Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Russia's war strategy

As the war in Europe escalates, Russia’s strategy is emerging. As a major energy, food and raw materials exporter to the rest of the world a prolonged war is in Russia’s interest, compared to its opponents who are, as we know, dependent on Russian exports.

During WWII Germany was chronically short of energy, food and raw materials, playing a part in the loss of that war to allied powers. Germany’s war strategy was also fundamentally flawed as it pursued war on many fronts simultaneously.

In that war the Russians wore down the Germans and beat them on the battle front with greater human and material resources to back them.

This time around, Russia has Europe, including Germany, in a position of energy dependency and is currently restricting exports to put the squeeze on the will of Europeans to support their own governments in what is an imperial war benefiting kleptocrats on all sides of the conflict.

So, it is reasonable to assume that this policy will be pursued with increased vehemence as time goes on, including the destruction of vulnerable energy infrastructure, as can already be seen in Ukraine itself.

Western propaganda depicting Russia as a crumbling state is just wishful thinking. When really threatened, as seen in WWII, Russians stood shoulder to shoulder even if they didn’t like their government of the day.

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