frequent and persistent is increasingly linked to Arctic amplification — the Arctic is now warming four times faster than the global average. This reduces the temperature gradient between the poles and the tropics, which is the engine that keeps the jet stream fast and relatively straight. A weaker gradient means:[7]
- The jet stream slows and becomes "wavier" (more meridional), making large north-south undulations[8]
- These amplified waves move more slowly and can stall for weeks, creating the blocking pattern you describe[9]
- When the ridge locks over the West and the trough locks over the East, the Midwest sits in a moisture shadow between the two[10]
NOAA's Arctic Report Card notes that this weak, wavy jet stream configuration "favors persistent drought and heat spells" over broad continental areas. A May 2026 forecast analysis confirmed exactly this pattern is currently active: "a persistent Northwest U.S. high pressure ridge supporting a broad very warm pattern" with the Great Plains explicitly "cutoff from Gulf moisture" and running in a "nationally drier than normal regime".[11][12]
Is It Becoming a "New Sahara"?
The Sahara itself formed through a gradual reduction in monsoon intensity over thousands of years, driven by changes in Earth's orbital tilt. The Midwest is not undergoing anything on that timescale. However, structural, semi-permanent aridification — distinct from cyclical drought — is a legitimate scientific concern:[13]
- A 2025 Nature Water study found global aridification now affects 40% of Earth's land and 2.3 billion people, including the Great Plains and California's Central Valley[14]
- Dust storms across the Great Plains have doubled in frequency and intensity over the past 20 years, with one researcher stating: "Our results suggest a tipping point is approaching where conditions of the 1930s could return"[15]
- The Ogallala Aquifer (the underground reservoir underlying much of the Great Plains) is being depleted faster than it recharges — a compounding factor as surface precipitation declines[16]
- A 2020 PNAS study documented that warming-driven aridification is expanding across North America, with temperature increases amplifying drought stress even in years with normal precipitation, due to increased evapotranspiration[17]
The NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, however, struck a more cautious note: a 2012 study found future Great Plains drought "probably not as dire as some earlier studies projecting a semi-permanent Dust Bowl suggest". The uncertainty is real — some models show enhanced summer convection periodically breaking the drought cycle.[18][19]
The Feedback Loop That Worries Scientists Most
Perhaps most alarming is a self-reinforcing cycle: drought desiccates the soil, bare dry soil heats faster, the surface heat amplifies and sustains the high-pressure ridge above it, the ridge blocks more moisture, and the soil dries further. Research on the 1930s Dust Bowl shows this exact mechanism created hemispheric heat teleconnections that spread extreme temperatures far beyond the Great Plains. A 2026 return of that feedback loop, superimposed on a baseline of 1.2–1.5°C of warming already in the system, could be substantially worse.[20][21]
Summary of the Mechanism
Force | Role in Midwest Drying |
Pacific blocking ridge (RRR) | Deflects Pacific storms northward; sets atmospheric configuration |
Weakened jet stream (Arctic amplification) | Allows ridges to persist for weeks instead of days |
Gulf moisture blockage | The actual proximate cause of Great Plains drought |
Background warming | Amplifies evaporation and soil desiccation even with normal rainfall |
Land-use and aquifer depletion | Removes resilience buffers, worsens the soil-heat feedback |
In short: you've identified a real and increasingly important mechanism. The Pacific ridge deflects Pacific-origin storms north or south, but the more direct villain for Midwest drought is the same blocking pattern's disruption of Gulf moisture transport combined with Arctic-driven jet stream waviness. Whether this becomes permanent Sahara-scale desertification or a severe multi-decadal aridification episode depends significantly on whether global warming continues unchecked — and current trajectories lean toward the grimmer end of that spectrum.[14][16]
⁂
- The long term political implications of this report could be the revival of plans to transfer water from Western Canada south to the US with the possible use of force to do so?
This is a genuinely important and well-grounded geopolitical question, and the research shows the concern is already live — not hypothetical.
The "Zombie Project" Reawakens
Your instinct is historically well-founded. The North American Water and Power Alliance (NAWAPA) — first conceived by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in the 1950s and refined by the Ralph M. Parsons engineering company — proposed diverting water from the Yukon, Liard, and Peace Rivers southward through the Rocky Mountain Trench into the U.S. Midwest, Southwest, and Mexico. The project involved 369 separate construction works, a 500-mile reservoir in the Rocky Mountain Trench, and a price tag estimated at $100 billion in 1975 dollars. It was killed by environmental and diplomatic opposition, but researchers have called it a "zombie" project — always resurfacing, never dead.[1][2]
NAWAPA was literally touted again at a White House Jobs Summit in 2020 as a WPA-style employment and infrastructure program. The underlying demand pressure that created it has only grown since.[3]
Trump Has Already Signalled Intent
This is no longer abstract history. During the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, Donald Trump explicitly referenced a "very large faucet" in British Columbia that could be turned on to bring water to California. After his inauguration, Trump went further — in a heated phone call with then-PM Trudeau in early 2025, he challenged the validity of the border treaty between Canada and the U.S., expressed skepticism about its legitimacy, and raised the question of shared waters. He also repeatedly floated the idea of making Canada the "51st state" and noted that "Canada's resources plus U.S. military strength would make a great combination" — language that was widely interpreted as a veiled threat.[4][5][6][1]
Canadian water policy expert Maude Barlow stated bluntly: "Trump's statement should not be dismissed" given the 51st state rhetoric and the explicit linkage of resources and military power.[4]
The Columbia River Treaty: Already Used as Leverage
The most concrete immediate threat is not NAWAPA but the Columbia River Treaty, a 1964 agreement governing flood control and hydropower between Canada and the U.S.. After a decade of renegotiations produced an agreement-in-principle in July 2024, the Trump administration paused all negotiations after taking office in 2025. According to the New York Times, Trump explicitly raised the Columbia River Treaty in his February 2025 call with Trudeau as one of the ways he believed Canada had exploited the U.S. — signaling it could become trade war leverage. B.C. risks losing approximately US$200 million annually in hydropower entitlements if the treaty lapses without renewal.[7][8][9][10]
Canada's Legal Defences — Real But Fragile
Canada has several layers of legal protection against bulk water exports:
- The International Boundary Waters Treaty Act (2001) prohibits bulk removal of water from Canadian boundary waters, including the Great Lakes[11]
- The Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 requires both countries to agree on projects that alter water levels and flows in shared waters[12]
- The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin Compact prohibits Great Lakes diversions[13]
However, all of these protections depend on the U.S. honouring treaty obligations — and Trump has directly questioned the legitimacy of the border treaty itself. If the U.S. were to unilaterally abrogate or simply ignore these frameworks, Canada's recourse would be political and diplomatic rather than immediately enforceable. The January 2026 analysis by the Council of Canadians noted that neither nation would be legally barred from diverting Great Lakes water if the Boundary Waters Treaty were effectively dismantled.[14][6]
The "Force" Question
The idea of military coercion over water is not science fiction in the longer arc of history — resource wars have been a feature of human civilization for millennia. In the current context:
- Trump's explicit linking of Canada's resources with U.S. military strength is the closest any sitting or incoming U.S. president has come to a coercive framing[5]
- The annexation rhetoric, while dismissed by most analysts as bluster, created a political climate in Canada where water sovereignty became a national security issue, not just an environmental one[1]
- Canada has about 7% of the planet's renewable freshwater, but the "myth of abundance" is precisely that — by October 2024, Agriculture Canada had classified 64% of Canada as abnormally to extremely dry, meaning Canada faces its own emerging scarcity[15]
Direct military force remains an extreme and unlikely scenario given the deep integration of Canadian and American economies and institutions. But economic coercion — using tariffs, treaty abrogation, or energy deal threats to extract water concessions — is already a partially demonstrated strategy under the current U.S. administration.[8][7]
The Indigenous Dimension
This is the dimension most often overlooked in geopolitical analysis. NAWAPA's proposed route through the Peace, Liard, and Yukon river systems runs directly through Treaty territories and unceded Indigenous lands in northern B.C. and Alberta. Implementation would cause massive displacement and destruction of traditional lands and resources. Indigenous nations in both Canada and the U.S. have historically been the most consistent opponents of large-scale water diversions — and in the current era of UNDRIP and enhanced treaty rights, any revival of NAWAPA-style projects would face immediate and well-grounded legal challenges under Indigenous law.[16]
Given your location in Central Alberta, it's worth noting that the Peace River system — headwaters of which flow through your region — is explicitly named in the NAWAPA plans as a diversion source.[17]
The Bottom Line
The progression from Midwest drought → Pacific blocking intensification → political pressure for Canadian water diversion is a plausible and already partially-activated causal chain. NAWAPA is a zombie that wakes up every time the American West gets thirsty enough. The difference now is that:
- Midwest and Great Plains drought is structurally deepening, not cycling[18][19]
- A U.S. president has for the first time explicitly invoked both Canada's water and U.S. military power in the same breath[5]
- The key treaty framework (Columbia River Treaty) is actively being used as a bargaining chip[7]
- Canada itself faces growing water stress, undermining any justification for export[15]
The most realistic near-term scenario is not military action but coercive economic and treaty pressure to extract water concessions as part of broader Canada-U.S. renegotiations — with the long-term spectre of NAWAPA or a scaled-down version re-emerging as U.S. aridity worsens through the 2030s and beyond.
⁂
- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php
- https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions
- https://savesfbay.org/ridiculously-resilient-ridge-explained/
- https://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/environment/weather-scientist-explains-drought-west/
- https://protectourwinters.org/will-high-pressure-ridge-in-pacific-cause-rockies-to-stay-dry-til-january/
- https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/NAmerDrought/NAmer_drought_3b.php
- https://www.woodwellclimate.org/project/extreme-weather-and-climate-change/severe-weather-arctic-warming/
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4455715/
- https://arctic-council.org/news/shifting-winds-how-a-wavier-polar-jet-stream-causes-extreme-weather-events/
- https://skepticalscience.com/warming-arctic-weird-weather.html
- https://climateimpactcompany.com/u-s-week-2-4-outlook-western-warmth-reluctant-to-spread-east-great-plains-mostly-drier-than-normal-2-2/
- https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2018/clarity-and-clouds-progress-in-understanding-arctic-influences-on-mid-latitude-weather/
- https://www.reuters.com/article/economy/sahara-dried-out-slowly-not-abruptly-study-idUSL08330188/
- https://phys.org/news/2025-04-highlights-global-aridification-threat-agriculture.html
- https://www.science.org/content/article/dust-bowl-20-rising-great-plains-dust-levels-stir-concerns
- https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-threatens-second-dust-bowl/
- https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2006323117
- https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/midwestern-drought-expected-to-linger/
- https://psl.noaa.gov/spotlight/2012/great-plains-drought.html
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9576710/
- https://climateimpactcompany.com/april-2025-global-soil-moisture-outlook-2/
- https://www.npr.org/transcripts/90289718?storyId=90289718
- https://www.facebook.com/fox9kmsp/posts/the-hot-and-dry-weather-is-here-to-stay-as-a-sprawling-ridge-of-high-pressure-cr/1470019065167545/
- https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/article/the-ridiculously-resilient-ridge-and-californias-extreme-weather-future/
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWdBYcO-1CI
- https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/climate-change/changing-land
- https://www.drought.gov/news/drought-2025-14-graphics-2026-01-15
- https://www.reddit.com/r/meteorology/comments/1rmwhej/unbelievably_rigid_pattern_for_the_us/
- https://earth.org/data_visualization/the-past-present-and-future-of-the-sahara-desert/
- https://www.reddit.com/r/meteorology/comments/1qbcy69/if_the_jet_stream_is_moving_north_wouldnt_that/
- https://glisa.umich.edu/arctic-amplification-and-arctic-oscillation/
- https://www.facebook.com/MetService/posts/blocking-whatblocking-high-the-term-is-used-around-in-the-forecast-room-often-an/1759944130734304/
- https://www.drought.gov/webinars/summer-2025-drought-and-fire-outlook-webinar-great-plains
- https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/er-2025-0098
- https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/ten-new-insights-in-climate-science-2025/8273DE03FB570A1C5EB88D0112AFE37D
- https://goldrushcam.com/sierrasuntimes/index.php/news/local-news/76071-california-and-national-drought-summary-for-march-3-2026-10-day-weather-outlook-and-california-drought-statistics-100-of-state-not-in-drought-conditions
- https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-outlook
- https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/great-depression-and-world-war-ii-1929-1945/dust-bowl/
- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?high_plains
- https://climateimpactcompany.com/daily-feature-cmc-90-day-outlook-for-canada-implicates-north-central-and-coastal-northwest-u-s-for-a-dry-late-spring-to-mid-summer-season-2/
- https://www.facebook.com/groups/968580683281312/posts/3619206691552018/
- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhuE5G6HTS4
- https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northwest/topic/2021-northwest-heat-dome-causes-impacts-and-future-outlook
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36289-3
- https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/us-drought-weekly-report-november-5-2024
- https://bulletin.cmos.ca/the-unprecedented-pacific-northwest-heatwave-of-june-2021/
- https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1689/2022/
- https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/clivar_drought_wg/docs/Mechanisms.pdf
- https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/
- https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/publicationstatus/96285/preprint_pdf/d79c569e9c187d0e98f503bf54714146.pdf
- https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/atmospheric-blocking-increase
- https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28959/noaa_28959_DS1.pdf
- https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL099396
- https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/publicationstatus/308469/preprint_pdf/f5fab100bbb134021f6009664a56d208.pdf
- https://www.facebook.com/Q2News/posts/according-to-climate-experts-the-associated-press-reported-that-the-pacific-nort/429995845836507/
- https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/donald-trump-water-canada-peter-lougheed-1.7459583
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Water_and_Power_Alliance
- https://www.watereducation.org/aquafornia-news/ginormous-canada-us-water-diversion-project-touted-white-house-jobs-summit-source
- https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2025/01/14/trumps-aggressive-water-statement-riles-unites-canadians/
- https://thenarwhal.ca/canada-us-water-trump/
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/world/canada/trump-trudeau-canada-51st-state.html
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/technology/trump-canada-columbia-river-treaty.html
- https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6681244
- https://www.biv.com/news/kirk-lapointe-bc-risks-losing-billions-with-columbia-river-treaty-left-in-limbo-10194149
- https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/international-affairs/partnerships-countries-regions/north-america/canada-united-states-columbia-river.html
- https://www.iatp.org/news/canada-enacts-legislation-banning-bulk-water-exports-from-the-great-lakes
- https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/corporate/international-affairs/partnerships-countries-regions/north-america/canada-united-states-boundary-waters-treaty.html
- https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid%3AUSC-prelim-title42-section1962d-20&num=0&edition=prelim
- https://canadians.org/analysis/what-could-recent-u-s-actions-mean-for-freshwater-and-for-the-us-canadian-great-lakes-partnership/
- https://canadians.org/analysis/when-trump-comes-calling-for-our-water-canada-must-be-ready/
- https://news.malevus.com/is-the-u-s-eyeing-canadas-water-a-decades-old-plan-resurfaces/
- https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/north-american-water-and-power-alliance
- https://climateimpactcompany.com/u-s-week-2-4-outlook-western-warmth-reluctant-to-spread-east-great-plains-mostly-drier-than-normal-2-2/
- https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-threatens-second-dust-bowl/
- https://www.facebook.com/CanadiansOrg/posts/trump-has-likened-canadas-fresh-water-to-a-giant-faucet-and-slashing-cutting-cli/826267096409613/
- https://flowwateradvocates.org/canadas-bill-6-great-lakes-protection-act-the-public-trust-and-your-water-rights/
- https://www.uvic.ca/research/centres/globalstudies/assets/docs/publications/PotentialProblemswithCrossBorderWaterIssues.pdf
- https://www.facebook.com/university.waterloo/posts/canada-and-the-us-share-the-great-lakes-except-lake-michigan-half-of-the-trade-b/1076980421129590/
- https://archive.schillerinstitute.com/economy/phys_econ/nawapa.html
- https://corporateknights.com/water/trumps-deregulation-agenda-poses-a-threat-to-water-health-and-security/
- https://pugwashgroup.ca/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/events_Water_2008-Water-TurningonCanadasTapApr08[1].pdf
- https://www.facebook.com/groups/814627200072009/posts/1292016012333123/
- https://publications.gc.ca/Pilot/LoPBdP/LS/c6-e.htm
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9gziqNg7RQ
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_export
- https://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-17/FullText.html
No comments:
Post a Comment