Again, using available data, including Nullschool, can you discern trends on the Canadian prairies and US Mid West towards continental heating and drying?

To answer your question with the precision of a HAL-9000 unit (minus the airlock malfunctions): Yes. The data unequivocally supports a trend toward continental heating and aridification across the Canadian Prairies and the US Midwest.

The most significant finding is that the historical "dry line" of North America is physically moving.

1. The Structural Shift: The "100th Meridian" is Moving East

Historically, the 100th Meridian West (running roughly through Brandon, Manitoba down through Dodge City, Kansas) was the climatological divide between the moist East and the arid West.

• The Data: Research confirms this boundary has shifted approximately 140 miles (225 km) eastward since 1980, now sitting closer to the 98th Meridian.

• The Mechanism: This is not just about less rain; it is about Evaporative Demand. As temperatures rise, the atmosphere's "thirst" increases. Even if rainfall remains static, the effective moisture available to soil and crops decreases because the heat evaporates it faster.

• Implication for Calgary/Midwest: The semi-arid climate of "Palliser's Triangle" (southeastern Alberta) is effectively expanding outward, consuming more of Saskatchewan and pushing the "corn belt" climate of the US Midwest further north and east.

2. The Current Driver: The "Double-Dip" La Niña

Current data (late 2024/2025) suggests we are entering or are in a La Niña phase, which exacerbates this trend.

• The Pattern: La Niña typically pushes the Jet Stream north, leaving the Southern US dry and often creating "blocking ridges" over the Central Plains.

• 2025 Outlook: Forecasts identify a high risk of "rapid drying" (flash drought) for the Western Corn Belt and the Canadian Prairies in Summer 2025. While you might see temporary relief (like the recent moisture in the Oldman Watershed), the multi-year trend is a deficit in deep soil moisture.

3. How to Validate this on Earth.Nullschool.net

You cannot see "soil moisture" directly on the standard Nullschool interface, but you can visualize the three engines driving this drying trend.

A. The Engine: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA)

• Settings: Mode: Ocean | Overlay: SSTA

• What to Look For: Look at the Equatorial Pacific (west of Peru). You will likely see a distinct blue streak (cold water).

• Significance: This blue tongue is La Niña. It distorts the global jet stream, effectively "locking in" the dry patterns over North America.

B. The Mechanism: The "Omega Block" (Ridging)

• Settings: Mode: Air | Height: 500hPa | Overlay: Wind or Geopotential Height (if avail)

• What to Look For: In summer, look for the wind streamlines over Western North America to bend violently northward (up into NWT/Yukon) and then crash down over the Great Lakes. This shape (resembling the Greek letter Ω) creates a "Dome of High Pressure" over the Prairies/Midwest.

• Result: This dome physically blocks moisture-laden Lows from entering the region, deflecting them into Northern Canada.

C. The Result: Temperature Anomaly

• Settings: Mode: Air | Height: Surface | Overlay: Temp Anomaly

• What to Look For: Do not just look at "Temp" (which fluctuates). Look at Anomaly. You will frequently see the continental interior (Alberta to Nebraska) glowing bright red/orange (indicating +5°C to +10°C above baseline), while the coasts might be neutral. This "Continental Heating" is the signature of land drying out (dry soil heats faster than wet soil).

Summary of Trends (2020–2025)

Feature	Trend	Impact on Prairies/Midwest
Aridity Line	Shifting East	The "Desert" is expanding into the "Breadbasket."
Winter Temps	Warming Faster	Less snowpack accumulation = less spring runoff for aquifers.
Precipitation	More Volatile	Rain comes in "deluges" (runoff) rather than "soakers" (infiltration).
Soil Moisture	Deficit	Deep soil reserves (root zone) are failing to recharge fully between seasons.

Your observation of "continental heating and drying" is not just an anecdote; it is the dominant meteorological narrative for the region this decade.

1. https://climateimpactcompany.com/ag-market-early-global-weather-climate-alert-climate-forecasts-project-significant-drought-risk-canadian-prairies-to-midwest-u-s-next-warm-season-2/
2. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2018/04/11/the-100th-meridian-where-the-great-plains-used-to-begin-now-moving-east/
3. https://www.drought.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/Prairies%20High%20Plains%20Outlook%20Spring%202025.pdf
4. https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/drought-status-update-midwest-2024-12-19
5. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/tracking-deluge-and-drought-through-soil-moisture-150138/
6. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTtCdf-K-Uk
7. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/58899/noaa_58899_DS1.pdf
8. https://oldmanwatershed.ca/blog-posts/2025/11/10/fall-drought-update
9. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/drought/202406
10. https://drought.emergency.copernicus.eu/data/factsheets/factsheet_soilmoisture.pdf
11. https://climateimpactcompany.com/ag-market-early-alert-canadian-prairies-and-u-s-ag-belt-shift-wetter-southwest-south-europe-heat-and-dryness-while-western-russia-is-cool-wet-2/
12. https://www.audaciouswater.org/episodes/season-3/episode-7-richard-seager-the-100th-meridian-and-climate-change
13. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor/current-drought-conditions
14. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/drought/202407
15. https://earth.nullschool.net
16. https://www.world-grain.com/articles/19544-is-another-dry-summer-in-store-for-north-america
17. https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-04-12-100th-meridian-great-plains-shifting
18. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-outlook
19. https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/drought-status-update-midwest-2024-04-25
20. https://earth.nullschool.net/about