The mainstream climate change prediction for the Canadian Prairies suggests an overall increase in precipitation, with a shift toward more rainfall in winter and spring, often falling earlier in the year, and a potential decrease in summer precipitation. However, recent data and reports indicate that this predicted shift toward earlier rainfall is not consistently occurring as expected across the region.
Climate models have projected that the Prairies will experience an increase in annual precipitation by 6-15% by the end of the century, depending on emission scenarios, with more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow due to warmer temperatures. Specifically, winter and spring precipitation is expected to rise, leading to earlier snowmelt and runoff, while summer precipitation may decrease in parts of southern Canada1234. This shift is anticipated to result in earlier and more intense rainfall events, contributing to risks like flooding in spring, alongside reduced water availability in summer due to decreased snowpack and increased evaporation125.
However, current observations and short-term weather patterns do not fully align with these long-term predictions of earlier rainfall. For instance, recent reports from 2025 indicate that while some areas of the Prairies received significant rainfall in May, boosting soil moisture after dry spells, the region has also experienced inconsistent precipitation patterns in recent weeks. Soil moisture levels have become critical in areas like Saskatchewan, with 53% of soils reported as short to very short in early June 2025, reflecting insufficient rainfall during key growing periods despite forecasts for rain in extended ranges67. Additionally, winter precipitation trends have shown variability, with some data indicating a decline in winter precipitation over the period of 1948-2019 in parts of the Prairies, contrary to projections of increases8. Reports from March 2025 also highlight very dry conditions in southwestern Alberta during the winter of 2024-2025, with less than 45% of normal precipitation received, suggesting that the expected increase in winter and early spring rainfall is not uniformly occurring9.
Historical trends further complicate the picture. While annual precipitation has increased by 7% across the Prairies between 1948 and 2012, and studies show a rise in low-intensity precipitation events over the last 75 years, there is no clear evidence of a consistent shift to earlier rainfall dominating the seasonal distribution as predicted by models104. Research also notes significant increases in May-June precipitation in the southeastern Prairies since the 1990s, which aligns partially with predictions of earlier rainfall, but this is not uniform across the region or consistent year-to-year11.
In summary, while climate change models predict more earlier rainfall on the Prairies, particularly in winter and spring, recent observations and historical data suggest this shift is not yet consistently evident. Variability in precipitation timing and amounts, coupled with recent dry spells and declining winter precipitation in some areas, indicates that the predicted patterns are not fully manifesting to date. Long-term trends may still emerge as warming continues, but short-term weather patterns and regional differences are currently creating discrepancies between predictions and reality.
- https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/what-will-climate-change-actually-look-like-on-the-prairies-1.6325834
- https://climatewest.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Snapshot-Changing_Prairie-Climate-2022.pdf
- https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/canadian-centre-climate-services/basics/trends-projections/changes-precipitation.html
- https://www.davey.com/media/mcrh0woz/ca-prarie-provinces-projections-623.pdf
- https://programs.wcs.org/canadanew/Latest-News/ID/17217/What-will-climate-change-actually-look-like-on-the-Prairies.aspx
- https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2025/05/16/favorable-rain-recent-dryness-still
- https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2025/06/06/extended-forecast-needed-rainfall-2
- https://climatewest.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Dr.-Morrison-slides.pdf
- https://www.drought.gov/documents/quarterly-climate-impacts-and-outlook-prairies-and-high-plains-march-2025
- https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/12/10/1520-0442_1999_012_2996_ptotcp_2.0.co_2.pdf
- https://natural-resources.canada.ca/sites/nrcan/files/earthsciences/pdf/assess/2016/Chapter-5e.pdf
- https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/cee3d571-9d0f-4b8c-a71f-2c2b1f4616f9/resource/4200f0af-4077-4740-a546-5f085d6a0ad1/download/aenv-canadian-prairie-drought-a-climatological-assessment-6673.pdf
- https://natural-resources.canada.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/Climate-change/pdf/CCCR-Chapter4-TemperatureAndPrecipitationAcrossCanada.pdf
- https://changingclimate.ca/regional-perspectives/chapter/4-0/
- https://www.canada1water.ca/blog/global-news-incredibly-destructive-canadas-prairies-to-see-devastating-impact-climate-change
- https://grandeprairie.weatherstats.ca/charts/rain-daily.html
- https://climate.weather.gc.ca/historical_data/search_historic_data_e.html
- https://grandeprairie.weatherstats.ca/charts/precipitation-monthly.html
- https://grandeprairie.weatherstats.ca/charts/precipitation-daily.html
- https://www.producer.com/news/prairie-precipitation-predictions-right-amounts-at-the-wrong-times/
- https://learnnetwork.ualberta.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/70/2018/07/PR_01_2014_Ayouqi-Vercammen.pdf
- https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/12/10/1520-0442_1999_012_2996_ptotcp_2.0.co_2.xml
- https://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/En56-119-1-1997E.pdf
- https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/89a69583-a11b-4e31-a857-b311ab6563cc/resource/17ce2d24-ba7b-466c-acd9-33a2cf6beb69/download/aep-alberta-climate-report-arc.pdf
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