Aggregate soil moisture across Alberta has been experiencing a steady decline in 2025, with both surface and sub-surface reserves falling below historical averages in most regions.
Key findings from recent reports:
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Surface soil moisture: As of June 2025, the provincial rating for surface soil moisture in the "good-to-excellent" category is at 20%, which is substantially below the 5- and 10-year averages of 61%1. This decline is attributed to ongoing dry and windy conditions, which have accelerated evaporation and reduced soil water retention23.
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Sub-surface soil moisture: The provincial sub-surface "good-to-excellent" rating is 26%, also well below the 5-year average of 56% and the 10-year average of 58%1. Regional breakdowns highlight particularly acute deficits:
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South Region: 19% (5-year average: 46%)
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Central Region: 35% (5-year average: 56%)
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North East Region: 18% (5-year average: 70%)
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North West Region: 32% (5-year average: 49%)
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Peace Region: 36% (5-year average: 72%)1
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Recent precipitation patterns: While some localized areas, especially in southern and central Alberta, have experienced near-normal soil moisture due to timely spring rains, much of the province remains 25 to 50 mm below normal for the 365-day precipitation accumulation45. The variability is high, with some fields showing near-normal reserves and others at multi-year lows43.
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Long-term trends and climate impacts: Over the past decade, Alberta has seen increasingly erratic precipitation patterns, with longer dry spells and more intense but less frequent rainfall events67. This has led to a gradual depletion of both soil moisture and groundwater reserves, particularly in the southern prairies, where severe moisture deficits now occur in 3 out of 5 growing seasons67. Extended drought periods have become more common, with the average duration of drought events increasing by 30% over the past two decades6.
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Agricultural implications: The declining soil moisture is not supportive of advanced crop development, especially as deeper reserves are needed during reproductive growth stages1. Farmers are increasingly relying on precision irrigation, soil moisture sensors, conservation tillage, and drought-resistant crop varieties to adapt to these conditions897.
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Regional variability: While some regions (notably parts of the Peace and North West) have seen short-term improvements, the overall trend remains downward, with most areas reporting below-average reserves and increased risk of drought stress on crops1510.
In summary: Alberta is experiencing a broad-based, steady decline in aggregate soil moisture in 2025, with both surface and sub-surface levels well below historical norms in most agricultural zones. This trend is driven by a combination of persistent dry weather, shifting precipitation patterns, and longer-term climate variability, posing significant challenges for crop production and water management across the province167.
- https://www.saddlehills.ab.ca/news/posts/alberta-crop-report-june-10-2025/
- https://www.seed.ab.ca/seeding-nears-completion-but-moisture-concerns-loom/
- https://www.lakelandtoday.ca/bonnyville-news/soil-moisture-levels-increase-from-last-year-though-drought-still-a-threat-10537260
- https://www.saddlehills.ab.ca/news/posts/moisture-update-may-21-2025/
- https://www.countyofnorthernlights.com/index-pages/news/agricultural-moisture-update
- https://organicagcentre.ca/water-management-and-conservation/water-and-environmental-impact/albertas-water-crisis-how-climate-change-threatens-your-farms-future/
- https://organicagcentre.ca/uncategorized/these-drought-tough-crops-are-saving-alberta-farms-real-results-inside/
- https://organicagcentre.ca/soil-health-and-carbon-management/regional-soil-management/smart-water-tech-thats-revolutionizing-albertas-soil-health/
- https://organicagcentre.ca/uncategorized/why-albertas-dry-climate-farms-are-thriving-despite-the-drought-2/
- https://www.seed.ab.ca/farmers-are-enjoying-good-conditions-throughout-the-province/
- https://open.alberta.ca/publications/moisture-situation-update
- https://grainswest.com/2025/01/soil-situation-varies/
- https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/9fcc7dca-c331-4494-9f60-1c749a08842a/resource/6c1dac13-77e8-4127-b8eb-73a9da63d7f3/download/msc-01-water-supplying-capacity-of-alberta-soils.pdf
- https://organicagcentre.ca/uncategorized/stop-soil-erosion-cold-alberta-farmers-battle-tested-solutions-that-work/
- https://albertacanola.com/news/increased-moisture-for-much-of-alberta-but-the-peace/
- https://albertainnovates.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/WIP-WSWM-2344-N-Adapting-to-Changing-Water-in-Alberta.pdf
- https://www.topcropmanager.com/alberta-ag-moisture-update/
- https://www.ualberta.ca/en/alberta-land-institute/media-library/documents/research/community_resource_guide_-healthy_soils.pdf
- https://oldmanwatershed.ca/blog-posts/2025/4/7/2025-spring-forecast
- https://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/newslett.nsf/pdf/agnw7049/$file/April%2011.pdf?OpenElement
- https://centralalbertaonline.com/articles/the-lack-of-moisture-is-becoming-more-of-a-concern-in-alberta
- https://www.seed.ab.ca/fall-cover-cropping-ensures-long-term-nutrient-release-into-soil/
- https://www.alberta.ca/drought-current-conditions
- https://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/ba3468a2a8681f69872569d60073fde1/af8a084d3073512587256e8c004a26f1/$FILE/wind_eros_annotate_biblio.pdf
- https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/ab49b42e-7ff6-4e61-b568-20e840a68b9d/resource/e67e6d49-02e0-46b4-aee8-e3933f073907/download/soil-moisture-temperature-consideration.pdf
- https://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agdex3894/$file/541-1.pdf?OpenElement
- https://www.producer.com/daily/alberta-crop-report-conditions-improve/
- https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/7f120a3d-ab9d-4731-b2f4-b1b8f1fea7af
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169420305643
- https://open.alberta.ca/publications?+Parks=&pubtype=Serial&language=en-CA+%5Bdefault%5D&tags=soil+moisture
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-13165-x
- https://www.awchome.ca/projects/resources-support-drought-management-32/
- https://www.saddlehills.ab.ca/news/posts/moisture-update-july-10-2024/
- https://www.syngenta.ca/market-news/alberta-crop-condition-ratings-up-slightly
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