|
|
Friday, March 6, 2026
Joint statement on Alberta tar-sands tailings clean up announcement.
Dust bowl mass migration during the dirty thirties
The Dust Bowl migration of the 1930s — known in Canada as the "Dirty Thirties" — was one of the largest internal migrations in North American history, displacing millions of farming families from the Great Plains due to a catastrophic combination of severe drought, destructive dust storms, and the economic collapse of the Great Depression.
Causes and Scale
The ecological disaster originated in poor soil conservation practices. Decades of deep plowing had stripped the native grasslands of the southern Great Plains, leaving exposed topsoil vulnerable to fierce prairie winds. Between 1930 and 1940, roughly 3.5 million people moved out of the Plains states, with over 86,000 migrating to California in a single year alone — surpassing even the number who flooded west during the 1849 Gold Rush.[1][2]
The "Okies" and Their Routes
Migrants were broadly called "Okies" regardless of whether they actually came from Oklahoma, with other nicknames including "Arkies" (Arkansas) and "Texies" (Texas). The epicenter states were Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado, and New Mexico, and nearly half a million Oklahomans alone abandoned their farms. Most traveled west along Route 66 — nicknamed "the mother road" — with the majority arriving in California's San Joaquin Valley and about two-fifths heading to Los Angeles.[3][1]
Peak Years and Reception
The migration began around 1935 and peaked in 1936–1938. The reception in California was often hostile. Los Angeles police briefly established a "bum blockade" in 1936 to turn away incoming migrants. Those who did arrive found migrant labor camps with poor sanitation, contaminated drinking water, and rampant disease — typhoid, tuberculosis, malaria, and pneumonia were widespread. By 1937, the federal Farm Security Administration built 10 camps to help, but these were far insufficient for the scale of need.[3][4]
Economic Context
Historians note an important nuance: the Dust Bowl and Great Depression did not trigger a completely new migration so much as accelerate an existing pattern — southern Plains families had been gradually moving westward for decades. However, because migration rates elsewhere in the U.S. dropped during the Depression, the concentrated westward flow of Plains migrants stood out dramatically. Between 300,000 and 400,000 Oklahomans, Texans, Arkansans, and Missourians ultimately settled in California during the decade.[5][6][7]
Cultural Legacy
The migration deeply reshaped California's demographic and cultural fabric, giving rise to what historians call an "Okie subculture" that persisted for generations. John Steinbeck immortalized the ordeal in The Grapes of Wrath (1939), and Dorothea Lange's photographs — including the iconic Migrant Mother — gave a lasting human face to the crisis. Losses in the Dust Bowl region reached $25 million per day by 1936 (equivalent to roughly $570 million today), underscoring the sheer economic devastation that drove families from their land.[1][6]
⁂
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_Thirties
- https://www.science.smith.edu/climatelit/the-dust-bowl/
- https://blogs.loc.gov/maps/2023/12/climate-migrants-of-the-1930s-dust-bowl/
- https://capitolmuseum.ca.gov/experiences/exhibits/the-dust-bowl-california-and-the-politics-of-hard-times/
- http://faculty.washington.edu/gregoryj/dust bowl migration.htm
- https://depts.washington.edu/moving1/dustbowl_migration.shtml
- https://depts.washington.edu/moving1/poverty.shtml
- https://www.okhistory.org/publications/enc/entry?entry=OK008
- https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-happened-during-the-dirty-thirties-or-the-dust-bowl-in-north-america.html
- https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/dust-bowl-migration/
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5673135/
- https://americanexperience.si.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/The-Great-Okie-Migration.pdf
- https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/great-depression-and-world-war-ii-1929-1945/dust-bowl/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl
- https://drought.unl.edu/dustbowl/
Record Warm Winter 2025–2026 in the Western U.S.: A Report Based on Dr. Daniel Swain's Weather West "Office Hours" livestream, March 2, 2026
Overview
Winter 2025–2026 (December 2025 – February 2026) was officially the warmest winter on record across the western United States by a wide margin, according to Dr. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist who hosts the Weather West channel . He described the margin of record-breaking warmth as "ridiculous," noting that virtually no corner of the West escaped highly anomalous temperatures .
Extent of Record Warmth
The geographic scope of the record heat was extraordinary. The zone of record-warm temperatures stretched from the central plains of Nebraska and Kansas, across the Front Range of the Rockies, through the Colorado River headwaters, the Great Basin, the Northern Rockies (including the Bitterroots, Tetons, and western Montana), and into most of California — a swath that would take approximately 20 hours to drive across at freeway speeds .
The only partial exception was California's Central Valley, where persistent tule fog suppressed daytime highs — yet even there, nighttime temperatures were warmer than average, keeping the season well above the recent climate normal . Swain used provisional data from the PRISM Climate Group, mapped by Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brett Schneider, to illustrate that the crimson-shaded (all-time record warmth) area covered the majority of the West across 131 years of instrumental records .
Temperature Anomalies
The actual temperature departures were staggering. Across the interior West — including the northern and central Rockies and the Great Basin — seasonal temperatures were more than 10°F above the 1991–2020 climate normal baseline . Critically, that baseline already incorporates 2–3°F of prior climate warming, meaning actual departures from a mid-20th-century baseline were even larger .
Precipitation Picture
Unlike temperature, precipitation varied strongly by region:
-
California: Most of the state received near-average precipitation; northeastern California and the central coast saw 125–150% of average rainfall, making it a reasonable water year for that state
-
Colorado River Basin / Utah / Arizona: Experienced both record warmth and severely below-average precipitation — some parts of Utah received under 50% of average
-
Northern Rockies: Very wet, but much precipitation fell as rain rather than snow due to record warmth
-
Pacific Northwest: Western Washington had a decent water year; western Oregon was somewhat below average
Snowpack Crisis
Snowpack across the West is in "truly dire straits" in Swain's words . Key findings as of March 1, 2026:
-
The upper Colorado River Basin snowpack is tied with or below its all-time record low for this date in a ~50-year observational record
-
Hundreds of monitoring sites across the West show red (all-time record low) or orange (second-lowest ever) snowpack readings
-
The Pacific Northwest snowpack is at roughly the 5th percentile — extremely low
-
Good news is limited to a few pockets: high elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada (up to 150% of average above ~9,000 ft) and parts of the northern Rockies at the highest elevations
The elevational pattern is telling — warmth has obliterated snowpack at low and mid elevations, while only the highest, coldest elevations retain meaningful snow .
Water Supply Implications
The warm winter effectively advanced the hydrological calendar by one season. Precipitation that would normally enter watersheds as snowmelt in spring and summer entered as rain or early melt during winter, producing spring-like soil moisture levels at the end of February . While current soil moisture is temporarily above average in some basins, this water is already gone and will not be available during the critical summer dry season .
The hardest-hit water users include:
-
Cities dependent on the Colorado River: Phoenix, Las Vegas, and communities across the Southwest
-
Agriculture throughout the southern Rockies and northern Mexico
-
Tribal nations in the Colorado Basin
-
Southern California, which relies heavily on Colorado River allocations
Wildfire Risk
While the livestream did not reach a deep dive into wildfire projections, Swain emphasized that the combination of record warmth, depleted snowpack, and early soil moisture drawdown significantly elevates wildfire risk heading into spring and summer 2026 — particularly across the Colorado Plateau and the Great Basin .
Media Coverage Critique
Swain offered a pointed critique of news coverage asymmetry: the eastern U.S. experienced a top-25 coldest winter (in about 130 years of records), which generated extensive dramatic headlines, while the singular all-time record warmth across 10–14 western states received comparatively little attention . He attributed this partly to shrinking climate journalism capacity in newsrooms, but warned that the normalization of such extreme warmth is itself a serious problem .
Short-Term Outlook
The outlook at the time of the broadcast (March 2, 2026) was "not very promising" for snowpack recovery . Swain expected snowpack in the upper Colorado and Pacific Northwest to continue declining relative to averages, with both earlier and lower peak snowpack than normal across virtually the entire West .
Monday, March 2, 2026
What is the relationship between Iran's regular army and the revolutionary guards?
Iran maintains two parallel military establishments by deliberate constitutional design: the Artesh (regular army), a conventional force that defends national sovereignty and borders, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC / Sepah-e Pasdaran), an ideological force whose constitutional mandate is to protect the Islamic Revolution and its achievements. This dual structure functions as a "coup-proofing" strategy that keeps both forces in a permanent state of managed rivalry under the Supreme Leader's authority.blog.roninsgrips+3
Origins of the Split
After the 1979 revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini distrusted the existing Imperial Army as potentially loyal to the exiled Shah. The new regime brutally purged the officer corps but chose not to dissolve the army entirely; instead, Khomeini simultaneously created the IRGC from revolutionary militias as a counterweight. The clerics saw value in keeping both organizations alive — the Artesh provided conventional military capability while the IRGC guaranteed ideological loyalty, and together they served as checks and balances against each other.mei+4
Constitutional Missions
The two forces have formally distinct roles enshrined in Iran's constitution:wikipedia+2
Artesh: Tasked with defending Iran's territorial integrity, borders, and airspace in a traditional military capacity. It is avowedly apolitical and claims loyalty to the nation rather than to any particular regime.criticalthreats+2
IRGC: Mandated under Article 150 to guard "the Revolution and its achievements." It focuses on internal security, asymmetric warfare, missile forces, and extraterritorial operations through its Quds Force. It also controls the Basij paramilitary militia.politis+2
Command Structure
Both forces ultimately answer to the Supreme Leader (currently Ali Khamenei), who serves as commander-in-chief. A Joint Armed Forces General Staff nominally coordinates them, and both commanders sit on the Supreme National Security Council, but in practice the Artesh and the IRGC retain separate chains of command, separate joint staffs, and separate ground, naval, and air branches. The Supreme Leader appoints the IRGC commander directly, reinforcing the IRGC's loyalty to the clerical leadership rather than to civilian government authorities.britannica+3
Asymmetry in Power and Resources
Despite the Artesh fielding roughly 350,000 soldiers compared to the IRGC's approximately 125,000–190,000, the IRGC holds a dominant position in virtually every dimension except heavy conventional hardware.dni+1
| Dimension | Artesh | IRGC |
|---|---|---|
| Personnel | ~350,000 | ~125,000–190,000 (plus 90,000+ Basij) |
| Mission | Territorial defense | Revolution defense, asymmetric warfare, foreign ops |
| Political access | Limited; avowedly apolitical | Direct access to Supreme Leader |
| Budget | Smaller, dependent on state allocation | Larger; vast economic holdings beyond military budget |
| Prestige/Recruitment | Lower priority for top recruits | Access to best recruits, higher prestige |
| Heavy equipment | Controls most tanks, fighter jets | Missiles, drones, naval fast-attack craft |
| Economic activity | Minimal | Extensive conglomerates, construction, oil, telecom |
aei+3
The IRGC has built a massive economic empire through construction firms, import–export monopolies, and stakes in telecom and energy, giving it financial independence well beyond its official defense budget. IRGC officers (sardar) are generally more trusted, better compensated, and more politically connected than their Artesh counterparts, who have expressed discontent at their marginalization.brookings+2
Rivalry and Cooperation
The relationship is one of institutionalized rivalry punctuated by increasing operational cooperation:blog.roninsgrips+2
Rivalry: Overlapping responsibilities, doctrinal differences, and unequal resource allocation create persistent friction. The leadership deliberately sustains this tension to prevent either force from accumulating enough power to challenge the Supreme Leader.mei+2
Cooperation: In practice, the two forces have been compelled to work together in recent decades. During the campaign against ISIS in Iraq and the Syrian civil war, Artesh ground forces and transport aircraft were placed under IRGC command for deployments around Aleppo and elsewhere. Artesh special forces advisors from the 65th Airborne Brigade were sent to Syria under the auspices of the IRGC's Quds Force.washingtoninstitute+1
Proposals to merge the two forces have surfaced periodically since the Rafsanjani presidency, but Supreme Leader Khamenei has consistently blocked them, preferring to maintain the divided structure.[brookings]
Recent Shifts
The IRGC's performance in its confrontation with Israel in 2024–25 has reportedly weakened its strategic standing, opening a window for the historically marginalized Artesh to assert greater influence. The Artesh has been reorienting itself from static border defense toward a quick-reaction and even limited expeditionary capability, redefining its constitutionally designated mission to include preemptive doctrine. Analysts suggest that the evolving balance of power between these two institutions will be pivotal to Iran's future political trajectory, particularly in any post-Khamenei succession scenario where the IRGC is expected to play the role of "kingmaker."geopoliticalfutures+3