Pen Meets Paper April 26'10

by Helge Nome
Global warming? Global cooling? Are we going to warm up or chill down in Alberta this summer. Or on the rest of the planet for that matter?
The evidence is confusing to say the least: Tropical downpours in Arizona this winter and snow in Florida, as reported by a recently returned local snowbird. There is evidence that we are dealing with a complex phenomenon beyond our predictive ability.
The evidence on hand is just too confusing to fit into a neat and simple theory, like global warming or cooling. You can pretty well pick and choose evidence to fit your favorite theory.
That said, is it possible to make any kind of prediction as to what to wear this summer?
I think so. First, the so called greenhouse gases that we are manifestly emitting into the atmosphere are not causing global warming per se, but they are affecting our atmosphere in ways that tend to melt glaziers. Possibly by altering the filter effect of the atmosphere so as to admit more energy at wavelengths that tend to destroy the ice crystals that make up glaziers. Secondly, Aten, our Lord and master in the sky, also called “the Sun” in our objectifying culture, is literally taking a rest right now with an overall reduced energy output. In fact, he is now about two years late in starting another 11 year (or so) sunspot cycle which involves increased energy emissions that tends to warm up the room inside the heliosphere that protects the planetary space in our solar system from harmful cosmic radiation.
I think that the above evidence tends to dispense with the idea of imminent global warming. On the contrary, the space around Aten is cooling down just like the room in a house will do when the central heating source is turned down. The complicating factor is the changing nature of Earth’s atmosphere while this is going on.
And the whole notion of “climate change” is semantic fiction. One cannot speak meaningfully about climate without dealing with a very long time span. A far more accurate term is “weather change” and the evidence is very supportive of this notion.
So, back to the original question, I think it is likely that we here in Alberta, and folks elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, will spend less time in a swimsuit this summer than in previous years.