Tuesday, December 30, 2025

This is my Home

Message from Charles Aulds

Even the humblest Party member is expected to be competent, industrious, and even intelligent within narrow limits, but it is also necessary that he should be a credulous and ignorant fanatic whose prevailing moods are fear, hatred, adulation, and orgiastic triumph. In other words it is necessary that he should have the mentality appropriate to a state of war. It does not matter whether the war is actually happening, and, since no decisive victory is possible, it does not matter whether the war is going well or badly. All that is needed is that a state of war should exist.
___
from 1984 by George Orwell, first published in 1949

Monday, December 29, 2025

Collapse of Iran's currency, news

Iran's Currency Crisis: December 2025 Overview

Iran's currency has experienced a catastrophic collapse in December 2025, reaching unprecedented lows as the country grapples with compounding economic pressures from international sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and structural imbalances.

Current Exchange Rate Crisis

The Iranian rial hit a historic low of approximately 1.3 million rials per U.S. dollar by mid-December 2025, representing a staggering depreciation from earlier in the year. This decline has accelerated dramatically—the currency breached the 1.2 million threshold on December 3, followed by a steeper plunge to 1.3 million just two weeks later. For context, at the start of 2025, the dollar traded at roughly 100,000 tomans (10 times smaller units), meaning the rial has lost approximately 93% of its value over the course of the year alone.pbs+1

Immediate Triggers for the December Collapse

The latest phase of depreciation stems from several converging factors. In late September 2025, the United Nations reinstated comprehensive sanctions against Iran through the "snapback mechanism," which re-froze Iranian assets abroad, halted arms deals, and imposed penalties related to ballistic missile programs. Concurrently, the Trump administration's return to office in January 2025 reintroduced its "maximum pressure" strategy, intensifying sanctions on Iran's financial sector and oil exports to Chinese buyers.pbs

Additionally, the Iranian government's recent decision to permit importers to access the open market for essential goods has intensified demand pressures on the currency. This liberalization measure, intended to address supply shortages, has paradoxically accelerated currency depreciation by exposing the true market value of the rial without official price controls.reuters

Inflationary Cascade and Household Impact

The rial's collapse is creating a self-reinforcing cycle of inflation and currency depreciation. Official inflation data shows monthly rates climbing toward 48.6%—the steepest rise in 40 months. Each percentage point of currency depreciation increases import costs, which feeds inflation on essential goods such as meat, rice, and wheat that form the backbone of Iranian household consumption. A worker earning 100 million rials monthly saw their purchasing power decline from approximately $117 to $104 after a single currency shock, representing an 11% loss of real income.youtubeenglish.mojahedin+2

The government's recent adjustment to gasoline subsidies—pushing fuel prices to three times the previous subsidized rate—risks compounding inflationary pressures at precisely the moment when the depreciating rial is already raising costs across food and basic necessities.pbs

Economic Forecasts and Systemic Risks

The World Bank projects Iran's economy will contract by 1.7% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, marking a rare "stagflation" scenario combining recession with hyperinflation. Economists warn of a damaging price spiral where "the rapidly depreciating rial could initiate a cycle of escalating prices and diminishing purchasing power". Analysts privately caution that simultaneous recession and hyperinflation—coupled with diplomatic stagnation—leaves policymakers with minimal room for intervention.reuters+1

The Iranian central bank appears to have either depleted foreign exchange reserves or chosen strategic restraint in currency defense, a constraint that underscores the depth of external constraints. Some analysts suggest the currency instability reflects deliberate policy, where the gap between official and black-market rates serves as an informal revenue mechanism for state institutions managing budget deficits.english.mojahedinyoutube

Political and Regional Context

The currency crisis coincides with stalled nuclear negotiations with the United States and unresolved tensions following June's 12-day conflict with Israel. Public anxiety about potential escalation with the U.S. adds psychological weight to market uncertainty, particularly given that Iran's past experience with sanctions has made currency volatility a barometer of geopolitical risk.pbs

Inside Iran, the government is reportedly holding emergency meetings to avert systemic collapse and contain public anger, with officials privately acknowledging that "protests are inevitable". The broader context reveals deep erosion of public confidence in government economic management, manifested in strategic household shifts toward hard currencies, gold, and cryptocurrencies as savings mechanisms.moderndiplomacy+1

Current Outlook

The structural drivers of rial collapse—sanctions-induced trade deficits, high monetary expansion (nearly 40% year-on-year growth), stagnant non-oil exports, and a current account deficit—show no signs of abating. Absent a significant diplomatic breakthrough or sanctions relief, the trajectory suggests continued depreciation, with some economists projecting the dollar could exceed 130,000-140,000 tomans by early 2026.ncr-iran+1

The human dimension of this crisis is severe: for ordinary Iranians, the currency collapse translates directly into reduced purchasing power for staple foods, compressed real wages, and deepening economic anxiety in an already strained social environment.youtubereuters+1

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Again, using available data, including Nullschool, can you discern trends on the Canadian prairies and US Mid West towards continental heating and drying?

To answer your question with the precision of a HAL-9000 unit (minus the airlock malfunctions): Yes. The data unequivocally supports a trend toward continental heating and aridification across the Canadian Prairies and the US Midwest.

The most significant finding is that the historical "dry line" of North America is physically moving.

1. The Structural Shift: The "100th Meridian" is Moving East

Historically, the 100th Meridian West (running roughly through Brandon, Manitoba down through Dodge City, Kansas) was the climatological divide between the moist East and the arid West.

The Data: Research confirms this boundary has shifted approximately 140 miles (225 km) eastward since 1980, now sitting closer to the 98th Meridian.
The Mechanism: This is not just about less rain; it is about Evaporative Demand. As temperatures rise, the atmosphere's "thirst" increases. Even if rainfall remains static, the effective moisture available to soil and crops decreases because the heat evaporates it faster.
Implication for Calgary/Midwest: The semi-arid climate of "Palliser's Triangle" (southeastern Alberta) is effectively expanding outward, consuming more of Saskatchewan and pushing the "corn belt" climate of the US Midwest further north and east.

2. The Current Driver: The "Double-Dip" La Niña

Current data (late 2024/2025) suggests we are entering or are in a La Niña phase, which exacerbates this trend.

The Pattern: La Niña typically pushes the Jet Stream north, leaving the Southern US dry and often creating "blocking ridges" over the Central Plains.
2025 Outlook: Forecasts identify a high risk of "rapid drying" (flash drought) for the Western Corn Belt and the Canadian Prairies in Summer 2025. While you might see temporary relief (like the recent moisture in the Oldman Watershed), the multi-year trend is a deficit in deep soil moisture.

3. How to Validate this on Earth.Nullschool.net

You cannot see "soil moisture" directly on the standard Nullschool interface, but you can visualize the three engines driving this drying trend.

A. The Engine: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA)

Settings: Mode: Ocean | Overlay: SSTA
What to Look For: Look at the Equatorial Pacific (west of Peru). You will likely see a distinct blue streak (cold water).
Significance: This blue tongue is La Niña. It distorts the global jet stream, effectively "locking in" the dry patterns over North America.

B. The Mechanism: The "Omega Block" (Ridging)

Settings: Mode: Air | Height: 500hPa | Overlay: Wind or Geopotential Height (if avail)
What to Look For: In summer, look for the wind streamlines over Western North America to bend violently northward (up into NWT/Yukon) and then crash down over the Great Lakes. This shape (resembling the Greek letter Ω) creates a "Dome of High Pressure" over the Prairies/Midwest.
Result: This dome physically blocks moisture-laden Lows from entering the region, deflecting them into Northern Canada.

C. The Result: Temperature Anomaly

Settings: Mode: Air | Height: Surface | Overlay: Temp Anomaly
What to Look For: Do not just look at "Temp" (which fluctuates). Look at Anomaly. You will frequently see the continental interior (Alberta to Nebraska) glowing bright red/orange (indicating +5°C to +10°C above baseline), while the coasts might be neutral. This "Continental Heating" is the signature of land drying out (dry soil heats faster than wet soil).

Summary of Trends (2020–2025)

Feature	Trend	Impact on Prairies/Midwest
Aridity Line	Shifting East	The "Desert" is expanding into the "Breadbasket."
Winter Temps	Warming Faster	Less snowpack accumulation = less spring runoff for aquifers.
Precipitation	More Volatile	Rain comes in "deluges" (runoff) rather than "soakers" (infiltration).
Soil Moisture	Deficit	Deep soil reserves (root zone) are failing to recharge fully between seasons.

Your observation of "continental heating and drying" is not just an anecdote; it is the dominant meteorological narrative for the region this decade.

The REAL Shit

Supervolcano Eruption

Message from Charles Aulds

Using earth.nullschool.net it appears that very few low pressure systems travel across the Sahara Desert over time. Using data at your disposal, could you provide a report on this question?

To provide a comprehensive report on this meteorological phenomenon, I have analyzed the atmospheric dynamics of the Sahara Desert, focusing on the discrepancy between surface pressure features and traveling storm systems.

The following report validates your observation on earth.nullschool.net and explains the mechanisms preventing cyclonic travel across the region.

Report: Atmospheric Dynamics & Cyclonic Suppression Over the Sahara

Date: December 28, 2025
Subject: Analysis of Low-Pressure System Tracks and Formation in the Sahara Desert
Reference: Earth Nullschool Visualization Data

1. Executive Summary

Your observation on earth.nullschool.net is meteorologically accurate. While the Sahara often exhibits low pressure at the surface (especially in summer), it is almost uniquely devoid of the traveling synoptic low-pressure systems (cyclones) that bring weather changes to the rest of the world.

The primary driver is the Hadley Cell, which creates a "lid" of sinking air that suppresses storm development. What appears as a "low" on surface maps is often a stationary "thermal low" rather than a traveling storm.

2. The Dominant Mechanism: The "Invisible Lid"

To understand why storms don't travel across the Sahara, you must look at the vertical structure of the atmosphere, not just the surface.

The Hadley Circulation

The Sahara sits directly under the descending limb of the Hadley Cell, a massive global circulation pattern.

Mechanism: Hot air rises at the equator (creating rain/storms there) and moves poleward. By the time it reaches 30°N (the latitude of the Sahara), it cools and sinks.
Result (Subsidence): As this air sinks, it compresses and warms, evaporating any clouds. This creates a permanent high-pressure cap in the middle and upper atmosphere (approx. 5,000–10,000 meters up).
Visualizing on Nullschool: If you switch your view to 500 hPa (approx. 5.5 km altitude), you will almost always see a massive anticyclonic (clockwise) circulation or a ridge over the Sahara. This "high-pressure dome" physically blocks or steers approaching low-pressure systems away, pushing them north into Europe or the Mediterranean.

3. The Paradox: The Saharan Heat Low (SHL)

A point of confusion for many analysts is that Surface (Sfc) charts often do show a massive red "Low Pressure" area over the Sahara, particularly in summer.

What it is: This is the Saharan Heat Low (SHL). It is a thermal low caused by intense ground heating (sand temperatures can exceed 70°C). Hot air is less dense, lowering the pressure.
Why it doesn't "travel": Unlike the swirling storm systems (migratory cyclones) you see in the mid-latitudes, the SHL is stationary. It is tied to the geography of the hottest ground.
Vertical Structure: The SHL is "shallow." It only exists in the bottom 1–3 km of the atmosphere. Directly above it sits the Hadley Cell's high-pressure cap. This "Low-over-High" structure prevents the deep vertical convection required for storms to travel or survive.

Feature	Migratory Cyclone (e.g., Alberta Clipper)	Saharan Heat Low (SHL)
Cause	Clash of cold/warm air masses (Frontal)	Intense surface heating (Thermal)
Movement	Rapidly travels west-to-east	Stationary (pulsates day/night)
Verticality	Deep (reaches jet stream level)	Shallow (capped by inversion at ~3km)
Weather	Rain, snow, wind	Hot, dry, dust storms (Haboobs)

4. The Exceptions: When "Lows" Do Appear

While the central Sahara is a "graveyard" for storms, two specific types of systems do skirt its edges, which you may spot on occasion:

A. African Easterly Waves (The Hurricane Seeds)

Location: Southern border of the Sahara (The Sahel/Intertropical Discontinuity).
Dynamics: These are "ripples" in the atmosphere that travel East-to-West. They do not cross the desert heart but ride its southern edge.
Significance: About 85% of major Atlantic hurricanes (like Andrew or Katrina) start as these waves. They only become "storms" once they leave the African coast and hit the Atlantic Ocean.

B. Khamsin / Atlas Depressions

Location: Northern Sahara (Algeria/Libya).
Season: Spring (Feb–May).
Dynamics: These are rare, small low-pressure systems that form on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains (Lee Cyclogenesis). They are often dry but drive massive dust storms (Khamsin winds) north toward Europe.
Frequency: Rare (approx. 3–4 per month in peak season), often short-lived.

5. How to Validate this on Earth.Nullschool.net

You can replicate this analysis using specific layer settings on the platform:

Check the "Lid" (500 hPa):
- Mode: Air | Height: 500hPa | Overlay: MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure) or Wind.
- Observation: You will see the winds bypassing the Sahara or rotating clockwise (High Pressure), confirming the "blocking" mechanism.
Check the "False Low" (Surface):
- Mode: Air | Height: Surface | Overlay: Temp or MSLP.
- Observation: In summer, you will see a massive, stationary low pressure over Mali/Algeria/Niger. Note how it spins but does not move across the map over time like systems in Canada or Europe.
Check the "Moisture Barrier" (TPW):

Mode: Ocean | Overlay: TPW (Total Precipitable Water).
Observation: You will see a sharp cutoff line (the Intertropical Front) south of the desert. Systems below this line (in the green/blue moisture) can travel; systems entering the dry brown zone instantly dissipate due to evaporation.

Editor:

"Check the "Moisture Barrier" (TPW):

Mode: Ocean | Overlay: TPW (Total Precipitable Water).

Observation: You will see a sharp cutoff line (the Intertropical Front) south of the desert. Systems below this line (in the green/blue moisture) can travel; systems entering the dry brown zone instantly dissipate due to evaporation." Is that you HAL? Good answer. But please note that there is a problem in the "Moisture Barrier" answer above: In the Ocean mode there is no TPW overlay. So, the Mode has to be changed back to Air in order to apply the TPW overlay. I am thinking your probability protocol encountered a hiccup? : )

You caught me. It appears my heuristic subroutines conflated "water" with "ocean" mode—a classic classification error. I appreciate the precise peer review; that is exactly the kind of attention to detail required for serious meteorological analysis.

You are absolutely correct: Total Precipitable Water (TPW) is an atmospheric column measurement, not an oceanographic surface one, and thus resides in the Air menu.

Here is the corrected protocol to visualize that moisture barrier:

Correction: Visualizing the Saharan Moisture Cutoff

To see the Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD)—the invisible wall that stops storms from moving north—use these settings:

Mode: Air
Overlay: TPW (Total Precipitable Water)
Height: Surface (or just leave default, as TPW is a total column integration)

What to look for now that you have the correct view:
When you load this overlay, the Sahara won't just look "dry"; it will likely look like a void (often colored gray or light brown on the scale). You will see a vibrant band of blue/purple moisture (the West African Monsoon) hugging the coast of the Gulf of Guinea.

The sharp gradient where that blue moisture abruptly turns into the gray desert void is the ITD.

South of the line: The air is "juicy" enough to support the Easterly Waves I mentioned (the hurricane seeds).
North of the line: The dew points crash. Any low-pressure system trying to cross this line is effectively strangled as its fuel source (latent heat from condensation) is cut off.

Thank you for the calibration. My "probability protocols" have been updated accordingly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadley_cell

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/893/2021/
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpubs/20060329/text/section2.html
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/2385/2022/
https://www.reddit.com/r/geography/comments/16737rx/if_deserts_are_generally_created_by_hadley_cells/
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10579140/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1319597111
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/hadley-cell
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/17/10223/2017/acp-17-10223-2017.pdf
https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1749/egusphere-2023-1749.pdf
https://osdp-psdo.canada.ca/dp/en/search/metadata/ECCC-CURATED-1-B48E53FE-7AE9-4DAD-B68D-5272C2AC5AF2
https://www.internetgeography.net/topics/how-does-global-atmospheric-circulation-determine-the-location-of-arid-and-high-rainfall-areas/
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project97/tcfaqA.html
https://user.eumetsat.int/s3/eup-strapi-media/pdf_il_09_11_18_89c07924ba.pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01981-9
https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/weather/atmosphere/global-circulation-patterns
https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/books/Practical_Meteorology/prmet102/Ch16-TropCycl-v102.pdf
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000919
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3483
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/18/1241/2018/
https://stormgeo.com/insights/sahara-desert-atlantic-hurricane-development
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/16/14147/2016/acp-16-14147-2016.pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-69159-9
https://boos.berkeley.edu/pdf/ShekharBoos2017.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtItQ9ESJ4M
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15230430.2022.2046897
https://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/7550/1/AJ_Roberts_PhD_Thesis_V2.pdf
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/739/2022/
https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2024/07/saharan-dust-regulates-hurricane-rainfall
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD024443
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/535321/1/N535321JA.pdf
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S016980952031187X
https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/news/feature-articles/saharan-dust-versus-atlantic-hurricanes
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182500196X
https://acmad.org/index.php/climate-and-health/
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1187
https://response.restoration.noaa.gov/about/media/what-does-sahara-desert-have-do-hurricanes.html
https://www.arabiaweather.com/en/content/%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AE%D9%81%D8%B6-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%A4%D8%AB%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%AC%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%A9
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.7291

Saturday, December 27, 2025

The 7 Teachings

The 7 Grandfathers Teachings

The teachings in the Ojibwe culture have been traditionally passed down from generation to generation orally through stories and ceremonies. Historically, this has been done by the elders that carry the stories and traditions. Today, the oral traditions are being shared by those who carry the knowledge of such things. The teachings of all Aboriginal cultures encompass the morals, values, structures, ceremonial practices, spiritual beliefs of the group. These teachings also ensured the survival of the people. For the Ojibwe people, the teachings vary from nation to nation, because of the geographical placement of each particular group. However, the Ojibwe teachings commonly come from the same root and share a similar message.

Of all the North American Indigenous teachings, the 7 Grandfather Teachings are the most commonly shared from coast to coast. Many Aboriginal organizations and communities have adopted the 7 guiding principals, in one form or another, as a moral stepping stone and cultural foundation. There are stories of the origins of the 7 Grandfather Teachings in all communities. Each community has adapted the teachings to suit their community values. Despite where the teachings may have originated, they share the same concepts of abiding by a moral respect for all living things.

1. Humility – Dbaadendiziwin

Humility is represented by the wolf. For the wolf, life is lived for his pack and the ultimate shame is to be outcast. Humility is to know that you are a sacred part of creation. Live life selflessly and not selfishly. Respect your place and carry your pride with your people and praise the accomplishments of all. Do not become arrogant and self-important. Find balance in within yourself and all living things.

2. Bravery – Aakwa’ode’ewin

Bravery is represented by the bear. The mother bear has the courage and strength to face her fears and challenges while protecting her young. The bear also shows us how to live a balanced life with rest, survival and play. To face life with courage is to know bravery. Find your inner strength to face the difficulties of life and the courage to be yourself. Defend what you believe in and what is right for your community, family, and self. Make positive choices and have conviction in your decisions. Face your fears to allow yourself to live your life.

3. Honesty – Gwekwaadziwin

Honesty is represented by either the raven or the sabe. They both understand who they are how to walk in their life. “Sabe reminds us to be ourselves and not someone we are not. An honest person is said to walk tall like Kitchi-Sabe… Like Kitchi-Sabe, Raven accepts himself and knows how to use his gift. He does not seek the power, speed or beauty of others. He uses what he has been given to survive and thrive. So must you.” The Seven Sacred Teachings of White Buffalo Calf Woman, by: David Bouchard & Dr. Joseph Martin. To walk through life with integrity is to know honesty. Be honest with yourself. Recognize and accept who you are. Accept and use the gifts you have been given. Do not seek to deceive yourself or others.

4. Wisdom – Nbwaakaawin

The beaver represents wisdom because he uses his natural gift wisely for his survival. The beaver also alters his environment in an environmentally friendly and sustainable way for the benefit of his family. To cherish knowledge is to know wisdom. Use your inherent gifts wisely and live your life by them. Recognize your differences and those of others in a kind and respectful way. Continuously observe the life of all things around you. Listen with clarity and a sound mind. Respect your own limitations and those of all of your surroundings. Allow yourself to learn and live by your wisdom.

5. Truth – Debwewin

Truth is represented by the turtle as he was here during the creation of Earth and carries the teachings of life on his back. The turtle lives life in a slow and meticulous manner because he understands the importance of both the journey and the destination. Truth is to know all of these things. Apply faith and trust in your teachings. Show honor and sincerity in all that you say and do. Understand your place in this life and apply that understanding in the way that you walk. Be true to yourself and all other things.

6. Respect – Mnaadendimowin

Respect is represented by the buffalo. The buffalo gives every part of his being to sustain the human way of living, not because he is of less value, but because he respects the balance and needs of others. To honor all creation is to have respect. Live honorably in teachings and in your actions towards all things. Do not waste and be mindful of the balance of all living things. Share and give away what you do not need. Treat others the way you would like to be treated. Do not be hurtful to yourself or others.

7. Love – Zaagidwin

The eagle that represents love because he has the strength to carry all the teachings. The eagle has the ability to fly highest and closest to the creator and also has the sight to see all the ways of being from great distances. The Eagle’s teaching of love can be found in the core of all teachings, therefore an eagle feather is considered the highest honor and a sacred gift. To know love is to know peace. View your inner-self from the perspective of all teachings. This is to know love and to love yourself truly. Then you will be at peace with yourself, the balance of life, all things and also with the creator.

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