Israel's current military campaign against Iran, which began on June 13, 2025, under the name "Operation Rising Lion," has sparked intense speculation about whether regime change in Tehran is an explicit or emerging goal. While Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that the primary objectives are to dismantle Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, there are growing indications and rhetoric from senior figures, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that suggest regime change is being considered or even subtly pursued.
Officially, regime change is not a stated aim of Israel's military operations. The Israeli military and security cabinet have emphasized that the campaign's focus is on neutralizing Iran's nuclear and missile threats, which Israel views as an existential danger [1][2][3][4]. However, Netanyahu and other leaders have openly flirted with the idea of regime change in recent media appearances. In interviews with Fox News, ABC News, and Iranian opposition outlets, Netanyahu has suggested that the current conflict could lead to the fall of Iran's regime, stating that killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could "end the conflict" and that the regime is "very weak" [5][1][6][3]. He has also directly addressed the Iranian people, encouraging them to seize the opportunity to overthrow their government and achieve freedom [2].
Beyond rhetoric, Israel's military actions appear to be expanding in scope, targeting not just nuclear and military infrastructure but also civilian and state institutions, such as Iran's state TV studios and energy production sites. These strikes, which Israeli officials claim are intended to weaken the regime's propaganda and operational capabilities, have fueled speculation that the campaign is aiming to destabilize the Iranian government itself [1][7]. Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued warnings to Khamenei, comparing his potential fate to that of Saddam Hussein, further amplifying the regime change narrative [2].
Despite these signals, there is no consensus within Israel or among its allies on pursuing regime change. Israeli officials have confirmed to Axios that it is not an official war goal, and internal discussions, while growing louder, have not yet translated into a formal directive [1][8]. Internationally, the United States, under President Donald Trump, supports Israel's efforts to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities but has expressed reservations about broader objectives like regime change. Trump reportedly opposed an Israeli plan to assassinate Khamenei, citing concerns about escalation, and U.S. officials have summarized his stance as preferring "the Ayatollah you know versus the Ayatollah you don't know" [1][2][3].
Analysts and observers note that while the Iranian regime has not faced widespread internal protests since the conflict began, prolonged military pressure could weaken its security and intelligence apparatus over time, potentially creating conditions for instability [1]. Netanyahu himself has drawn historical parallels, suggesting that unexpected collapses like those of the Soviet Union or Syria's Assad regime could occur in Iran [1].
In summary, while Israel's official stance remains focused on dismantling Iran's nuclear and missile programs, the rhetoric and actions of its leaders indicate that regime change in Tehran is at least an unstated or potential outcome they are willing to entertain. The situation remains fluid, with international backing for Israel's defensive aims but significant caution regarding broader ambitions [5][1][2].
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- https://www.axios.com/2025/06/17/iran-regime-change-israel-war-trump
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/five-days-into-iran-war-israel-emanates-confidence-flirts-with-regime-change/
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-regime-change-iran-could-be-result-israels-attacks-2025-06-15/
- https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250617-what-israel-really-wants-in-iran
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/us/politics/regime-change-israel-iran-trump.html
- https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/israel-iran-netanyahu-khamenei-trump-regime-change-rcna213425
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/15/israel-iran-regime-change-targets/
- https://thecradle.co/articles-id/31417
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