Global Oil Deliveries: A Comprehensive Report (March 2026)

Executive Summary

Global oil markets have entered a period of unprecedented disruption. After a year in which supply grew faster than demand — with global output rising by approximately 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and forecast to increase by another 2.5 million bpd in 2026 to an average of 108.7 million bpd — the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026 has thrown delivery flows into crisis. Approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply, or roughly 20 million barrels per day, normally transits this narrow waterway. The disruption has forced Gulf producers into massive production cuts, sent Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time in four years, and reshaped global shipping routes virtually overnight.[1][2][3][4][5]

This report examines the current state of oil deliveries from every major producing region, including sanctioned exporters Iran and Venezuela, the impact of the Hormuz crisis, and the critical maritime chokepoints that underpin global energy trade.

Global Supply and Demand Landscape

Supply Growth Outpacing Demand (Pre-Crisis)

Before the Hormuz crisis erupted, the global oil market was already trending toward surplus. The IEA projected global supply growth of 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and 2.5 million bpd in 2026. Non-OPEC+ producers, led by the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, were expected to contribute around 1.3 million bpd of that 2026 increase.[2][1]

OPEC forecast global oil demand growth of 1.38 million bpd in 2026, bringing total demand to 106.5 million bpd, with most growth expected from non-OECD nations, particularly China, other Asian countries, and the Middle East. The IEA's more conservative estimate pegged 2026 demand growth at 770,000 bpd. OPEC+ had paused output hikes for Q1 2026 after having released around 2.9 million bpd into the market since April 2025.[6][7][2]

Top Importers

Five countries account for more than 60% of global crude oil imports:[8]

Rank	Country	Import Value (2025)	Share of Global Imports
1	China	$324.6B	24.6%
2	United States	$174.4B	13.2%
3	India	$143.3B	10.8%
4	South Korea	$85.4B	6.5%
5	Japan	$71.9B	5.4%

Asia dominates global oil demand, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea together accounting for nearly 50% of global crude imports. This Asian concentration makes the Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Malacca especially critical to global energy security.[8]

Major Oil Exporters and Delivery Flows

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia remains the world's largest crude oil exporter, with exports valued at $210.6 billion in 2023. In February 2026, Saudi crude shipments surged to 7.3 million bpd — the highest level since April 2023 — as Riyadh ramped up production as a contingency against Iranian supply disruptions.[9][10][11]

However, the Hormuz crisis has severely constrained Saudi deliveries. Before the conflict, approximately 6 million bpd of Saudi crude transited the Strait of Hormuz. With the strait effectively closed, Saudi Arabia has been rerouting flows through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which saw loadings average 2.2 million bpd in early March 2026. Aramco has stated the pipeline can handle up to 7 million bpd total, with 5 million bpd allocated for export. Despite this, the kingdom has been forced to cut production by an estimated 2 to 2.5 million bpd due to storage constraints.[12][13]

Russia

Russia exported approximately 238 million tons of crude oil in 2025 (about 4.8 million bpd), essentially flat year-over-year. The most striking feature of Russian oil trade is its extreme geographic reorientation: 80% of all Russian oil now goes to China and India, compared to massive pre-war flows to Europe. Exports to Europe collapsed from 175 million tons per year to just 25 million tons.[14]

Russia set a new record for Baltic Sea crude oil exports in January 2026, shipping 12.7 million tons from Baltic ports — surpassing the prior record of 11.8 million tons set in October 2025. Nearly half (47.7%) of those volumes were transported by tankers under Western sanctions. Russia's December 2025 oil export revenues totaled $11.4 billion, with higher volumes offsetting lower prices.[15][16]

Despite U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil from October 2025, new entities (MorExport, RusExport, NNK) have emerged to manage Russian exports, collectively handling around 1 million bpd of crude and fuels. India's recent pivot away from Russian crude — prompted by U.S.-India trade talks — has deepened Russia's dependence on China as its primary market, and Russian crude is now offered at discounts exceeding $11 per barrel below Brent.[2][14]

United States

The U.S. exported an average of 4.0 million bpd of crude oil in 2025, a 3% decline from 2024 — the first annual drop in four years — even as domestic production hit a record high. The decrease was driven primarily by reduced shipments to Europe (down 7%) and Asia.[17]

Europe remained the largest destination for U.S. crude, a position it gained after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine forced European refiners to replace Russian supplies. China sharply reduced purchases of U.S. crude as Chinese refiners turned to discounted Middle Eastern and Russian supplies. However, India increased U.S. crude imports by about 90,000 bpd, Japan by roughly 80,000 bpd, and the Netherlands by about 80,000 bpd. A notable new buyer was Nigeria, which boosted imports from 40,000 bpd to around 110,000 bpd.[17]

Canada

Canadian crude oil exports from the West Coast nearly doubled in 2025, reaching 24.4 million metric tonnes — a 95% increase from the year prior — driven by the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which came online in May 2024 and nearly tripled capacity to 890,000 bpd.[18][19]

Around two-thirds of all Canadian crude exports from the Trans Mountain system were destined for the Asia-Pacific in 2025, with the balance heading to the U.S. west coast. China quickly became the second-largest destination for Canadian crude after the U.S., with C$5.9 billion exported between May 2024 and September 2025. Other new customers included Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and India. Prime Minister Mark Carney has set a goal to double Canadian exports to non-U.S. customers amid the ongoing U.S.-Canada trade dispute.[20][21][18]

Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait

Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait are among the major Gulf producers most impacted by the 2026 Hormuz crisis:

• Iraq has reduced oil production by approximately 2.9 million bpd, with cuts potentially exceeding 3 million bpd as storage options dwindle. Iraq's December 2025 output was 4.1 million bpd.[22][13][6]
• UAE has lowered output by 500,000 to 800,000 bpd. It operates a 1.5 million bpd pipeline to the port of Fujairah on its western coast, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.[23][13]
• Kuwait has cut production by about 500,000 bpd after declaring reductions at both oil fields and refineries in response to Iranian threats against shipping.[13][23]

JPMorgan estimated that Kuwait had roughly 18 days of storage capacity before needing to scale back, while the UAE had about 22 days, calculated from the onset of the conflict.[24]

Iran: Oil Deliveries Under Sanctions and War

2025 Export Performance

Despite multi-layered sanctions, Iran maintained substantial oil exports throughout 2025. Monthly averages reached over 2 million bpd in peak months, with October 2025 representing the year's highest at an estimated 2.15 million bpd (66.8 million barrels for the month). Total 2025 revenue hit approximately $45.7 billion, with China purchasing the vast majority at discounted prices.[25][26]

Iran's export destinations in 2025 were highly concentrated:[27][25]

Destination	Role	Share/Value
China	Primary end-market buyer	90.6% of exports[25] / $721.6M recorded[27]
UAE	Transshipment and trading hub	6.7%[25] / $4.4B recorded value[27]
Oman	Regional refining gateway	$463M[27]
Afghanistan	Domestic fuel reliance	$261M[27]
Pakistan	Energy shortfall supplement	$198M[27]

The discrepancy between tanker-tracking data (showing China receiving ~90% of physical oil) and trade data (showing UAE as the largest recorded recipient at $4.4 billion) reflects the UAE's central role as a transshipment, blending, and re-export hub for Iranian crude. Iran's exports relied heavily on "shadow fleet" tankers that actively conceal their activities to evade sanctions.[28][27]

Sanctions Escalation and the Snapback

The UN "snapback" of sanctions on September 27, 2025, under Security Council Resolution 2231, added a new layer of international restrictions. However, analysts widely assessed these measures as unlikely to significantly reduce Iran's export volumes, since Iran's formal oil trade had already been rendered marginal by earlier U.S. and EU sanctions. Tehran maintained resilience through subsidized prices, shadow fleets, regional pipelines, and established buyer networks.[29][30]

Early 2026: Sharp Decline

Iran's oil exports declined sharply at the start of 2026. Daily discharges of Iranian crude at Chinese ports fell to 1.13 million bpd, down from an average of around 1.4 million bpd in 2025. Unsold Iranian crude accumulating at sea nearly tripled over the past year to more than 170 million barrels — a sign that shipments are becoming harder to sell or deliver.[31]

The IEA reported Iranian exports had dropped to around 1.6 million bpd in November and December 2025, and the U.S.-Israeli military strikes beginning February 28, 2026, have effectively eliminated Iran as a functioning exporter for the duration of the conflict.[3][1]

Venezuela: Sanctions, Regime Change, and Oil

Venezuela's oil exports remained resilient through much of 2025, with November shipments reaching 967,000 bpd of crude, fuel oil, and methanol. China was the primary buyer at 613,000 bpd, while the United States imported 150,000 bpd through a special license allowing American energy companies (notably Chevron) to export Venezuelan crude under debt-for-oil conditions.[32]

However, the Trump administration's December 2025 blockade of sanctioned vessels reduced Venezuelan exports to 500,000 bpd from 952,000 bpd in November. Following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, U.S. officials moved to ease some sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector to facilitate a $2 billion oil supply deal and an ambitious $100 billion reconstruction plan for the country's oil industry. If investment materializes, Venezuela's production could rise to 1.5 million bpd by 2035.[33][34][35]

Non-OPEC Supply Growth: The Americas

Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are expected to account for roughly half of the 0.8 million bpd increase in non-OPEC crude production in 2026.[36][37]

• Brazil: Crude output surged past 4.0 million bpd for the first time in October 2025, supported by new FPSO start-ups. The EIA forecasts Brazilian crude production will average about 4.0 million bpd in 2026.[36]
• Guyana: Production averaged an estimated 750,000 bpd in 2025 and exceeded 900,000 bpd in November 2025. The Uaru project in 2026 is expected to add 250,000 bpd, helping Guyana surpass 1.0 million bpd by 2027.[36]
• Argentina: Vaca Muerta shale continues to drive growth, contributing meaningfully to South America's role as the largest source of new non-OPEC+ conventional supply through 2030.[37]

Africa

Africa contributes about 8% of global oil supply. Nigeria and Angola are the continent's leading producers, with combined output targeted at 3.39 million bpd in 2025. Nigeria crossed the 1.5 million bpd threshold in December 2024 — its highest level in four years — and led African crude exports to the United States, shipping 33.23 million barrels worth $2.57 billion between January and August 2025.[38][39][40][41]

Maritime Chokepoints and Delivery Routes

Nearly 70% of the world's oil demand travels through narrow maritime passages. The seven key chokepoints that sustain global oil deliveries are highly vulnerable to disruption:[42]

Chokepoint	Daily Flow (H1 2025)	Share of Global Oil	Key Risk
Strait of Malacca	23.2 million bpd	~22%	Piracy; China-dependency
Strait of Hormuz	20.9 million bpd	~20%	Iran conflict (closed Feb 2026)
Cape of Good Hope	9.1 million bpd	—	Rerouting hub; longer transits
Suez Canal	4.9 million bpd	—	Houthi attacks since 2023
Bab al-Mandeb	4.2 million bpd	—	Houthi attacks; Red Sea risk

Sources:[43][42]

The Hormuz Crisis

The crisis that began on February 28, 2026, following joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran — including the killing of Iran's supreme leader — triggered retaliatory attacks on vessels and a de facto Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic dropped first by approximately 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait, before falling to near zero. Around 300 oil tankers remained stranded in the strait as of early March.[24][3]

Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8, 2026, for the first time in four years, and peaked at $126 per barrel before retreating. On March 11, prices plunged after reports emerged that the U.S. was considering military action to seize control of the strait and restore open access. Saudi Aramco has described the situation as "the greatest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has encountered".[44][45][3]

Alternative Routes Under Strain

Gulf producers are scrambling to use bypass infrastructure:

• Saudi Arabia: East-West Pipeline to Yanbu (up to 7 million bpd capacity, with 5 million bpd for export)[46][12]
• UAE: Habshan-Fujairah pipeline (1.5 million bpd, expandable to 1.8 million bpd)[23][46]
• Suez Canal/Red Sea: Already under strain from Houthi attacks since late 2023, oil shipments averaged 4.9 million bpd in early 2025[42]
• Cape of Good Hope: Flows increased from 7.9 million bpd in 2020 to 9.1 million bpd in 2025 as shipping routes shifted to avoid Red Sea disruptions[43]

Even at full capacity, these alternatives cannot fully compensate for the loss of Hormuz transit volumes.[4]

Price Impact and Market Outlook

The combined effect of the Hormuz closure, Gulf production cuts, and market uncertainty has driven extreme oil price volatility. Brent crude rose from $72.50 on the eve of the conflict to above $114 in early March, with an intraday high of $84.57 on March 3 before a brief retreat, then spiking above $109 as the crisis deepened.[47][48][45]

Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 2026 Brent forecast to $76 per barrel, anticipating a gradual normalization as Iranian military capacity degrades. JPMorgan warned that a Hormuz restriction lasting 3 to 4 weeks could push Brent above $100 per barrel. OPEC+ members agreed on March 1, 2026, to add 206,000 bpd to output from April, though this is a fraction of the volumes lost to the crisis.[48][49][47]

Conclusion

The global oil delivery system is facing its most severe test since the 1970s energy crises. While 2025 was characterized by growing supply, shifting trade routes (Russia to Asia, Canada to the Pacific, U.S. crude retreating from China), and resilient sanctioned exporters (Iran and Venezuela), the 2026 Hormuz crisis has fundamentally altered the landscape. Gulf producers have collectively cut millions of barrels per day of production, alternative export routes are at or near capacity, and prices have surged. The crisis underscores the extreme fragility of a global oil delivery network that depends on a handful of narrow maritime passages — and the outsized role that geopolitical conflict plays in determining who delivers oil, to whom, and at what price.

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