How will prolonged drought affect civilization?

Prolonged drought has historically posed a profound threat to civilizations, often contributing to their decline or transformation. The impacts of extended drought can be observed through both ancient and modern lenses, with several key effects:

• Collapse of Agricultural Systems: Drought disrupts the water supply necessary for agriculture, leading to crop failures, food shortages, and famine. For example, the Indus Valley Civilization experienced a series of severe, multi-generational droughts that undermined both summer and winter cropping seasons, forcing a shift from large urban centers to smaller rural settlements and a reliance on drought-tolerant crops like millet15. Similarly, the Maya civilization faced a dramatic decrease in rainfall, devastating crops and making the land uninhabitable in some regions36.

• : As water sources dry up and food becomes scarce, populations are often forced to abandon cities and migrate in search of more favorable conditions. The Indus people, for instance, gradually abandoned their thriving urban centers and migrated toward regions with more reliable water sources15. Migration can also lead to competition for resources and conflict with neighboring groups28.

• : Drought can exacerbate social tensions, leading to public health crises, increased conflict over dwindling resources, and changes in governance or societal organization. The stress of resource scarcity may contribute to political instability and, in some cases, warfare248.

• Transformation Rather Than Total Collapse: While prolonged drought can trigger the decline of complex societies, it does not always result in complete societal collapse. Many populations adapt by changing agricultural practices, building water storage infrastructure, or reorganizing social structures. For example, after the decline of Indus megacities, rural populations persisted and adapted to the new environmental conditions15. Similarly, recent research on the Maya suggests that responses to drought were highly variable, with some communities maintaining agricultural productivity and adapting in diverse ways7.

• Long-term Cultural and Economic Shifts: Extended droughts can lead to lasting changes in settlement patterns, economic systems, and cultural practices. The decline of major Bronze Age civilizations around the Mediterranean has also been linked to drought, with evidence from pollen records showing a shift in vegetation and land use9.

In summary, prolonged drought threatens the foundations of civilization by undermining food security, destabilizing societies, and forcing migration and adaptation. While some societies have demonstrated resilience and adaptability, others have experienced significant decline or transformation as a result of sustained arid conditions134569.

1. https://www.nature.com/articles/nindia.2018.61
2. https://drought.unl.edu/Education/DroughtforKids/DroughtEffects.aspx
3. https://www.americanscientist.org/article/climate-and-the-collapse-of-maya-civilization
4. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/1010/climate-change-and-the-rise-and-fall-of-civilizations/
5. https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/prolonged-droughts-likely-spelled-the-end-for-indus-megacities
6. https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewgabriele/2018/08/10/drought-mayan-civilization-we-already-knew-that/
7. https://www.brandeis.edu/now/2021/november/maya-research-golden.html
8. https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4252358-drought-migration-and-the-fall-of-civilization-a-cautionary-tale/
9. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/131024-drought-bronze-age-pollen-archaeology