Caspian Sea Level

The Caspian Sea stands at approximately -29.48 to -29.54 meters below Baltic height system reference as of October 2025, marking one of the lowest levels in recorded history. This represents a critical environmental situation for the world's largest inland body of water.baku​

Current Status

As of the most recent measurements in October 2025, observation stations recorded average values of minus 29.48 m in the northeastern part of the sea and minus 29.54 m in the eastern sections. This level is dangerously close to the historical minimum of -29.0 m recorded in 1977 during the systematic measurement period.savethecaspiansea+1​

The recent decline has been dramatic and accelerating. The sea dropped by approximately 35 cm between September 2022 and September 2023, and reached -29.1 m in February 2024. Winter 2024/2025 projections suggest levels could reach approximately -29.5 m.savethecaspiansea​

Accelerating Decline Rate

The rate of water loss has dramatically increased in recent years:

• Since 2000, the average decline rate was about 6 cm per yeartheconversation​

• Since 2020, the rate has accelerated to 25-35 cm annually, and even up to 30 cm per yearstimson+3​

• NASA satellite data from 2020-2025 shows a decline rate of nearly 7 cm per year, which is 20 times faster than global ocean level riseastanatimes​

Primary Causes

The decline results from a combination of climate and anthropogenic factors:

Climate Change and Evaporation: Temperatures in the Caspian region have risen 0.51°C per decade (1976-2024), significantly higher than global rates. This warming increases evaporation to approximately 334 cubic kilometers annually, which far exceeds the 55 cubic kilometers of annual precipitation.renewablematter+1​

Reduced Volga River Inflow: The Volga River supplies approximately 80% of the Caspian's freshwater. Annual discharge has fallen to 210-232 cubic kilometers in recent years, well below the historical average of around 250 cubic kilometers. This reduction stems from decreased snowmelt and precipitation rather than dam construction alone.timesca+1​

Future Projections

Forecasts are concerning. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Ecology estimates the level could drop to -29.9 m by 2030 if current trends persist. Over the longer term, scientists project the water level could decline by 9 to 21 meters by 2100, potentially reducing the sea's surface area by 23-37%.wikipedia+3​

The northern Caspian, with depths not exceeding five meters in many areas, faces the most dramatic changes and could virtually disappear by 2050.astanatimes​

Regional Implications

Such dramatic declines would have severe consequences. A 10-meter drop would dry up 80% of shallow zones and create contaminated salt plains. The northern Caspian shoreline has already retreated several kilometers in recent years, and Kazakhstan warns that the port of Aktau could end up 89 kilometers from the sea. Regional economic losses could exceed 10 billion dollars annually, affecting nearly 15 million people along the coastline.renewablematter+2​

1. https://baku.ws/en/world/warnings-in-kazakhstan-about-further-drop-in-caspian-sea-levels-by-the-end-of-the-decade
2. http://savethecaspiansea.com/tpost/aayryngfa1-advances-in-environmental-monitoring-of
3. https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-fast-shrinking-the-worlds-largest-inland-sea-265239
4. https://www.stimson.org/2025/caspian-sea-decline-harms-iran-and-raises-regional-tensions/
5. https://astanatimes.com/2025/09/caspian-sea-is-shrinking-and-faster-than-we-may-think/
6. https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/caspian-sea-drying-up-kazakhstan-russia-volga-river
7. https://timesca.com/the-caspian-sea-hits-historic-low/
8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_Sea
9. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/the-caspians-shallow-north-149054/
10. https://journal-neo.su/2025/11/08/caspian-sea-water-level-reduction-factors-consequences-and-outlook/