Message from Charles Aulds

 This is very local ... snowfall measured at the Greater Moncton Romeo LeBlanc International Airport.

Remember: there is NO evidence that the climate is changing. The changes you perceive are figments of your imagination. 

State of the Colorado River System — April 2026

Overview

The Colorado River is entering one of the most precarious junctures in its modern management history. A 25-year megadrought — compounded by a warm, near-snowless winter in 2025–2026 — has pushed the system's two flagship reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, to critically low levels, with combined storage at just 36% of total capacity as of March 29, 2026, down from 41% at the same point last year. This comes precisely as the legal and governance architecture that has managed the river since 2007 expires, with seven states still unable to agree on replacement rules and the federal government preparing to impose its own plan.[1][2][3][4]

Reservoir Conditions: Current Elevations

As of the March 29, 2026 weekly USBR update, official gauge data shows:

Reservoir	Elevation (feet)	% Full	Projected End-2026 (feet)	7-Day Release (CFS)
Lake Powell	3,528.22	25%	3,488.39	8,100
Lake Mead	1,062.69	33%	1,056.87	16,300
Combined System	—	36%	—	—

Lake Powell's projected end-of-year 2026 elevation of 3,488.39 feet is critically significant: it sits just 1.6 feet below minimum power pool (3,490 feet) — the level at which Glen Canyon Dam's eight turbines must be shut down to prevent catastrophic cavitation damage. Lake Mead, the nation's largest reservoir, is at 33% capacity and federal projections now see it declining to 1,056.87 feet by end-2026 and as low as 1,032.76 feet by November 2027 — which would be nearly 8 feet below the 2022 record low.[5][6][7][8]

The Snowpack Catastrophe

The core driver of 2026's crisis is a near-total collapse of Upper Basin snowpack. As of late March:

• Upper Basin snowpack: 3.87 inches — only 27% of normal (down from 45% the prior week)[1]
• Upper Basin precipitation (water year to date): 13.39 inches — 81% of normal[1]
• Forecasted April–July 2026 inflow to Lake Powell: 1,750 kaf — just 27% of normal, worsened from 36% the prior month[1]
• Full water year 2026 inflow to Lake Powell: 4,401 kaf — 46% of normal[1]

Earlier forecasts had projected only ~2.3 million acre-feet of spring runoff reaching Lake Powell, roughly one-third of normal, and NOAA's Cody Moser warned in mid-March that conditions were likely to trend even lower. An anomalously warm winter caused what little snow fell in the Rockies to melt early and fall as rain rather than accumulate as snowpack, denying the basin its critical late-season release that normally sustains summer reservoir levels.[9][10]

The Glen Canyon Dam Infrastructure Crisis

Lake Powell's declining levels expose a structural engineering problem built into Glen Canyon Dam 60 years ago. At minimum power pool (3,490 feet), the dam's eight turbines must be shut down — but the only remaining outlet at that level is a series of bypass tubes with limited discharge capacity that were never designed for long-term operation. These tubes have suffered prior structural damage during low-water operation.[11][12][8]

Federal projections released in late February 2026 indicate Lake Powell could drop below minimum power pool as early as November 2026, threatening:

• Loss of all hydropower at Glen Canyon Dam — the first time since its 1966 opening[13][12]
• Severely restricted water releases downstream through the Grand Canyon, cutting supplies to Arizona, Nevada, and California[11][13]
• Structural risks to the dam itself if forced to operate exclusively through bypass tubes for extended periods[12][8]

Environmental groups call this an "impending crisis" and argue that Glen Canyon Dam — rather than drought alone — is now the river's most acute physical bottleneck.[13][11]

Political Crisis: Failed Negotiations and Expired Rules

The hydrological crisis unfolds against a governance vacuum. The 2007 Interim Operating Guidelines that have governed how Powell and Mead manage releases and share shortages expire at the end of 2026, and seven basin states have missed multiple federal deadlines — November 2025, and then February 14, 2026 — without reaching a replacement agreement.[2][14]

The core fault line runs between the Upper Basin states (Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico) and the Lower Basin states (Arizona, Nevada, California):

• Lower Basin states (AZ, NV, CA) have already accepted substantial voluntary cuts for years, with Arizona offering 27%, Nevada 17%, and California 10% reductions[4]
• Upper Basin states have resisted any mandatory cuts, arguing their water use supports economic development aspirations they are unwilling to abandon[15]

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum summoned all seven governors to Washington, D.C. in early February 2026, with six of seven attending; California was represented by Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot. Despite this pressure, no deal was reached by the February 14 deadline. The Bureau of Reclamation has set October 1, 2026 as the hard deadline for new operating guidelines to be in place — failing which, it will unilaterally impose its own plan.[16][17][18][2]

Legal action now appears increasingly likely. Without a voluntary agreement, the Lower Basin states may seek to enforce existing Compact obligations in federal court — a process that could take years and leave management rules in limbo.[2][4]

Tribal Nations: 100 Years of Exclusion Meets a Crisis

Twenty-two tribal nations hold legally recognized rights to approximately 3.2 million acre-feet of Colorado River water annually — about 25% of the basin's average supply — yet most lack the infrastructure to use it, and the 1922 Colorado River Compact excluded them entirely from the foundational law of the river.[19][20]

As post-2026 negotiations intensify, tribal representatives have become increasingly assertive. The Ute Indian Tribe holds 500,000 acre-feet in senior Green River rights in Utah but lacks infrastructure to use it, meaning the water simply flows downstream uncompensated. The Navajo Nation, Hopi Tribe, and San Juan Southern Paiute are seeking ratification of the Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement Act (NAIWRSA) pending before Congress. The Colorado River Indian Tribes (CRIT) — holding among the most senior water rights on the lower river — passed a landmark resolution granting the Colorado River legal personhood under tribal law, a rights-of-nature declaration that could enable CRIT to sue over damage to the river in tribal court.[21][22][23]

The 30 basin tribes have collectively called for a permanent seat at the negotiating table for any post-2026 management framework, asserting that no legitimate deal can be reached without them.[23][20]

Agricultural and Urban Impacts

Arizona faces the sharpest immediate exposure. The Central Arizona Project (CAP) — the canal system serving Phoenix and Tucson — holds junior water rights under the 1922 Compact, making it first in line for cuts during shortage conditions. CAP farmers have already been forced to leave fields dry in 2025 and 2026; further cuts will push Arizona cities to accelerate groundwater pumping, which is also declining in many areas.[4]

The Colorado River system irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland and supplies municipal water to roughly 40 million people across seven U.S. states and Mexico. Since 2000, the river's total flow has shrunk by approximately 20%, driven by a combination of warming temperatures, evaporative demand, and a precipitation regime shift in the Rocky Mountain headwaters.[7][10][5][4]

Mexico's 2026 allocation under Minute 323 and the Binational Water Scarcity Contingency Plan also faces proportional cuts: Mexico is required to contribute 80,000 acre-feet reduction under current Level 1 shortage conditions.[24]

Spring and Summer 2026 Outlook

The outlook for spring and summer recovery is bleak. Key indicators:

• Snowpack has already peaked for the season across most of the Upper Basin — remaining snowpack at 27% of normal will generate less inflow than almost any year on record[9][1]
• Lake Mead basin precipitation is running above normal (115% of water year) in the Lower Basin, offering modest offset[1]
• Evaporative conditions are worsening: record-breaking spring heat in March 2026 is causing early snowmelt to evaporate before reaching the river[10]
• Lake Powell projected end-of-year elevation (3,488.39 feet) sits below minimum power pool, making a hydropower shutdown by late 2026 more likely than not[6][1]
• NOAA's long-range precipitation outlook does not show significant relief for the Upper Basin through late spring[9]

The combined system held 21.33 million acre-feet as of March 29, 2026 — down from 23.86 million acre-feet a year earlier, a loss of 2.53 million acre-feet in one year. Without a dramatic reversal in precipitation — not forecast — the system will likely end 2026 at its lowest combined storage since filling began in the 1960s.[3][1]

References

• [PDF] Lower Colorado Weekly Hydrologic Update: March 23, 2026
• As a Colorado River deadline passes, reservoirs keep declining - Seven states have missed a federal deadline to reach a water deal on the Colorado River. They remain...
• Colorado River Conditions Dashboard - Central Arizona Project - Current Colorado River conditions dashboard includes the system contents, reservoir capacities (MAF)...
• The crisis on the Colorado River — six things to know - Reservoirs are declining to critically low levels. And the leaders of seven states are still at logg...
• Lake Mead's Water Forecast Just Got Worse - Concerning new federal projects for the reservoir were released on Friday.
• Spring Runoff Projections for Colorado River Basin Worsen - Bureau of Reclamation
• Lake Mead Gets Worrying New Water Level Forecast - Water levels at the reservoir could hit 1036.5 feet in 2027, according to new projections.
• The coming failure of Glen Canyon Dam - High Country News - While the seven Colorado River Basin states try to reach agreement over how to divvy up diminishing ...
• Colorado River flows drop to crisis levels | Western Water
• Colorado River crisis: How record spring heat impacts Western ... - Record-breaking spring heat is triggering an early snowpack melt, causing vital water to evaporate b...
• Groups sound alarm on 'impending crisis' at Glen Canyon Dam as ... - Two environmental groups worry that as drought causes Lake Powell's levels to drop infrastructure at...
• Glen Canyon Dam's FATAL Design Flaw — Lake Powell Dropping to Shutdown Level by 2026! - Glen Canyon Dam, the 710-foot concrete giant holding back Lake Powell on the Colorado River, is faci...
• New Bureau of Reclamation Projections Highlight Impending Crisis ...
• Colorado River states see possible breakthrough as deadline looms - A top Interior Department official told negotiators they must have a plan by Nov. 11 or face the fed...
• These Four States Are in Denial Over a Looming Water Crisis - Fleck projected that the Lower Basin's Colorado River consumption in 2025 would be its lowest since ...
• Negotiations stall on Colorado River water-sharing pact - With a critical Nov. 11 deadline fast approaching, negotiators from the seven Colorado River basin s...
• Colorado River negotiations in murky waters after DC ... - The Department of the Interior called seven governors to Washington to try to push the states closer...
• Colorado River basin governors head to Washington for agreement - Feb. 14. That’s the next deadline for the seven states of the Colorado River to reach an agreement o...
• Officials propose historic agreement to permanently include tribes in Colorado River matters - LAS VEGAS — For tribal nations in the Colorado River Basin, repairing a century of exclusion is a cr...
• Tribal interests in the future of the Colorado River - The Colorado River Basin is home to thirty federally recognized Tribal Nations, each with unique his...
• The Impacts of the Post-2026 Colorado River Discussions on Tribal ... - The University of Denver Water Law Review is an internationally circulated, semi-annual publication ...
• The Colorado River is this tribe's 'lifeblood,' now they want to give it ... - The move, by the Colorado River Indian Tribes in Arizona and California would give rights of nature ...
• Tribes fight for their voice in Colorado River decision-making - Colorado River officials have less than two months to make a decision regarding the future of the ri...
• COLORADO RIVER: Reclamation announces 2026 operating ... - Latest projections stress the need for robust operational agreements for the Colorado River after 20...

State of the Mississippi River System — April 2026

 

Overview

As of early April 2026, the Mississippi River system is enduring one of its most severe multi-year hydrological crises on record. Flow on the lower river is running at approximately 61% of normal, potentially the driest start to a year in over a century. The crisis is structural, not episodic: this is the fourth consecutive year of extreme low-flow conditions across the basin, driven by chronic drought in the Ohio River Valley — the Mississippi's largest tributary — and compounded by an anomalously warm, dry winter across the southern basin.[1][2][3][4]

The Ohio River Collapse: Root Cause of the Crisis

The single most critical factor driving conditions on the lower Mississippi is the near-total failure of the Ohio River's normal contribution. Under historical averages, the Ohio River supplies roughly 50% of all flow reaching the Lower Mississippi at Cairo, Illinois — more than the Upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers combined.[5][4]

In February 2026, the Ohio's flow dropped to just 31,400 cubic feet per second — its 7-day average — contributing only 8–10% of Mississippi River flow instead of the expected 50%. The historical average at that gauge is approximately 281,000 CFS. The Ohio River basin was closed to navigation for 53 days in 2025, and at least 18 days already in 2026 by February.[4]

Hydrologists and analysts describe this not as a temporary anomaly but as a structural precipitation regime shift in the Ohio River basin — annual rainfall totals remain broadly similar, but are now concentrated in intense winter storms rather than distributed as steady year-round rainfall, leaving soils chronically dry and unable to generate sustained river flow. The NWS spring precipitation forecast (issued mid-February) projected below-average precipitation for March through May across most of the Ohio basin, meaning the deficit is unlikely to recover before summer.[4]

Water Levels Along the Mainstem

Conditions vary from north to south across the 2,350-mile river corridor:

Segment	Condition (Early 2026)	Key Notes
Upper Mississippi (MN/WI/IA)	Near normal to slightly below	Spring flood risk near to below normal; below 50% chance of any flooding[6]
Middle Mississippi (MO/IL/KY)	Below normal; some improvement from Feb rains	St. Louis gauge near –1 to –3 ft low threshold[7]; barge restrictions in place since early Jan[8]
Lower Mississippi (AR/MS/LA)	Severely below normal	10+ feet below average near Baton Rouge[9][1]; flow ~61% of normal[1][2]
Mississippi at New Orleans	Well below normal	Saltwater intrusion threat active; flood stage is 17 ft[10]

The gauge at Baton Rouge — a key monitoring point — recorded levels more than 10 feet below their mid-March average. In the Upper Mississippi corridor near Iowa, the NWS reported a below-normal spring flood risk, with snowpack running about normal and most tributaries holding less than a 50% chance of any flooding.[11][6][2][1]

Navigation and Shipping Restrictions

The U.S. Coast Guard has maintained active low-water safety advisories on the Lower Mississippi River continuously since early January 2026. As of late January, restrictions on Lower Mississippi River Mile Markers 303–869 included:[12][13]

• Southbound tows (MM 869–585): Barge drafts not to exceed 10'6", configurations no more than 6 wide
• Southbound tows (MM 585–303): Drafts not to exceed 11'6", no more than 7 wide
• Northbound tows (MM 869–303): Drafts not to exceed 10', no more than 4 wide (loaded), 6 wide overall, 7 long overall

Standard barge tows require a minimum 12 feet of navigable depth; below 10 feet, navigation becomes physically impossible. Additional ice-related restrictions were imposed on the Upper River in early February 2026, limiting tow widths at Melvin Price Locks and Dam and Lock 27.[14][15]

These restrictions directly affect the $500 billion Mississippi River shipping system, which moves approximately 60% of U.S. grain exports and handles enormous volumes of fertilizer, coal, petroleum, and other commodities. This marks the fourth consecutive fall/winter season with navigation restrictions on the Lower Mississippi, an unprecedented streak.[7][4]

Saltwater Intrusion at the River's Mouth

A cascading consequence of sustained low flow is saltwater intrusion from the Gulf of Mexico into the lower reaches of the river — a threat that has materialized for the fourth consecutive year.[16][17]

When the Mississippi's flow drops below approximately 300,000 cubic feet per second, the river's freshwater can no longer push back against saltwater at its mouth. Under normal conditions, the bottom of the Mississippi's channel between Natchez and the Gulf of Mexico lies below sea level, meaning denser saltwater naturally intrudes along the riverbed whenever freshwater pressure is insufficient.[17][16]

In response, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) constructed an underwater sill (essentially a submerged levee) at approximately river mile 64 near Myrtle Grove, Louisiana in September–October 2025, completing it in 12 days. This is a mitigation measure the Corps has deployed in 1988, 1999, 2012, 2022, 2023, and 2024 as well — the frequency itself signals the worsening pattern. New Orleans and surrounding communities draw their municipal water supply directly from the river and lack desalination infrastructure; saltwater can also corrode pipes and leach lead into the water system.[18][19][17]

Agricultural and Economic Impacts

The Mississippi corridor is the backbone of U.S. agricultural logistics. Nearly half of all U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat exports travel down the waterway to the Gulf of Mexico. Low river levels raise barge freight rates and reduce cargo capacity, hitting farmers with a "double whammy": lower prices for commodities that can't move as efficiently, plus higher input costs because fertilizer and other imports face the same restrictions moving upriver.[20]

December 2025 ranked as the 12th driest in 131 years for the southern Mississippi basin, and the fifth-warmest December on record for the contiguous U.S. drove extreme evaporative demand across the region, drying soils faster than precipitation could replenish them. Farm bankruptcies jumped 46% in 2025 relative to the prior year as debt loads and costs rose alongside transport constraints.[2][3][21]

Long-term hydrological models already point toward below-average rainfall for fall 2026, raising concerns that the Mississippi could experience a second major navigation shutdown in four years.[15]

Spring 2026 Outlook

The NWS National Hydrologic Assessment (updated March 19, 2026) describes an abnormally warm and dry winter across most of the U.S. that produced low snowpack and dry soils — conditions that mitigate large flood responses but also delay any meaningful flow recovery. Key spring 2026 outlook points:[22]

• Overall flood risk: Normal to below normal across most of the basin[23][22]
• Upper Mississippi (Iowa/Illinois): Below-normal flood risk; spring flood chance less than 50%[6][11]
• Lower Mississippi mainstem: Minor flooding expected; scattered to isolated major flooding possible, primarily near the Ohio–Mississippi confluence[22]
• Ohio River Valley: Near-normal spring flood risk, driven mainly by rainfall events; CPC favors a wetter-than-normal pattern through May, which could modestly aid recovery[24]
• Gulf hypoxia: Normal springtime nutrient discharges into the Gulf of Mexico are predicted, with no major flooding expected to expand the summer "dead zone" beyond typical size[22]

The NWS Paducah office noted that river levels have returned to near-normal in much of the Ohio Valley due to rainfall in early March, and above-normal precipitation is forecast through May — the primary driver that could improve conditions. However, given four years of accumulated soil moisture deficits and depleted groundwater, hydrologists caution that recovery will take months, not weeks.[9][24]

Structural Trends and Long-Term Outlook

What distinguishes the 2026 crisis from prior low-water events is its multi-year, compounding character. The Ohio River — the Mississippi's most critical tributary — has experienced extreme low-flow conditions for four consecutive years without meaningful recovery between events. The basin appears to have undergone a precipitation regime shift: rainfall is now concentrated in winter storm events rather than distributed through the growing and navigation season, stripping soils of the background moisture needed to generate consistent streamflow.[4]

Infrastructure and policy have not kept pace. There is no coordinated interstate management framework for the Ohio River basin analogous to the Colorado River Compact. Cities like Cincinnati that draw drinking water from the Ohio are operating aging intake systems not designed for multi-week low-flow emergencies. The USACE's saltwater sills at the river's mouth — a technology dating to 1988 — are increasingly routine rather than exceptional interventions.[4]

NOAA's long-range outlooks project below-average precipitation for the Ohio basin through at least mid-spring 2026, meaning the window for natural recovery before the critical summer shipping and harvest season is narrow. Without a sustained shift back toward normal precipitation patterns across the Ohio Valley, the Mississippi River system will likely enter its fifth consecutive year of low-flow conditions in late 2026.[22][4]

References

• Mississippi River Drops to 61% Flow — Worst Drought in 132 Years | St. Louis Hits Record Lows - #Mississippi #RiverCrisis #StLouis
  The Mississippi River is experiencing one of its lowest water lev...
• Mississippi River DROPS To 61% Flow — WORST Drought In 132 YEARS As St. Louis Sets RECORD LOWS - The Mississippi River is recording its driest year in over a century, and the numbers keep getting w...
• Winter's Warm Start Dries Out Mississippi Basin - Agrolatam - Unseasonably warm December and high atmospheric demand have dried the Mississippi Basin, lowering ri...
• Ohio River COLLAPSES to 8% — Mississippi's LIFELINE ... - YouTube - The Ohio River normally contributes 50% of the Mississippi River's flow ... 2026, it's flowing at ju...
• Drought and Water Update for the Mississippi River Basin - A widespread area of the Mississippi River Basin is expected to have drought persist (brown) or deve...
• [PDF] 2026 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook
• Low Soil Moisture Makes It Difficult to Use Mississippi River for ... - Despite some good rainfall during the weekend, local rivers, including the Mississippi, have not see...
• SAFETY/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GENERAL/SEC LMR BNM ...
• Mississippi River running 10 feet below average near Baton Rouge - BATON ROUGE — The Mississippi River is starting 2026 on a low note, with water levels slightly below...
• Mississippi River at New Orleans - National Water Prediction Service - ... 1-Apr-2026 ​ Flood Stage is 17 ft. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Observations ... river gauge loc...
• Spring Flood Outlook for the Mississippi River Released | 100.3 WHEB - Lend a Helping Can raises money for 12 New England charitable agencies to feed the Needy and Homeles...
• Broadcast Notices to Mariners Message - Navcen.USCG.gov
• USCG MSIB 26-03 Lower Mississippi River Low Water Conditions ... - Pursuant to the authority of the Captain of the Port (COTP) under the Ports and Waterways Safety Act...
• [PDF] St. Louis District Navigation Channel Condition Status Report
• Mississippi Footage Shows 12-Foot Water Problem Disrupting $120 ... - ... barge traffic, navigation ground to a halt. Barges loaded with soybeans, corn ... barges were de...
• As saltwater flows up the Mississippi River for a third year, the region ... - Plaquemines Parish surrounds the last 70 miles of the Mississippi River, making it susceptible to sa...
• USACE New Orleans District begins constructing underwater sill in ... - The Mississippi River's volume of water has fallen to a level that allows salt water from the Gulf o...
• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Builds La.'s Mississippi River ... - USACE builds underwater saltwater barrier in 12 days on Mississippi River to protect New Orleans' wa...
• About Saltwater Intrusion - NOLA Ready - City of New Orleans - The lack of flow from the river is allowing salty water from the Gulf of Mexico to push its way upri...
• Drought is shrinking Mississippi River levels — again. That's a big ... - Farmers rely on the Mississippi River to ship grain and bring them imported fertilizer and other cri...
• Winter's Warm Start Dries Out Mississippi Basin - Agrolatam - Unseasonably warm December and high atmospheric demand have dried the Mississippi Basin, lowering ri...
• Office of Water Prediction - National Weather Service - For the mainstem of the Lower Ohio and Mississippi rivers, minor flooding is expected this spring wi...
• 2026 Spring Flood Outlook - National Weather Service - 2026 Spring Flood Outlook
• [PDF] 2026 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook - For the Mississippi and local tributaries, spring flood risk is near to below normal. Minor and isol...