Drone-Guided Mortar Attack Technology: State of the Field (2026)

 

Executive Summary

Drone-guided mortar attack technology has undergone a dramatic transformation since 2022, driven primarily by the conflict in Ukraine. What began as ad hoc adaptations — soldiers duct-taping mortar shells to consumer drones — has matured into a layered ecosystem of precision-guided munitions, AI-autonomous swarm platforms, and purpose-built drone-mortar hybrid systems. The technology now spans the full spectrum from improvised devices used by non-state actors to advanced GPS/INS-guided 120 mm kits from state defense industries. Several nations, including South Korea, are even replacing traditional mortar units entirely with drone equivalents.

Background: Why Combine Drones and Mortars?

The mortar has long been the infantryman's indirect fire weapon — portable, relatively cheap, and capable of arcing rounds over terrain obstacles. Its key weakness is accuracy: a standard 120 mm mortar at maximum range has a Circular Error Probable (CEP) of approximately 136 meters, meaning only 50% of rounds fall within that radius of the target. Even advanced precision-pointing systems reduce this to only about 76 meters CEP.[1]

Drones address this limitation in two interrelated ways:

• Targeting: A drone with an electro-optical or thermal camera can loiter over a target and relay precise GPS coordinates in real time, dramatically compressing the fire mission cycle from minutes to seconds.[2][3]
• Delivery: Drones can carry and release mortar shells (or purpose-built equivalents) directly over a target, effectively reducing CEP to near-zero for the delivery vector — limited only by the munition's terminal guidance capability.

This combination matters because it converts an area-fire weapon into a precision-strike tool without the cost of purpose-built precision munitions.[4]

Technology Architecture: Four Approaches

1. Drone-Spotting for Ground-Based Mortars

The simplest and most widely deployed integration is using drones as aerial forward observers. A reconnaissance or FPV drone locates a target and transmits real-time GPS coordinates to a ground mortar team. This is the approach validated by the U.S. Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade in a live-fire exercise in Germany in May 2025, where UAS platforms "identified, observed, and relayed target data for live mortar fire missions" and helped validate the Army's Fires Digital Kill Chain — a networked targeting and engagement architecture. The exercise was described as only the second live-fire event involving FPV drones conducted by U.S. forces and a "significant milestone in the integration of emerging technologies on the modern battlefield".[2]

Both Russia and Ukraine have employed this pairing extensively. Pairing unarmed drones with artillery "dramatically accelerates targeting timelines," according to the Hudson Institute's 2026 analysis of the conflict.[3]

2. Drone-Dropped Unguided Mortar Shells

Baba Yaga drone
The dominant tactic in the Ukraine conflict has been adapting heavy multirotor drones to carry and drop standard mortar rounds — typically 60 mm, 81 mm, or 82 mm shells — directly over enemy positions. Ukraine's so-called Baba Yaga class of heavy bomber drones (encompassing models such as the Vampire, R18, Kazhan, and Nemesis) are large multirotors with six or more rotors, capable of carrying payloads up to 15 kg. They are equipped with thermal and optical cameras for nighttime operations and deliver "mortar-sized munitions," including fragmentation munitions, shaped charges, and anti-tank mines.[5][6]

The Baba Yaga platform proved to be the most lethal strike platform on the Ukrainian battlefield in 2025, executing 2.5 million missions and outperforming all other bomber-class drones. Russia developed its own analogue — the "Alexander Nevsky" — capable of carrying up to 100 kg of payload, including fifteen 82 mm mortar rounds, with a range of 20–25 km at a 50 kg load.[7][5]
A key limitation of this approach is accuracy: without terminal guidance, a dropped shell is still subject to ballistic dispersion, though the visual targeting loop of the drone operator compensates significantly compared to ground-launched fire.

3. Purpose-Built Drone-Mortar Hybrids

The most innovative development is the reverse-engineering of the mortar concept entirely — designing an FPV drone around the mortar shell rather than the other way around.

Ukraine's UB60D, developed by Ukrainian Armor, integrates a 60 mm mortar mine body directly as the drone airframe, combining the warhead and control system into a single unit. Weighing 1,150 grams, it has a striking range of up to 2.5 km when mortar-launched, or can be deployed as a drone for immediate direct-strike missions with no assembly required. It underwent combat testing in January 2025 in the Pokrovsk sector and entered serial production in a configuration of 250 strike drones plus a ground control station.[8]

South Korea's Nearthlab went further with the XAiDEN — a next-generation AI-driven swarm attack drone designed with a 60 mm mortar shell as its default internal payload. XAiDEN operates in squadrons of 10 drones, requiring only one leader drone with communications capability; the rest operate fully autonomously in GPS- or comms-denied environments. A single operator can manage up to 10 such squadrons simultaneously (100 drones total). This represents a fundamental doctrinal shift: the mortar shell becomes the warhead of an autonomous swarm system rather than a tube-fired projectile.[9][10]

4. Guidance Kits: Converting Stockpiled Rounds into Precision Munitions

At the higher-end conventional side, several nations have developed bolt-on guidance kits that convert existing mortar inventory into precision-guided munitions — and can be paired with drone delivery or designation.

Serbia unveiled a guidance kit at the PARTNER 2025 exhibition in Belgrade that retrofits standard 120 mm mortar rounds with GPS/INS guidance. After release from a drone, the round deploys wings to extend range and alter trajectory. Target coordinates can be pre-programmed or updated in real time via an electro-optical UAV payload, enabling engagement against both fixed and moving targets. The system explicitly supports carriage and release from multiple drone types.[4][11]

Israel's Iron Sting (Elbit Systems) represents the mature form of this concept — a guided mortar using both laser designation and GPS navigation, deployed operationally during the early phase of the Israel-Hamas war by the Maglan Unit of the IDF Commando Brigade. GPS guidance alone reduces the 120 mm CEP from 136 meters to under 10 meters (the U.S. Army's Accelerated Precision Mortar Initiative achieved <10 m CEP, or roughly 32 feet).[12][1][13]

The early precedent for drone-dropped GPS-guided mortar rounds came from a 2012 U.S. Army/General Dynamics trial. The Air Drop Mortar (ADM) system successfully released GPS-guided 81 mm rounds from a TigerShark drone at 7,000 feet altitude, with all test rounds landing within 7 meters of target. This work demonstrated in principle what Ukraine's battlefield empiricism confirmed a decade later.[14]

Precision and Accuracy Comparison

System / Approach	CEP (approximate)	Guidance Method	Drone Role
Standard 120mm mortar (unguided)	~136 m at max range[1]	None	None
Advanced ground-pointed mortar	~76 m[1]	Precision pointing system	Optional spotting
GPS-guided mortar (APMI/Iron Sting)	<10 m[1][13]	GPS + INS (+ laser)	Spotting/designation
Drone-dropped unguided shell (Baba Yaga)	~5–20 m (operator-guided)	Operator visual/thermal	Delivery vehicle
Drone-hybrid (UB60D)	~1–5 m	Operator FPV guidance	IS the weapon
Autonomous AI swarm (XAiDEN)	<5 m (estimated)	Onboard AI + optical	Autonomous delivery

Doctrinal Shift: Replacing Mortars Entirely

The South Korean Army announced in late 2024 its decision to phase out 60 mm and 81 mm mortars below the battalion level entirely, replacing them with FPV and drone strike systems. South Korean Army Chief of Staff Park Ahn-soo confirmed the plan to establish "Dronebot Companies" capable of engaging targets at up to 10 km — well beyond the 2–3 km range of the mortars being retired. The Ministry of Defence approved the plan, though full implementation will take several years.[15]

Ukrainian commanders maintain a more nuanced view. Commanders from Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade explicitly stated that FPV drones and mortars are "different weapons" and that FPV drones cannot fully replace mortars — primarily because a mortar will fire in snow, rain, and dense fog, while drones lose effectiveness in degraded weather. "There is no panacea, and success is achieved through synergy between different service branches, different means, and, of course, having good tactics," one Ukrainian commander concluded. Ukraine itself made approximately 2.4 million shells in 2024, with the majority produced for mortars, underscoring their continued battlefield value.[16][17]

The U.S. Army's stance, as articulated in its 2024 Munitions Modernization strategy, is to pursue complementary integration: leveraging existing munitions (including mortars) for drone-dropping operations in the short term while investing in purpose-built drone munitions. The Army identifies three near-term approaches: adapting existing grenades, mortars, and mines for drone-drop; 3D-printed drone-specific munitions; and improvised payloads.[18]

Non-State Actor Proliferation

The convergence of cheap commercial drones, accessible GPS technology, and abundant stockpiled mortar rounds has lowered the barrier to entry for non-state actors. The Islamic State pioneered weaponized commercial drone use; Hamas employed drones in the October 7, 2023 attack; and the Houthis have developed a sophisticated multi-drone air force that incorporates drone-delivered explosives as a central military strategy.[19][20]

A 2025 analysis from the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point noted that "the convergence of cheaper commercial drones, GPS-guided flights, autonomous swarms, and DIY payload capabilities have amplified the asymmetric effects of these systems," with the primary concern being that drone swarms could dramatically multiply kinetic strike capacity for non-state groups. Iran demonstrated the scale of coordinated drone barrages with 170 drones in its April 14, 2024 attack on Israel — a template non-state proxies are studying closely.[19]

Counter-Measures and the Technology Arms Race

The proliferation of drone-mortar systems has accelerated investment in Counter-UAS (C-UAS) systems. Key countermeasures include:

• Electronic warfare/jamming: Disrupts drone control links and GPS guidance. Ukraine's Baba Yaga drones have begun incorporating infrared counter-measures and Starlink communications to circumvent jamming.[21]
• Kinetic interception: The U.S. Army is actively exploring using existing mortar and artillery rounds to shoot down drones, including a 30 mm XM121 High Explosive Proximity round and modified indirect-fire munitions — completing a symmetrical irony where mortars fight drones that deliver mortars.[22]
• AI-driven multi-layered defense: Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, and others are developing C-UAS architectures that fuse radar, electro-optical, and infrared sensors to detect and engage swarms, with AI-driven battle management systems making real-time threat prioritization decisions.[23][24]
• High-Power Microwave (HPM) systems: Capable of disabling multiple drones simultaneously, particularly effective against swarms, with some systems being scaled toward 12 kW mobile configurations by mid-2026.[11]

The core challenge is cost asymmetry: a drone dropping a mortar shell may cost $500–$2,000 total, while the interceptor munition or system can cost orders of magnitude more. This drives the search for "cost-on-cost" solutions that can defeat cheap drone-mortar systems without expending expensive missiles.[22]

Emerging Frontiers

AI Autonomy: South Korea's XAiDEN represents the vanguard of fully autonomous drone-mortar systems — identifying, tracking, and engaging targets without human input in denied environments. AeroVironment's Red Dragon loitering munition similarly uses visual navigation and optical seekers to find its own targets without GPS, a significant leap in autonomous lethality.[9][10][25]

Swarm coordination: The GAO's 2023 Science and Technology report identified fully autonomous decentralized drone swarms — coordinating among thousands of units with no human intervention — as the most concerning trajectory. Israel's 2021 Gaza operation reportedly marked the first use of AI-directed drone swarms in combat.[26]

Guided kit retrofitting at scale: Serbia's 120 mm guidance kit exemplifies a cost-effective approach for nations with large conventional mortar inventories — rapidly converting stockpiles into precision assets without new production. This model is replicable globally and reduces the capital cost threshold for precision indirect fire.[4]

Hybrid drone-mortar economics: The UB60D and XAiDEN approaches demonstrate that designing around the mortar shell as a warhead produces systems with minimal operator training requirements, high mobility, rapid deployment, and low logistical footprint — all critical operational advantages.[10][8]

Conclusion

Drone-guided mortar technology in 2026 is not a single system but a spectrum — from a soldier using a $200 consumer drone to spot for a ground mortar crew, to autonomous AI swarms internally carrying 60 mm rounds and engaging moving targets without human input. The Ukraine conflict provided the forcing function that accelerated years of theoretical development into battlefield-validated doctrine in months. The technology is proliferating rapidly across state and non-state actors alike, is rendering traditional mortar employment tactically vulnerable (drones on the front line make static mortar positions immediately targetable), and is driving a parallel arms race in countermeasures. The fundamental direction is clear: the mortar is being absorbed into the drone ecosystem, transforming indirect fire from a crew-served tube weapon into a networked, autonomous, and increasingly precise aerial delivery system.

References

• Picatinny fields first precision-guided mortars to troops in Afghanistan - Current CEP for 120 mm mortars at their maximum range is 136 meters. Mortars with the most advanced ...
• 173rd Conducts Multi-Functional Live Fire Exercise in Germany - Spc. Daniel Calvillo assigned to the 1st Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade,...
• The Impact of Drones on the Battlefield: Lessons of the Russia ... - For example, both Russia and Ukraine have paired unarmed drones with artillery, which dramatically a...
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• Ukraine's 'Dreaded' Baba Yaga Bomber Drone Now Has A Russian ... - These are five TM-62 anti-tank mines or fifteen 82 mm mortar mines. ... The first flight of the dron...
• Baba Yaga (aircraft) - Baba Yaga is the Russian nickname for a number of Ukrainian heavy bomber drones used in the conflict...
• Ukraine's Vampire combat drone, also known as Baba Yaga, was ... - Ukraine's Vampire combat drone, also known as Baba Yaga, was the most lethal strike platform on the ...
• Why Ukrainian Armor Turned a 60mm Mine into the UB60D FPV ... - Ukrainian Armor has engineered an FPV drone based on a standard 60 mm mortar shell, significantly en...
• South Korea Introduces Mortar-Carrying AI Drone - The Defense Post - South Korea's Nearthlab has launched a next-gen attack drone that carries mortar shells and coordina...
• Nearthlab Launches Mortar-carrying AI Drone - Newsroom - XAiDEN is a next-generation swarm autonomous flight attack drone that performs dynamic missions such...
• Serbia unveils GPS-guided mortar kit at Partner 2025 - LinkedIn - 10 cm beam spot at 1 km for precise strikes 👁️ Mid-wave IR camera detects drones up to 5 km Truck-mo...
• The IDF's Most Precise GPS-Powered Mortar: The Iron Sting - The Iron Sting is a guided mortar that utilizes lasers and GPS technology to hit urban targets witho...
• Laser detection and GPS guide this new mortar to its target with ... - As the US Army discovered in the 2010s, putting GPS on a 120mm mortar round can shrink the CEP radiu...
• Drone Economics: Tiny tactical drones get dirt-cheap, GPS-guided ... - But the economics of “precision-strike” drone warfare may change very soon. ... drone armed with GPS...
• FPV Drones Elbow Out 60mm-81mm Mortars in South Korean Army - South Korea replaces mortars with FPV drones as part of military modernization efforts.
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• Enter the kill zone: Ukraine's drone-infested front slows Russian ... - Kamyshin said Ukraine made around 2.4 million of its own shells in 2024, although these were mostly ...
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• The Rising Threat of Non-State Actor Commercial Drone Use - Iran demonstrated the impact of coordinated barrage attacks with the use of 170 drones in its April ...
• ​​The Houthi Model – Non-State Actors and Multi-Drone Capabilities - Drone attacks are central to both the military and propaganda strategy of the Houthis; examining the...
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• The Army wants to use bullets, mortars, and artillery to take out small ... - There's also the potential to take some larger rounds, like indirect fire munitions designed to be l...
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• Defending against the swarm with a mobile counter-UAS architecture - Modular sensors, AI-driven response, and swarm defeat technologies are redefining how militaries con...
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• Drone Swarms: The Good, The Bad, and The Terrifying Future - “Mortar support companies were re-equipped with swarm drones which reportedly gathered intelligence,...